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How much will McFadden get the ball?

I ranked all rookies for dynasty leagues today, and there were a lot of tough decisions. Darren McFadden over Jonathan Stewart is not a slam dunk, and I'd take Stewart over McFadden for 2008.

That leads me to my projections for the Raiders. They were among the league leaders last year with 445 carries. I'm going to project about 430 this season. How would you divide them up?

My gut reaction is this:

Darren McFadden - 210
Justin Fargas - 150
Michael Bush - 50
LaMont Jordan - 20

How would you break it down?

Comments

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Yeah, I really see Jordan being the odd man out in this rotation.

I'd like to see Fargas' snaps decrease a little bit and hand them over to Bush - the kid was nasty in college. Imagine if Bush pans out and becomes who many thought he would be when he made the jump to the NFL - pair him with McFadden and you've got a nasty backfield. Too bad about his injury situation though. He's had the time to heal, so anything is possible. They have a nice talent pool at the position. I see this team, and I can't believe I'm about to say this, making some major strides towards becoming a better team. Of course, this hinges on the development of Russel and the health of his weapons (IE one-knee Walker). They are a good defensive team, let's see how the "O" plays this year though.

I think Jordan gets cut to make cap room on or after June 1, especially with the size of the contract McFadden should command, so the question may come down to McFadden, Fargas and Bush.

If 430 is the baseline of carries available, my guess would be very similar to Gregg's: McFadden - 200, Fargas - 150, and Bush - 80. They're not going to want to over-use McFadden with two other capable backs. Bush really is the wild card here... he could be the best blocker and play on 3rd downs or get a silly goal-line workload like Brandon Jacobs rookie year (something like 38 carries, 7 tds).

Speaking of contracts, given the holdout of Russell last year and the price tag McFadden may be looking for, does he set himself up for another Raiders holdout? If so, what are the chances of a lost year and a Cedric Benson/Thomas Jones type of situation with Fargas/Bush?

Greg, I think your workload guess is pretty much right on.
McFadden should be too good to allow anyone to catch him in carries- but the lack of goal line (he certainly won't be the goal line back) work will drive owners NUTS!

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