Tough to Rank: Lee Evans
I have broken ground on our magazine, meaning this is the time of year to put together my first rough rankings for 2008. The Draft and offseason activities will change things, but I like getting a skeleton list up early to build off.
Each year, a handful of players at each position are the most difficult to rank. The kind that could be in the top ten or out of the top-25. I'm going to profile these players occasionally here and ask for your opinion. The first player we'll look at is Lee Evans.
Evans wasn't just one of the best young receivers in football in 2006; he was one of the five best receivers period. It didn't completely show up in his fantasy stats because of the team he played on, but he entered his fourth season with top-five fantasy upside if the Buffalo offense could improve. It didn't and Evans did not rise above his surroundings.
Evans slid back to 849 yards and five scores last year, arguably the worst year of his career. So how do we view him in 2008 ... Is he a potential top-ten talent or an inconsistent big-play threat destined to let us down?
Always looking for bounceback value, I lean toward the former. The Bills passing attack doesn't look great, but I expect growth from Trent Edwards. He's still difficult to rank. Do we place him above solid veterans like Laveranues Coles, Jerricho Cotchery, and Hines Ward, or closer to a WR3 rank in the mid-twenties where his boom or bust potential is less risky. (And owners are less likely to actually get him). I have my opinions, but let me know what you think.
Comments
It would depend upon your league's setup. For example, if you have a league where each team selects 5 or 6 WRs, but only starts 2 or maybe 3, then I would make him a WR3. I would place him below a WR that would put up more consistent weekly points.
In a league that has 10 WRs per team and starts 9 or all 10, then he would be a potential top-10 talent.
I am in league's that follow both of the examples above, so it would be dependent upon the league rules. Boy, I hate giving away strategies to those in my league that maybe reading this. :-) But, there it is.
Posted by: Rick | March 31, 2008 09:03 AM
Lee Evans is someone that looks better to everyone else except those that own him. He's got the talent, there's no question about that.
But the top ten WRs always rise above bad talent, and quite often make their QBs look good.
Evans has not been able to do that. In our PPR league, with 6 pts for TDs and a point for every 20 yards, he still only managed 4 games with double digit points.
What's changed with the offense, other than their continued focus on the run game and Marshawn Lynch?
Most telling, was that the owner in our dynasty league, never played him, yet refused to trade him, just hoping he would reach the potential his talent suggests.
Posted by: Bart | March 31, 2008 10:00 AM
Evans is a really great talent that is limited in his offense.
The Bills did improve their OL during the off-season, and they are certain to center their offense around Lynch's abilities.
That said, Evans will still remain Edward's #1 option in the air, has true big play ability, and Edwards himself should gain some consistency.
I would rate him about middle of the pack with WR1s; Around 12-20 overall. He's a better talent than many other teams #1 WR, but will not be in a high scoring type offense.
Posted by: DoobieBros | March 31, 2008 10:25 AM
Evans is developing a reputation as a fantasy tease, aka Santana Moss. Everyone sees his potential, but when he has performed, its only been over half a season and last year was a total bust. Part of the problem was the rookie QB, part of the problem may have been the offense, but most of it is that Evans is streaky.
My strategy is to bank on consistency. I've won two consecutive titles in my dynasty league banking on players who may not set a yardage record but are consistent week-week. I like Evans, but I wouldn't give up much to acquire him. I would personally rank him in the mid-20's comparable to a Roddy White (who put up good #'s with 3 bad QB's in 07). In a seasonal format, I'd rank Ward, Coles and Cotchery above Evans, who I'd characterize as high-risk/high-reward. In dynasty, the only one of the three who'd be above Evans is Cotchery.
Posted by: Chad Ferguson | March 31, 2008 10:32 AM
Lynch will open thing up for the offense, but with edwards at the helm, buffalo sure didn't take a lot of shots down the field. If they do end up getting a big receiver in the draft I think he will benefit more from lynch's success than Evans will. WIth no legitimate threat at TE it is awfully easy for teams to double cover him or have a safety always rolled over the top too. Bad news for Evans, but good news for those of us smart enough to pass on him year in and year out.
Posted by: John | March 31, 2008 10:35 AM
Trent Edwards + Dick Juaron = Evans languishing in fantasy purgatory
Evans should be billed as a very borderline WR2, but strong WR3. The lure of his potential and the annual possibility that "this might be the year the Bills offense gets it together" will make somebody jump the gun and take him earlier than he should be.
Posted by: endzoneview | March 31, 2008 11:40 AM
Despite different head coaches, offensive coordinators, and quarterbacks, one constant remains in the Bills offense: low passage yardage totals.
2007 Rank 30th
2006 Rank 28th
2005 Rank 29th
2004 Rank 27th
2003 Rank 28th (Note: before Evans arrived, rookie year '04)
Without crunching the numbers, I'm near certain that's worse than anyone over that span other than the post-Garcia Niners.
I personally love the guy, and I feel that on teams that have a consistent base you can play him to try to catch the boom games. However, as someone who traded for him last season right before his midseason boom, you'll still question yourself each and every week, then likely start him and hope for the best. But in the end, the statistics don't lie--relying on him is foolish.
Posted by: ThePieHole | March 31, 2008 12:30 PM