Silence surrounding D-Jax is telling
I'm rounding up the big stories that happened while I was gone, probably for a column. I don't want to repeat myself here too much, but I find the silence following Darrell Jackson's release very telling. Two years ago, this guy was a top-ten fantasy talent. He's only 30, and now he's struggling to find a job. There are a couple lessons here.
1) Fantasy doesn't always meet up with reality
Because of his drops, injuries, attitude, and system, Jackson was never as good as the numbers indicated. Mike Holmgren made him look more consistent than he appeared. His lackluster effort was a bigger problem for his actual owners than his fantasy owners.
2) It's okay to sell low in keeper leagues if it's only going to get lower
I've owned D-Jax in my dynasty league for five years. I always feared the day he left Seattle because I never believed in his skill set. But I was greedy and never moved him when his value was highest. When he finally moved to the 49ers, I struggled to find takers because everyone assumed his numbers would go down, like me.
I still should have just settled and taken what I could get. Sometimes it's worth selling low if you are convinced a player's value is only going to get worse. Trust your gut. At this point, Jackson's value has bottomed out. My league is deep enough that I'll hang on to see what happens, but trading last offseason to the highest bidder would have worked better.
Comments
It was telling that Holmgren traded DJAX to a division rival to begin with.
We're too close to the draft now to expect many more free agent signings, but Jackson will be in training camp for a team that feels they didn't do enough in the draft to address the WR position.
As you mentiond, he's still 30 and should be able to land with a West Coast offense club but his fantasy relevant days are over.
Posted by: endzoneview.blogspot | March 27, 2008 03:27 PM
ya i sold alexander low middle of this past season and peeps laughed at. turned out to be a good move in the end. always know when to fold em.
Posted by: calvinjohnson | March 28, 2008 02:02 AM
I'm in the opposite position, in that, I bought low on DJax last year (for Matt Jones and a swap of 3rd rounders), which ended up being a wash. The Niners were a mess last year and DJax gets too much credit for the bad passing game. Alex Smith = Dave Klingler/Andre Ware/Akili Smith (ie, not even as good as Joey Harrington) and there's no getting around that point. That single pick sinks Mike Nolan as the HC, but Jackson is the scape-goat for this offseason and Martz will have Hill or O'Sullivan starting by midseason. While Jackson may not be one of "Martz's Guys", he is far more talented than the chronic under-achiever, Bryant Johnson. I think part of the silence on DJax is that teams didn't think he'd be released, so no one did any research into him and now they're wondering what was wrong.
I'm looking for him to catch on with a team like the Bucs (Gruden's never met a 30 year-old he didn't want to sign) after the draft. Right now, I see no value, but that changes when teams start filling post-draft holes and he may catch on somewhere. I don't think he'll ever be a #1 again, but DJax>B. Johnson or a 37-year-old Bruce and should be productive somewhere for another year or two. I'll probably hold onto him through training camp and see what happens...
Posted by: Chad Ferguson | March 28, 2008 12:21 PM
yeah im holding on too, tb would be a nice fit if they didnt get a. bryant. and i agree sf didnt really upgrade.
Posted by: gregg | March 28, 2008 01:52 PM
Bryant isn't exactly stiff competition, though, and who knows how long Galloway will be able to hang on. A lot depends, obviously, on the draft, but Philly and Dallas could be good landing spots, too. Outside of those, maybe Chicago or Tennessee, but I wouldn't be too excited about either.
Posted by: Chad Ferguson | March 30, 2008 12:24 AM
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