Is it time to deal LaDainian?
As hard as it is to believe, LaDainian Tomlinson is going to hit his decline one of these years. The trick for keeper and dynasty owners is knowing when to deal him. After seven seasons and 2,918 touches, the moment is closer than some may think.
If I owned Tomlinson, I would put feelers out there to see what type of bounty he'd bring in. I would plan on keeping him one more season, then dealing him, but would keep my mind open to being blown away by an offer.
I participate in only one keeper league, an insanely deep 16-team dynasty league with 45-man offseason rosters and eleven IDP starters. The league's defending champion is the best fantasy football owner I've ever seen. He's ruthless, active, and a great judge of talent. And he just dealt LT2.
Every running back must decline, and it's often a swift one. Tomlinson is only a year away from his age-30 season, although you'd have to look hard to see evidence of a slowdown at this point. I'd only deal him if I was getting a younger true RB1 in return, but those deals should be available. It is hard to let go of a player that has carried fantasy teams for most of the decade, but Tomlinson's value will never be higher than it is right now.
Comments
Great question. I've been debating on whether to draft Tomlinson in my keeper league. I won the #1 draft pick for 2008. It's a 2 year keeper, this is the third year of league, so most of the top players are back in the draft pool. Peterson and Brady will most likely be kept. Fairly standard scoring system (1 point for every 2 receptions would be the most significant difference). Can Tomlinson carry my team for 1 or 2 years? Or should I look to trade down and target Westbrook, Addai or Jackson and add extra middle round picks? Any comments would be appreciated. Cheers.
Posted by: Zane | March 13, 2008 04:42 PM
In a two year keeper, its a tougher call. Id go LT2 barely over Jackson. Id take Jackson and a pick though if you can do a trade.
Posted by: gregg | March 13, 2008 06:13 PM
In a 10-team keeper I've had LT lead me to back-to-back-to-back championships...until I got 9th place in 2007. I am looking to trade LT this year as oppose to next, since 30 year olds are harder to trade in my league.
An initial trade offer I've just made is
LT, Tatum Bell (#1 in DET?), Roddy White, 2008 Rookie pick 4.02
for
Gore, MJD, Andre Johnson, His 2009 1st round rookie pick
I don't have an issue adding players or replacing some with upgrades.
What do you think? Or should I hang on for another season?
Posted by: KN | March 13, 2008 09:24 PM
i like the concept of trading LT but the problem is no one in my league really has enough to offer for him.
Posted by: JW | March 14, 2008 02:20 PM
Gregg, thanks for your input. I am leaning towards Jackson as well, but settling for Tomlinson isn't a bad situation. The knee situation will bear watching through training camp, but Tomlinson never plays in pre-season either so it may be hard to know.
Who's in charge of St. Louis' offense? Is Saunders installing his offense or will they still be running Linehan's? If they draft Jake Long, how much of an impact will he have on their offensive line and scheme? Could he be another Joe Thomas?
A final thought about the trade and possible trades involving LT2. I think the owner in Gregg's league did an excellent job of getting young talent while maintaining immediate quality. Johnson is an elite WR with the potential to be better than he already is. Bush has a chance to be elite too. And the extra first rounder was probably a big piece of the deal.
If you own Tomlinson, just be aware that other owners may not value him as much as you do and may not be wiling to pay the price you think he's worth. You can, and should, try to win both the short term and long term sides of a trade, but don't be too surprised if you lose a little in the short term. Best of luck to anyone who finds them in this situation.
Thanks again Gregg for providing this avenue to discuss fantasy football through the off-season. I'll be a regular reader.
Posted by: Zane | March 14, 2008 08:32 PM