The Season Running Backs Collapsed
Still a RB1?
There are a lot of ways to measure how disappointing top-shelf running backs have been this season,. Here's one that sticks out to me: Ronnie Browns is still ranked in the top-ten backs of the year.
He's ninth in standard scoring and seventh in points-per-reception leagues. Since you could use his starting spot in the last five weeks, it's easy to make the case that Ronnie is still among the Fantasy MVPs this season.
Running backs who have been highly inconsistent (Jamal Lewis, Marion Barber, Clinton Portis) are ranked in the top ten at their position. Maurice Jones-Drew isn't far off despite a far-worse season season. I get more complaining emails each week about Reggie Bush than anyone, and even he's in the top-ten (and fourth in PPR leagues).
The NFL goes in cycles, and the passing game is on the upswing. That will affect fantasy leaguers next year, but I'm still not sure what wideouts will deserve to sneak into the first round other than Randy Moss if he stays with the Patriots. I do think you'll see a lot more wideouts taken in the second round, which Rotoworld already supported in 2007. They are less consistent weekly, but the top wideouts have been more predictable and healthier recently.
So will you guys start looking at wideouts and quarterbacks in the first round next year?
Comments
"First round"? I can't believe people still play in draft leagues (as opposed to auction leagues.) Are you people still on dial-up too?
Posted by: HT | November 27, 2007 12:46 PM
The majority of the pools that I know of are draft pools. This year I drafted 3rd and took Gore, Maroney, Steve Smith, then Lee Evans. I was fortunate to get Braylon Edwards and Tony Romo in later rounds.
The writing was on the wall this year IMO there were only 10 - 12 backs worth going after. Then grab WR's.
I think the trend will continue next year and Randy Moss will be picked in the top ten in many pools.
Posted by: Dave | November 27, 2007 01:10 PM
Meh.
Posted by: gth617 | November 27, 2007 01:28 PM
Obviously the first round emphasis will still be RB, with Peyton, Brady (considering Moss is still a Patriot) and Moss (assuming he's still a Patriot) sneaking into the first round.
The second round will be dominated by WR's with a RB or two thrown in and perhaps with a Romo and/or Palmer.
Round 3 will be more of the same, probably 60% WR, 20%RB, 20%QB
Honestly, I think we'll see more than half of league players not taking a RB2 until the 4th or 5th as opposed to 90% having two RB's by the end of round 3.
Posted by: royaltee | November 27, 2007 01:44 PM
Aarrgh! I love draft leagues, everyone else is STOOPID. Aarrgh! Fantasy Football, aarrgh! Why doesn't Rosenthal consult me before posting something that isn't directed toward me. Aarrgh!
Posted by: TH | November 27, 2007 01:47 PM
Why should the first round emphasis still be RB? I see ten quarterbacks who have outscored the top RB this year. And Brady is close to doubling the RB1.
When I draft with the 1.01 pick, I look for whoever is going to get me the most points over an entire season. And right now, that would be Brady.
Posted by: Sam | November 27, 2007 01:55 PM
The reason that you go after a RB instead of a QB is not how many points they score overall. Most QB's will score more points than any other position (so long as they score 6 points per TD), but it's the seperation between the top tier and the next tier that shows the importance of drafting that position.
I know they happened, so don't flame me for saying it, but if you take out Mannings record year, and Brady's record year this year, there really isn't a whole lot of drop off between the studs and the duds. Your QB10 may only be 20 - 50 points behind your QB1 at the end of the season.
But at other positions, the difference is huge. Usually (being every year but this year) you get 3-10 RB's that seriously outperform the rest of the pack. That's why unless you get lucky and pull a QB who's having a record setting carreer year, drafting a QB first will likely get you into trouble in the end.
Posted by: Lawrence | November 27, 2007 02:39 PM