Midseason Defense in Review
My look ahead to the fantasy playoff schedule this week forced me to look closer at the numbers and trends for defensive teams this week. Here are a few leftover thoughts to keep in mind when you are looking at matchups.
1. This is not the Jacksonville defense you remember. Same with Carolina
By nearly any measure, the Jaguars are an average defense at best this season. In fact, the numbers say they are below average against the pass. This is quite a surprise because they have been so consistent under Jack Del Rio, but don't look for improvement with Marcus Stroud ready to miss games. I wouldn't downgrade offenses playing them.
I think most owners know that the Panthers defense also hasn't been the same, but it's worth pointing out because they have been so consistently good over the years. They are average across the board right now.
2. The Lions and Bills have improved a great deal since the beginning of the year.
Both teams started slow, but have played with a lot of energy over the last 4-5 weeks. They were outstanding matchups early in the season, but they look relatively neutral moving forward.
3. Packers are better against the run than the pass
I've been banging the drum for Al Harris as a Pro Bowler for a few years, but Green Bay's pass defense may actually be overrated this season. They have been average. Green Bay's rush defense has been strong across the board.
4. The Giants are now a tough matchup
They have been excellent after a slow start. They are surprisingly even better against the run than the pass.
5. Raiders and Vikings have strongest splits possible
Both teams are legitimately elite in one area of defense, but miserable in another. Oakland's great secondary play is getting overlooked because their run defense is so bad. It doesn't hurt that teams don't bother throwing against them much at this point.
Other strong splits include the Saints (better vs. run), Seahawks (better vs. pass), Ravens (better vs. run), Broncos (better vs. pass), and 49ers (better vs. pass)
Comments
The Giants have been good against six putrid offenses in a row. I still don't see any reason to expect Dallas to score less than 30 this week.
Posted by: Kurt | November 8, 2007 04:17 PM
The Giants got torched by Romo and Farve and improved against Bad Donovan, Jay Cambell, Chad Pennington, Joey Harrington, Cleo Lemon and Alex Smith comming from a 4 week layoff. Can you see the common factor? Are the Giants good or have they just faced the worst Qb's in the league?
Posted by: Mad Sci | November 8, 2007 04:23 PM
I considered their opposition. But the reality is ... the bad defenses don't stomp on bad opponents like New York. They did what they had to do. The Giants looked like one of the league's worst to open the year and now that's not the case.
One reason i like using FO is they adjust for opponents. And the Giants are still above average.
Posted by: Gregg | November 8, 2007 05:02 PM
If you guys are looking for some good defensive matchups for the playoffs here are a few teams that have matchups against weaker offenses:
GB-
Week 14 vs OAK (#22 total offense)
Week 15 at STL (#29)
Week 16 at CHI (#26)
SEA-
Week 14 vs AZ (#19)
Week 15 at CAR (#25)
Week 16 vs BAL (#23)
MIN-
Week 14 at SF (#32)
Week 15 vs CHI (#26)
Week 16 vs WA (#20)
Posted by: Sean-O | November 9, 2007 10:43 AM