November 07, 2007
I've been busy today with a few things, especially working on a look ahead to the fantasy playoffs that we'll post tomorrow along with the weekly rankings. I'd love to have the posts more consistent during the season, but it's probably not going to happen unless I can create some more hours in the day. Consider that a warning. I'm going to wind up blogging quite a bit more in the offseason ... when there's less to write about it. Although that's never a problem with me.
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While I'm here, let's answer some of the comments from the blog this week.
NJ Dude asks Where would you rank Chris Henry (Cin) or DJ Hackett in your list of pickups?
I'd put Hackett first, Henry behind Holmes. I wouldn't adjust Holmes' value that much just because of the LJ news. That answers gth617's question as well. If the Chiefs pick up anyone, I doubt he'll make a big impact. I'd guess they'll bring up Marcus O'Keith, who looked good in training camp.
Barth asks the important question: Grant or Fargas?
Tough call, but my gut says Grant. He's on a better offense and has worse competition.
Continue reading "Answers, Answers" »
Wednesday is Shortcuts-watching morning at Chez Rosenthal. I took at peak at Chiefs-Packers to get a preview of Priest Holmes heading into his starting role, and wasn't overly encouraged from what I saw, albeit from a small sample.
Tony Gonzalez stole the show in this game. In a constantly changing fantasy landscape, Gonzo never disappoints. He's currently the TE3 this season and is gaining fast on Antonio Gates. If he keeps it up, it will mark the eighth time in nine years Gonzalez has finished as a top-three tight end.
Despite a terrible offense around him, Gonzo has a shot to break some personal records. He's on pace for 104 catches, 1,230 yards, and eight scores. Fantasy Nation began to give up on Gonzalez after his two-score season in 2005, but that was largely a fluke. The receptions never left.
The Chiefs may have erred rewarding Larry Johnson with a big extension, but Gonzalez is living up to his. As always.
November 06, 2007
Pat Dahl knocked out Waiver Wired, but here’s how I’d rank the popular pickups in a lot of leagues this week.
1. Justin Fargas – Who knows how long he can stay healthy, but you can’t ignore his YPC or starting status. I’d definitely take him ahead of Priest Holmes.
2. David Patten – He’s getting the numbers we expected to see from Devery Henderson. The way New Orleans’ passing game is clicking, Patten can keep it up as a legitimate WR3 option the rest of the way.
3. Priest Holmes – I still can’t get over the fact that we’re talking about Priest Holmes again. This is no longer a recommendation for cautious Larry Johnson owners to pick him up as insurance. Priest Holmes will be the first waiver pickup in many leagues this week (even if I disagree), and then he’s going to be in fantasy lineups this Sunday against the hapless Broncos.
I have no clue what’s going to happen.
How can you evaluate a ghost? Holmes wasn’t exactly on the top of his game when he disappeared two years ago and the Kansas City offense has gone downhill since. He’s going to get less carries than LJ was, and probably get fewer yards-per-carry.
Listening to Herm Edwards talk, I think that he’d like Kolby Smith get an equal-or-more share eventually.
4. Michael Robinson – Don’t assume Frank Gore will stay healthy when he returns. If knew Gore was out another week, Robinson might be ahead of LJ.
Continue reading "Waiver Ranks" »
After a blazing fast start, Denver's secondary is no longer a matchup to avoid. The Broncos have given up the second most amount of fantasy points-per-game to quarterbacks over the last five weeks. They have given up the most fantasy points to wide receivers. It's no fluke considering they are giving up touchdowns (10 of them) and 10.1 yards-per-attempt (YPA) allowed. They are actually dead last on the season in YPA allowed, meaning their overall decent numbers are mostly because teams are running at them far more.
Champ Bailey has been very good this season, but not great. Dre Bly is a little overrated, and the safeties have given up too many big plays - especially since John Lynch was hurt. The lack of a pass rush is another big reason why they are struggling.
This week, the Broncos head to Kansas City. They should be able to limit Kansas City's passing game, like most defenses, but fantasy owners should no longer fear using their quarterbacks and wideouts against Denver.
As anyone who watched Steve McNair Monday night can attest, it's not fun to watch formerly great players near the end of the line.
Fantasy owners were hopeful that a bye week would help solve Alexander's struggles, but he may have hit bottom with his 32-yard effort against the Browns. Alexander has a mild knee sprain, but it probably won't keep him out this week. His play might keep him on the sideline more than usual, though. The Seahawks are planning to go pass-wacky if possible, which means more playing time for Maurice Morris and Leonard Weaver.
Continue reading "Alexander needs to be benched" »
November 05, 2007
Courtesy of Reiss' Pieces, we learn that Laurence Maroney only played 23 snaps on Sunday - 11 snaps less than Kevin Faulk.
That ratio is almost identical to the previous week, when Faulk had 33 snaps to 24 for Maroney. That's worrisome because the whitewashing of the Redskins was such a different game than the Colts-Pats. Faulk wasn't only in the game because the Patriots were in shotgun-catchup mode.
Continue reading "Maroney still not playing much" »
LaMont Jordan may have pulled off the fastest, most drastic change in fantasy value I can remember that doesn't include a devastating injury. Let's look at the different stages of Jordan's season.
Preseason: Undervalued RB3/4
Weeks 1-4: Top five every-week starter.
Weeks 5-7: Minor back injury, then lowered production.
Week 8: Splitting carries
Week 9: Justin Fargas' backup!!
Continue reading "Jordan's devolution complete" »
So much for Joe Echemandu. Ahman Green predictably got hurt Sunday, but it was Ron Dayne who picked up the slack. I've had a soft spot for all things Dayne for a few years now, but even I had given up in a few leagues after Dayne entered Week 9 with a 2.86 yards-per-carry average.
Nothing that the Raiders couldn't solve. Dayne even ripped off a 39-yard run! If you are wondering how big a hole that must have been, well it was pretty huge.
Continue reading "Don't anger Ron Dayne" »
November 02, 2007
I've heard a lot of complaining about the hype surrounding Sunday's Colts-Patriots game, which I don't exactly understand for a few reasons.
1. As the former Pacifist Viking points out, you can ignore the hype if you want to. Stop watching ESPN; you'll be better for it. Don't read about the game if you don't want to.
2. If you love football, how can you not love this matchup? These are quite possibly the best two teams of the last 12 years. The only time the Patriots approached this level was during 2004 AFC Playoffs. I believe this is Tony Dungy's best Colts time by far, which is why the betting line in this game is ridiculous. Maybe the Pats roll, but based on evidence from this season the line should be close to even.
I love the NFL far more than college football because of the excellence of the players and coaches. They are the best of the best, and these two teams are the best we've seen in a long time. If you can't appreciate the game played at it's highest level, well, you let the hype beat you down.
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Dr. Z is still the best at breaking down games because he watches tape and doesn't parrot the usual Pro Bowl blather. Plus who else can give such details on Raheem Brock? A couple wildly positive lines in his breakdown caught my eye.
On Wes Welker: Might be the greatest hot receiver, or blitz-control guy, who ever lived. From a guy who literally wrote the books on football (The invaluable Thinking Man books), that's saying a lot.
On Logan Mankins: The NFL's best guard.
On Bob Sanders: A mini-Ray Lewis in Lewis' prime.
One of the perks of this job is that I get to change my mind. I think I ranked Willie Parker and Willis McGahee too high initially this week. It’s more important to get it right, and after watching some more game footage and looking at the numbers, I could see benching either runner depending on your roster.
I’m not that concerned about Willie’s history against Baltimore. It’s history and too many factors change every season.
I’m concerned about the 2007 Baltimore rush defense, which has been excellent. Haloti Ngata is turning into a Pro Bowler and Trevor Pryce returns this week.
This will be also be a great test for McGahee, because his excellent season has come against terrible defenses. McGahee is good, but not great, and the offense around him is less likely than Parker’s to give him touchdown opportunities. McGahee is on my bench in my office league, but I have Westbrook and Kevin Jones in the lineup. I still wouldn’t bench either of these guys for talent that I don’t believe in. In the end, I still go with talent over the matchup once you cross a certain line.
For McGahee that line is going to be Thomas Jones. I’ll move him to 17th. For Willie, who I trust more, that line is Laurence Maroney. FWP will be moved down to tenth.
So are you guys playing them?
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