I'm geniunely excited about tonight's Monday Night game for a few reasons.

1. Frank Gore vs. D.J. Hackett! The ultimate battle of vaguely disappointing Pancake Blocks favorites. Tonight, they bust out. At least I hope so.

2. Patrick Willis, Rookie of the Year candidate.

3. I need Vernon Davis to score 10 points (PPR scoring) to win in my dynasty league this week. Not that anyone cares about that except me.

4. It's the only game all week I can truly sit back and watch without working, aside from the occasional note. I'm not complaining, I love my job more than anything, but it makes Monday night games more fun.

5. The unstoppable tag team of Maurice Morris and Leonard Weaver ... in driving rain! Which leads me to my final reason.

6. If I don't get excited for the game ahead of time, I might recognize that it's the worst team in football facing off against a mediocre Seattle squad. As much as I want to root for the whole NFC West to be under .500, my prediction is ...

Seattle 24, San Francisco 10

Posted by Gregg Rosenthal at 06:42 PM | Permalink | Comments (7)

I didn't realize until today that Greg Cosell (Yes, Howard's son) was writing columns at Sportingnews.com. Cosell is the executive producer of the best football show on television, State Farm NFL Matchup, and I trust the groundwork that goes into his opinions.

This week, he tackles the strengths and weaknesses of Jeff Garcia's frenetic style inside a structured offense like Jon Gruden's Tampa scheme.

Garcia is leaving a lot of plays on the field, but that comes with his style of play. Jon Gruden will take it, and his Bucs will only have to outlast New Orleans to win a division title and save Gruden's job. I'm not sure how Garcia fits into a long-term plan, but that's something to worry about next year. And Gruden has never done much of that.

Posted by Gregg Rosenthal at 05:46 PM | Permalink | Comments (7)

Chris Henry wouldn't have received nearly the same hype if he actually played the first eight games of the season. But we are fascinated about the next big thing, and many owners were hoping he'd help them turn around their season.

So far, so good. Henry led the Bengals in receiving with 99 yards Sunday, making a 50-yard grab and a beautiful sideline catch. He had seven targets, the same as Chad Johnson, and one less than T.J. Houshmandzadeh.

I've long believed that Henry is the most talented receiver on the Bengals. I think he can be one of the ten best receivers in football, if he keeps his head on straight. So that probably won't happen.

Henry won't be one of the ten best fantasy wideouts while splitting the pot three ways, but he's going to help Carson Palmer's numbers while putting up WR3-type numbers. Housh and Ocho Cinco may see fewer targets overall moving forward, but they aren't going to fall off a cliff.

Posted by Gregg Rosenthal at 03:02 PM | Permalink | Comments (14)

1. All 265 pounds of Brandon Jacobs was vultured by 220-pound short-yardage back Reuben Droughns. Jacobs had a strong day against a stout rush defense, but couldn't catch a break. An eight-yard score was called back by an unnecessary penalty.

2. Greg Jones stole two more touchdowns from his Jaguar teammates.

3. Najeh Davenport replaced Willie Parker on the goal line, although he failed to score.

***

This is admittedly a partial list. Who else did you guys see had touchdowns stolen on Sunday?

Posted by Gregg Rosenthal at 01:10 PM | Permalink | Comments (10)

I've stubbornly kept Marc Bulger in the rankings a little higher than he deserves all season, but his last game against Cleveland provided some hope. Namely, that the Rams could go up and down the field on a terrible secondary. It's a start, and they face another bad one this week in New Orleans.

The Saints offense is playing so well that it's safe to assume Bulger and company will have to throw a lot to keep up. And he's likely to stumble into 250 yards and a score or two with 35-40 attempts even if he's not playing that well. Owners of Bulger and Torry Holt can only hope the bye week helped them heal.

I'm not that worried about Steven Jackson's "limited" amount of touches. I bet he still gets 20. Isaac Bruce is a WR3 option, but not a great one. This is also a game you have to play your Saints, including David Patten in most leagues.

Posted by Gregg Rosenthal at 04:43 PM | Permalink | Comments (7)

The PFT Podcast is up. Mike Florio and I go through all 14 games.

Tiffany and I go through the matchups, waiver pickups, and 100K picks.

One thing to keep in mind with the 100K challenge: there are only three regular season weeks left. If you are like me, you almost have too many great options left. So play them all while you can. Everything starts over in the playoffs.

Posted by Gregg Rosenthal at 01:04 PM | Permalink | Comments (4)

Some owners have written in wondering why I ranked DeShaun Foster so low this week considering his long history of success against the Falcons.

I care that Foster played his best game against Atlanta this year, but the rest of his numbers are meaningless to me. The Falcons have a different defensive coordinator than last year, and different personnel. The Panthers have different offensive personnel, a different offensive coordinator, and a new running scheme. There are too many changes every season on most NFL teams to look back and take those old numbers seriously.

Foster has gained between 43 and 64 rushing yards in the five games since Jake Delhomme was hurt, and those numbers matter more. If Foster moves up ahead of guys like Grant and Holmes on the Friday update, it will be because I trust them even less in retrospect, not because Foster ran well in 2005.

Posted by Gregg Rosenthal at 12:12 PM | Permalink | Comments (3)

I'm going to wrap up my one-day obsession of looking at defensive matchups with my five worst defenses in the league. This is from a fantasy perspective - the teams you want to see your player going against. Some teams are good at one aspect of defense, but these five struggle across the board.

5. Rams - They have played well in flashes, and have some room to improve, but losing Leonard Little hurts.
4. Jets - An indictment of Eric Mangini. Equally bad against the run and pass.
3. Browns - Their secondary is one of the biggest disappointments of the year. They give up yards on the ground, but scores through the air.
2. Bengals - Injuries and the lack of a pass rush has made their young corners look bad.
1. Dolphins - And their defensive coordinator (Dom Capers) makes more than their head coach!

Posted by Gregg Rosenthal at 05:42 PM | Permalink | Comments (3)

My look ahead to the fantasy playoff schedule this week forced me to look closer at the numbers and trends for defensive teams this week. Here are a few leftover thoughts to keep in mind when you are looking at matchups.

1. This is not the Jacksonville defense you remember. Same with Carolina

By nearly any measure, the Jaguars are an average defense at best this season. In fact, the numbers say they are below average against the pass. This is quite a surprise because they have been so consistent under Jack Del Rio, but don't look for improvement with Marcus Stroud ready to miss games. I wouldn't downgrade offenses playing them.

I think most owners know that the Panthers defense also hasn't been the same, but it's worth pointing out because they have been so consistently good over the years. They are average across the board right now.

Continue reading "Midseason Defense in Review" »

Posted by Gregg Rosenthal at 03:04 PM | Permalink | Comments (6)

Here are some factors to keep in mind when looking at my playoff upgrades and downgrades.

1. I’m defining the playoffs from Weeks 14-16. Yes, plenty of leagues use Week 13 or Week 17, but I have to go with the most popular format.

2. Most schedules even out; they don’t make that huge a difference. You usually have one good matchup, one average one, and one poor one or some variation of that. What I looked for is consistency in the schedule, or a pair of particularly easy or difficult matchups.

3. Make sure to differentiate between run defense and pass defense. The Saints are a fabulous matchup for quarterbacks, but play the run fairly well. The Colts are one of the toughest teams to pass on, but are an average run defense. The Vikings are the best at stopping the run, but can’t stop the pass. The Raiders are the opposite … and so forth.

Continue reading "Explaining the Playoff Ranks" »

Posted by Gregg Rosenthal at 01:04 PM | Permalink | Comments (9)