Is LJ a shaky play this week?
Kansas City heads to Houston in Week 1, which would normally be a cause of celebration for all Larry Johnson owners. But Herm Edwards made some telling comments Tuesday about limiting LJ's workload early in the year. And then continuing to limit it throughout the year. Here's Herm:
He’s going to be on a little bit of a leash early ... He’ll be fine the first two weeks because he knows he can’t do (too much). We’re protecting Larry. That’s important. But the kind of guy he is, after week four I know he’s going to come up to me and say, ‘I can carry it a few more times if you need me to.'
For now, the key part of this equation is how to evaluate Johnson this week. I still have a hard time believing Johnson won't be on the field in the second half during a close game, but the Chiefs could consider giving Bennett every other series in the first half.
Edwards' quotes, though, indicated something I've written about all offseason. Even if LJ beats the odds and stays healthy, his carries are likely to decrease by at least 50-75 touches. That would still leave him among the league leaders. Herm once again:
It’s kind of ironic. He’s back, signed a big contract, now he’s not going to get the ball as much. The first thing he’s going to do is come to my office after the third game and ask, ‘why am I not getting the ball?’ That’s the question you [media] will be asking after week four: ‘why won’t you give Larry the ball more?’ Oh really, last year you said we gave him the ball too much last year. He’ll get the ball.
I don't trust Edwards to truly have LJ on a pitch count late in the year, but they are going to be cautious with him early. My initial Season Pass rankings that went live Tuesday had Johnson ninth. After this news, I'm going to knock him 5-6 spots down to RB2 status. Johnson is still a talented runner and he's still facing the Texans. He's a decent bet to score a touchdown. I wouldn't expect a big game from him, but your team would have to be loaded to bench him.
Comments
Gregg, I think you are way off-base. Edwards rode curtis martin hard when he was with the jets, and he did the same thing last year with lj. So LJ will get his carries and with his track record carries = tds. You cant say the same for addai or gore. I predict lj will run for 100 yards and 2 scores this weekend.
Posted by: Matthew Rosenthal | September 5, 2007 05:16 PM
Getting a little concerned with all the news on limiting LJ. I can't believe I am even asking this but should I start Ahman Green instead of LJ with Edge as my RB2?
Do you think I should trade LJ? If so who should I expect in a trade? My other RB's are Edge, Green and D.Williams.
Thanks,
AD
Posted by: AD | September 6, 2007 12:23 AM
Wow. Drops to 9th? Really? A 2RB option? This is ridiculous. People must think he spent his time off relaxing at home, drinking beer, and laughing at his teamates on "Hard Knocks". (he trained relentlessly)
Lets think about this. LJ was ranked 2nd overall last preseason by most experts. Why knock him so far down this year?
KC's offense not scary enough? Defenses gonna crowd the box? Who was scared of them last year? Eddie Kennison and Sammy Parker were still their recievers. LJ was still facing 8 man boxes. Nothing new here.
Nothing new with the AFC West loaded with the same ol' good run stopping defenses. Been there, ran all over that.
So I guess it comes down to carries and Roaf. From what I hear, Johnson's gonna explode after taking a shoulder from Merriman or Harris. I feel like everybody is turning into his concerned mother. He's not an old man. He's 27, and a big boy, he'll be okay.
Roaf, if anything is the only legit reason I see knocking LJ down any. Yes, losing an all-world blocker is unhelpful, but not 7 spots worth.
And for this weekend. If it's close, Bennett's not gonna sniff the field. LJ will demand the ball. Once he gets out there in front of that crowd, his legs will come to him.
Sorry Gregg, but I still believe Johnson is a tier 1, sub-LT running back. Havn't seen enough evidence to make me think otherwise.
Posted by: Shaun | September 6, 2007 02:00 AM
finally a voice of reason.
thank you shaun.
Posted by: matt | September 6, 2007 12:51 PM