Is LJ a shaky play this week?
Kansas City heads to Houston in Week 1, which would normally be a cause of celebration for all Larry Johnson owners. But Herm Edwards made some telling comments Tuesday about limiting LJ's workload early in the year. And then continuing to limit it throughout the year. Here's Herm:
He’s going to be on a little bit of a leash early ... He’ll be fine the first two weeks because he knows he can’t do (too much). We’re protecting Larry. That’s important. But the kind of guy he is, after week four I know he’s going to come up to me and say, ‘I can carry it a few more times if you need me to.'
For now, the key part of this equation is how to evaluate Johnson this week. I still have a hard time believing Johnson won't be on the field in the second half during a close game, but the Chiefs could consider giving Bennett every other series in the first half.
Edwards' quotes, though, indicated something I've written about all offseason. Even if LJ beats the odds and stays healthy, his carries are likely to decrease by at least 50-75 touches. That would still leave him among the league leaders. Herm once again:
It’s kind of ironic. He’s back, signed a big contract, now he’s not going to get the ball as much. The first thing he’s going to do is come to my office after the third game and ask, ‘why am I not getting the ball?’ That’s the question you [media] will be asking after week four: ‘why won’t you give Larry the ball more?’ Oh really, last year you said we gave him the ball too much last year. He’ll get the ball.
I don't trust Edwards to truly have LJ on a pitch count late in the year, but they are going to be cautious with him early. My initial Season Pass rankings that went live Tuesday had Johnson ninth. After this news, I'm going to knock him 5-6 spots down to RB2 status. Johnson is still a talented runner and he's still facing the Texans. He's a decent bet to score a touchdown. I wouldn't expect a big game from him, but your team would have to be loaded to bench him.





Comments
Going to keep him on a leash....Does that mean he is only going to get 25 carries instead of 35? LJ is all they have got. If they are going to try and win games this year they are going to get him the ball early an often.
Posted by: Matt | September 5, 2007 11:22 AM
My guess is LJ for 2 series - Bennett for 1 to start the season. That makes alot of sense- but keep in mind LJ clearly with all goal line carries - and Hern had said in training camp he wants LJ catching the ball more this year, which could help him in PPR leagues nicely.
Posted by: Scott | September 5, 2007 11:30 AM
With the recent updates, should I trade LJ for Gore or Addai straight up?
Posted by: Mike | September 5, 2007 11:52 AM
If you can find someone willing to give you Gore or Addai for LJ? In a heartbeat. They both play for better offenses with easier schedules. Even without this news, LJ has the likelihood of breaking down after last season, a vanishing offensive line, and a division full of relatively good defenses.
Guy dropped to 11th in a fantasy draft I did recently.
Posted by: smeghead | September 5, 2007 12:51 PM
Mike in a word - Umm YEAH!
Posted by: Scott | September 5, 2007 03:22 PM
Yeah Mike - I agree with Scott. Go for it.
Posted by: Gregg | September 5, 2007 04:22 PM
Larry as a #2 fantasy back? I guess from afar it looks right, but i'm not convinced. The last time this guy had another runner he had 1700 yards and 20 tds in what? 7 games? This guy against a tired defense is a hammer. 20 carries equals 100 yards and at least a td. The young texans may be talented but their D-line is more suited for pass rush then run stop. I predict he's going to run over the opposition this first week out.
Posted by: Ryan Griffin | September 5, 2007 04:30 PM