September 26, 2007
If you had a league starting this week, how would you rank your top ten running backs and receivers? I'm not asking what you would have done three weeks ago. You don't get LaMont Jordan's fast start, only his next 13 games. Here's how I'd go.
1. LaDainian Tomlinson - Hard part of schedule is mostly over.
2. Joseph Addai - Safer than safe.
3. Frank Gore - I still believe.
4. Brian Westbrook - Minor injuries a minor concern.
5. Willie Parker - Improvements haven't totally shown up in box scores, but they will.
6. Clinton Portis - Injury/Betts concerns were overblown.
7. Larry Johnson - Tough part of schedule is mostly over, but injury risk remains.
8. Travis Henry - Everything has gone as expected thus far.
9. Shaun Alexander - About what we expected.
10 (tie). Willis McGahee - Unremarkably consistent.
10. LaMont Jordan - Dominic Rhodes will be less of a threat than people think.
Continue reading "Who's your top running back now?" »
Anyone who dropped James Jones because Greg Jennings is back in the starting lineup made a mistake. Jones managed to lead the Packers in targets against San Diego and was about six inches away from scoring a touchdown. Brett Favre's attention was nicely split between his top three options, with Jennings, Jones, and Donald Driver getting 7-to-9 targets.
With a matchup this week against the stout Minnesota rushing attack, look for the Packers to spread the Vikings out (like every other team) and throw at them. That makes Jennings and Jones reasonable WR3 plays.
Did anyone notice that Ryan Grant got the first three Packers carries of Sunday's game against San Diego?
Brandon Jackson started both halves and was used in the passing game more (playing well), but the use of Grant so early was surprising. It was even more surprising because he saw a second quarter target, then wasn't on the field again.
DeShawn Wynn, meanwhile, had the same third-down role that he performed in the second game. Jackson got the call on the goal-line late in the game. This is becoming a true committee and none of the above are options if the Packers are only going to call 11 running plays. We probably won't learn much more this week when Green Bay faces the stout Minnesota run defense.
Well, it looks like Lovie Smith will finally put Rex Grossman, his fantasy owners, and Bears fans out of their collective misery. It was only twelve months ago when Rex was being mentioned as a possible MVP candidate. Now Kyle Orton looks like a better option.
It all started going wrong on that Monday night game against Arizona, starting a 17-game stretch where Rexy threw 18 touchdowns, 27 interceptions, and six lost fumbles.
I don't expect Brian Griese to be a fantasy savior in Chicago, although he will post good stats this week against the Lions. Griese's upside is somewhere around Chad Pennington.
The only player truly hurt by the change is Bernard Berrian. Rex could throw the deep ball well and Berrian knows how to catch up with any pass. Griese is a dink-and-dunker, which means less vertical throws and more safe passes to Muhsin Muhammad and the tight ends.
September 25, 2007
Tuesday's Fix and the 100K Week 4 preview are up. The show was taped before the news about Hines Ward and Nate Washington.
One thing I didn't mention in the 100K preview (we only have one minute) concerns LaMont Jordan. If you haven't used him yet, it's time to do so before Dominic Rhodes returns. The matchup (Miami) is right.
I'm heading back home - thanks for stopping by.
In Waiver Wired, I ranked Kenny Watson fourth among possible running back pickups this week behind Aaron Stecker. Following the news that Rudi Johnson could miss Monday night's game, Watson looks looks like an even better choice.
Rudi Johnson sounded confident he'd play after the game, but actions speak louder than words. The Bengals signed Pancake Block fascination DeDe Dorsey Tuesday, a clear sign they are worried about Rudi's health.
Johnson owners need to pick up Watson as a handcuff, and the Bengals reserve has plenty of value as fantasy depth for all owners. Any Bengals starting running back, temporary or otherwise, is at least a decent flex option. Dorsey knows Cincy's system (he spent last offseason with them), and could receive carries sooner than later if Johnson's injury lingers. He's worth a look in deep dynasty leagues.
Hines Ward is being called "doubtful" for Sunday's Tomlin-Whisenhunt battle royale in the desert.
I was targeting this week for Santonio Holmes' breakout game, and Ward's injury should ultimately help him. The Cardinals will be focused on stopping the run and Holmes should dominate Ben Roethlisberger's attention now. Look for Nate Washington to get the start. If you needed a spot starter for one week, you could do a lot worse than Washington. He's a physical deep threat who made a ton of big plays last season.
Ward has only missed three career games, but they have all come in the last two years. Hamstring issues and a minor knee surgery late last season suggest that Ward's physical style may be affecting his play. Ward had 108 yards and a score through three weeks.
I am getting a lot of "Stecker or Leonard?" emails today. The decision isn't close, and I'd take Ron Dayne far before Stecker if he's available. For my thoughts on Leonard, head over to Waiver Wired.
Stecker is a terrific role player, and he's survived countless challenges over the last few years just to keep his roster spot. But he's ultimately a third-down back, and the Saints already have one that makes a few more dollars. Stecker will have a role, but it's not going to be bigger than it was in 2005, when he split the workload with Antowain Smith. Stecker averaged 58 total yards-per-game after Deuce was hurt in '05, and that number should decline.
Continue reading "The Greatest Pierre in the NFL" »
September 24, 2007
The Saints have problems up and down their roster right now. The pass defense is among the league's worst. The running game is inert and Deuce McAllister is hurt.
On offense, I'd argue that the offensive line is the biggest issue. Drew Brees hasn't been able to set his feet and step into a throw throughout the second half. Teams are getting pressure on New Orleans without sending extra blitzers. If that doesn't change, Brees' struggles will continue.
Vernon Davis is expected to miss two weeks with a partically torn MCL. Brian asks:
Given his slow start and the severity of his injury, would you just cut bait on Vernon Davis? I've got O.Daniels in reserve, and as I've lost A.Johnson and SJax today, I could probably use the depth elsewhere.
I'd hold on to Davis in almost all formats. He should be back after the San Francisco Week 6 bye, and he can be a TE1 despite San Francisco's early struggles. In Brian's rare case, I could see releasing Davis because of all the injuries and the presence of a comparable tight end. I would see if anyone would give up something in a trade first.
Davis' injury isn't great news for Frank Gore. Opposing defenses are already focusing on the Inconvenient Truth, and now they have one less weapon to cover.
|
