Visit NBCSports.com      
Videos | NFL | CFB | GOLF | UFC | Poker | Olympics | Mobile Visit MSN.com
Rotoworld Home Page
 
 


Why I'm not taking defense early

Here are the top five team defenses according to average draft position, and the rounds they are being taken.

Bears - Round six
Ravens - Early round seven
Chargers - Late round eight
Patriots - Early round nine
Steelers - Round eleven

I'm not taking my defense until the second-to-last round. Were the Bears and Ravens worth those draft slots last year? Maybe. Are they especially likely to come close to lapping the field again? No.

Team defense, in real life and fantasy football, fluctuates a lot more than offense. Devin Hester will be lucky to score twice on returns this year. The Ravens are more consistent on an annual basis, but I'm not taking them ahead of players like Vince Young, Kellen Winslow, and Fred Taylor, all of whom are going after the Ravens.

I hear a lot of owners talk about the amount of fantasy points their team defense can score, but that's missing the point. They all score a lot. In the scoring system my NFL.com league uses, the 31st-best defense scored more fantasy points than the best tight end. You are going to get a high-scoring defense in the last few rounds. If you don't burn an early pick on a defense, you are more likely to take advantage of matchups by using the waiver wire. Team defense is more matchup driven than any position.

It is very difficult to project what fantasy defenses will do well because turnovers are based so much on luck. That's partly why defenses fluctuate. Even if you guess wrong with your last pick, there will be plenty of good options on the waiver wire each week. Same as the kicker position. And that's why I'm hoping to get the Packers or Jaguars, but only after round 14 starts.

Comments

Pages:   1 |  2  |  3  |  4  |  5 
 

I was the same way for a few seasons gregg! I just do think if you do have a defense like the bears. It is like having antonio gates instead of heath miller. Or having owens instead of plexxico.

I do not think the ravens have as much success as last season they lost adalias. That is huge with in it self. He was there sack leader. I bet they got alot of turnovers on those sacks. Then ed reed and mcalister are old. Owners were lucky they stayed on the field that long last year! Because if you look at 2005 the defense was not so hot! They play in afc also.

Bears are a different story there division stinks. Also they have so many defensive weapons it is not even funny. They are in nfc! Alot of bad teams in nfc.

You may be right on draft position. But if you know how to draft and hit the waiver wire that position is not an issue.

I do not agree with waiting for defense at all. It is very important if you can land bears or chargers. If they are gone I would say wait. But do yourself a favor and try and get 1 if you can. When you are playing someone and there defense gets like 2,5, 7, 10 points and yours gets like 15+. That is huge.

That is like an an upgraded reciever and you do not have to worry about your defense matchups. It will be a set position and 1 less thing you have to keep your eyes on.

I have to say reciever is the things you can wait for a little bit. Do not get wrapped up in reciever. They are the most inconsistent. You can land all kinds of guys. Also there are alot of injuries to recievers. There are also alot more of them than QB, RB, and top notch defenses. The 4 most important positions in my mind are RB, RB, QB, Defense. you need top guys in these positions. This is your core and the top guys in these position score more points than everyone else.

After the top wide recievers are gone. The rest are all the same. They could go up or they could go down. It is a very inconsistent position. Also look last season at ocho cinco he had a bad first half. That is to his standards of course. Half way threw the season you were scratching your head. To is a risk hammy he is old or could blow up at some point, then holt bad knee, Wayne and Harrison best most consistent players and they will be passing like crazy with there defense. But all the srest are question marks. Reggie brown becoming number 1 versus number 1 corners. Will he do good versus the best guys? Driver foot and shoulder issues. Will he get hurt again? They do tackle at ankles alot! TJ housh they only have to worry about chad and him now will they have tighter coverage until henry is ready in week 10? Mark clayton ravens? Steve smith hammy? roy williams lock! fitzy lock, boldin lock, javon walker always injured, Andre johnson on houston but will they throw to him every down like last season? Colston moss, evans, hines, glenn all injured already.

Bottom line there are countless recievers and it is a position that you can get steals later on. It is a position with alot of injuries to say the least! A hammy goes bad you are in trouble with all of them!

Amen brother.

not chargers second line ravens bers ravens!

League rules on defensive scoring fluctuates more than any other position.

In my league, the Ravens and Bears were within a half point of each other. However, the difference between them and the #3 defense (Minnnesota in our system) was the exact same 90 points as the difference between Antonio Gates and Ben Watson, the #12 TE. In that format, you take your defense early and don't worry much about TE.

Last year I had the Chicago Bear defense...they single handedly saved my butt in 3 games on the way to a Championship. This year, I won't lie I took the B-More defemse in the 6th. But this is the reason why...week in and week out my defense will score more points than my opponents. My league also has big bonuses on shutouts. So before breaking down the other positions I already have a lead every game.

The value of a team defense fluctuates widely between different leagues' scoring rules, but I believe the Ravens are worth a high draft pick:

1) In 2005, both Ray Lewis and Ed Reed were injured for nearly half the season. Every other year, the Ravens have been dominant while the fantasy scoring of other team defenses have fluctuated.

2) All players fluctuate in stats year to year, but since defense is the combined fluctuations of 11 players, they should average out and fluctuate less and be easier to predict (that's a proven mathematical concept).

3) An injury can knock any player right to a zero. An ironic point since you listed Fred Taylor, Kellen Winslow, and Vince Young in your argument. An injury cannot damage a defense to the same degree, thus they are a safer pick.

4) There is a much larger dropoff in points from the Ravens to a defense outside of the top 4 defenses, than there is from Kellen Winslow to a TE a couple rounds later, or from Fred Taylor to a RB a couple rounds later.

5) In head-to-head leagues, big weeks by your defense will far outweigh anything Fred Taylor or Kellen Winslow puts up against your opponent's RB2 or TE. When the Ravens get their shutout with 2 TDs, 3 INTs, 4 sacks and fumble, you will win. Taylor and Winslow will never win you a week singlehandedly.

I think the major problem is thinking Ravens and Bears will be as good as last year. If they were, theyd be worth it. I just doubt they will. I think there's a good chance Green Bay will be better than one or both, so why not wait.

   Pages:   1 |  2  |  3  |  4  |  5 
 

Post a comment

Syndication

Rotoworld News


Powered by
Movable Type 3.2
Advertisement

Favorite Links

MLB Home Player News Headlines Features Injuries Transactions Contracts Depth Charts Local Papers Draft Guide Season Pass
NFL Home Player News Headlines Features Injuries Transactions Depth Charts Local Papers Draft Guide Season Pass
NBA Home Player News Headlines Features Injuries Transaction Depth Charts Local Papers Draft Guide
NHL Home Player News Headlines Features Injuries Probables Transaction Depth Charts Local Papers Draft Guide
NAS Home Player News Headlines Features
Golf Home Player News Headlines Features
CFB Home Player News Headlines Features
CBB Home Player News Headlines Features
Sandbox Fantasy Games Full Count Fantasy Baseball SBX Baseball League Manager
Pancake Blocks - Football Strike Zone - Baseball Winning Your Fantasy Championship In the Sin Bin - Hockey Driftwood - Basketball