Where to draft Kevin Jones and Tatum Bell
So we tackled Clinton Portis' declining stock yesterday. Now it's time for Kevin Jones. No one really knows when Kevin Jones will return to action, but here's what we think.
1. Jones should get the primary job back from Tatum Bell when he's fully healthy.
2. Jones looks likely to start the year on the PUP list, making him ineligible for the first five games of the season. Detroit has a bye in Week 6.
3. The Lions' running backs ran a league low 264 times last season. There just won't be that much work to spread around. They will have to get their value from catching the ball.
4. T.J. Duckett will probably vulture touchdowns from both Bell and Jones.
Readers have told me that they think dropping Jones nearly off the draft board is an easy decision, but I don't agree. He was fantastic under Mike Martz last year and is worth stashing for the right price. His injury is a mystery, but let's try to work on a realistic scenario for thie season when making projections.
Let's put the over/under on missed games from Jones at six. Right now, it could be more or less, but that seems like the median.
That gives Tatum Bell six starts. I then would project Jones and Bell to split work evenly as Jones gets 100%, let's say for three games. That leaves seven games on the season, where Jones would be projected as the lead back.
Now we are projecting a lot of scenarios, but this looks like a reasonable forecast. And it would make the two players have similar value over the course of the season. I'd take Jones.
Keep in mind that Tatum Bell was an underwhelming player in Denver who struggled in the passing game. The great system did not help him play consistently. His talent, which I don't have faith in, is the x-factor. The opportunity is great, but what if Bell isn't any good? The Lions will pass more than ever.
Add up all the things we know, the things we think we know, and the things we can guess, and I come to one conclusion: I don't want any Lions running back unless Jones slips to me after the top 100 picks.
Comments
Why is Kevin Jones considered a more talented runner than Tatum Bell? Bell has been the better runner over the course of their careers. Jones has been one of the least effective starting rushers in the NFL since he came in. Doubtlessly his receiving skills are better than Bell's, but as a runner? I don't think Jones is coming back to take this job in 2007.
Posted by: Chris Wesseling | August 17, 2007 04:36 PM
Jones only gets the job back quickly if Bell doesn't produce.
If Bell produces, Jones will have to win the job back or wait for Bell to get hurt.
So whatever happens to Jones depends in large part on Bell. Bell has better speed than Jones but might not be as quick. Jones seems stronger but with a damaged ped he may be hesitant to power for awhile.
Also, a little known tidbit about Jones is that he doesn't love football. It's what he's best at so he does it as his employment. That lack of heart could impair him in a comeback, as well.
Until we see how Bell performs in a real game in the Lions offense we just won't know what's going to happen at their RB position.
Big ?????
Posted by: James Bell | August 20, 2007 09:36 AM
There is a huge misconception going on with the KJ/Tatum Bell debate, and the writer of this article is caught up in that misconception. The thought is that for sure KJ is a better receiver so he fits better into the Martz system. This is not 100% accurate. Before Martz arrived in Detroit, KJ averaged 24 receptions per year. Those are Jamal Lewis type receiving numbers. KJ has been a horrid runner his first 3 years in the league, but because of the Martz system he blew up for 61 receptions in only 12 games last year and was extremely valuable in fantasy leagues. First glance logic tells you KJ's 61 receptions compared to Bells 24 in his first season as a starter means KJ is the superior receiver. That argument can only be used if Tatum Bell gets a year under the Martz system. Martz likes Bells receiving ability, and as a runner, Bell has much better home-run ability than KJ ever did. I think Bell is being extremely undervalued and in the Martz system could easily be a top 4 receiving RB this season. The only negative about Bell is the Lions have a pretty rough schedule those first 6 weeks when he gets to showcase his ability. He will be the best RB you can get after the 3rd round, and in point per reception leagues, he could be a top 10 RB overall. You read it here first.
Posted by: John Eichler | August 22, 2007 02:20 PM
w_0 w_0,
Posted by: w_0 | October 11, 2007 05:42 PM
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Posted by: Gxouzkxl | July 14, 2009 08:35 PM
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Posted by: Gxouzkxl | July 14, 2009 08:35 PM