Where to draft Kevin Jones and Tatum Bell
So we tackled Clinton Portis' declining stock yesterday. Now it's time for Kevin Jones. No one really knows when Kevin Jones will return to action, but here's what we think.
1. Jones should get the primary job back from Tatum Bell when he's fully healthy.
2. Jones looks likely to start the year on the PUP list, making him ineligible for the first five games of the season. Detroit has a bye in Week 6.
3. The Lions' running backs ran a league low 264 times last season. There just won't be that much work to spread around. They will have to get their value from catching the ball.
4. T.J. Duckett will probably vulture touchdowns from both Bell and Jones.
Readers have told me that they think dropping Jones nearly off the draft board is an easy decision, but I don't agree. He was fantastic under Mike Martz last year and is worth stashing for the right price. His injury is a mystery, but let's try to work on a realistic scenario for thie season when making projections.
Let's put the over/under on missed games from Jones at six. Right now, it could be more or less, but that seems like the median.
That gives Tatum Bell six starts. I then would project Jones and Bell to split work evenly as Jones gets 100%, let's say for three games. That leaves seven games on the season, where Jones would be projected as the lead back.
Now we are projecting a lot of scenarios, but this looks like a reasonable forecast. And it would make the two players have similar value over the course of the season. I'd take Jones.
Keep in mind that Tatum Bell was an underwhelming player in Denver who struggled in the passing game. The great system did not help him play consistently. His talent, which I don't have faith in, is the x-factor. The opportunity is great, but what if Bell isn't any good? The Lions will pass more than ever.
Add up all the things we know, the things we think we know, and the things we can guess, and I come to one conclusion: I don't want any Lions running back unless Jones slips to me after the top 100 picks.
Comments
eloquently told. im in agreement.
Posted by: Zachary | August 17, 2007 12:54 PM
If Duckett is still a viable vulture - why did the Redskins trade for him and then not use him? Why did they release him in the offseason whne Portis still has health concerns?
Posted by: Bill | August 17, 2007 01:01 PM
The Skins didn't know how effective Ladell Betts was when they traded for Duckett. After giving Betts a lucrative contract, Duckett was expendable. Also, Al Saunders is more comfortable with Derrick Blaylock from his days in Kansas City.
Not to say that Duckett is any good. But, whether he is any good or not may not have anything to do with the Skins cutting him.
Posted by: BC | August 17, 2007 01:12 PM
Bill I agree Duckett is lame and the fact he didnt play in Washington is a sign of it. But at this point he's getting goal-line carries according to articles, so it's a factor.
Posted by: gregg | August 17, 2007 01:31 PM
But what about the odds that Jones reinjures himself? He gets hurt EVERY year, often right at the beginning of games, which means you get like one whole point.
Posted by: John | August 17, 2007 03:08 PM
Got Tatum on my Fantasy team and think he's a steal. Had Jones the last two years and consistently disappointed. Fool me once etc.
Can we get back to what a babe Kellie Croyle is please? Why doesn't "60% G" write more about her and her impact on the fantasy season?
Nuff said boys...
Posted by: AlliG | August 17, 2007 04:16 PM
i'm thinkin' that kj can only:
(a). play through pain - & i don't know what he's made of...
(b). is done...
i work in orthopaedics and there are alot of variables to be considered in a return from that injury...
personally, i'm betting that tb gets and keeps the job because dr. frankenstein (mm) likes him...for what it's worth,
prm...
Posted by: prm | August 17, 2007 04:25 PM