The Hester Insanity
I was getting ready to leave the office, and realized I haven't written anything to antogonize Bears fans yet today. So here goes.
The fantasy owners drafting Devin Hester are out of their gourd. I saw Hester taken with a few rounds remaining in one of my industry drafts over the summer and thought the owner was acting alone. But it just happened again, by an industry titan who I greatly respect, so clearly some intelligent football people disagree with me.
Hester is now getting drafted as a flier in 12-team leagues on average, according to MockDraftCentral.com. I don't get it. It's hard enough to make a fantasy impact if you are any second-year receiver. Consider the factors working against Hester.
1) He'll get 1/3 of the snaps of a normal starter, if not less, coming off the bench for an average passing offense.
2) He hasn't played wideout as a pro and struggled at it in college.
3) He's teammates with Rex Grossman.
4) Bernard Berrian, Mushin Muhammad, Mark Bradley, Adrian Peterson, and Garrett Wolfe are all almost certainly more natural receivers.
When I projected Hester as a receiver, I thought he'd be a poor man's Antwan Randle El. If he's lucky. Am I crazy here?
Comments
here's my thinking in taking him with a flier -
(my league rewards 1 pt per 40 return yards)
he scored 6 times solely as a returner last year.
he will likely not replicate that, but i expect he'll take 3-4 to the house.
i expect his role on offense to be a big play threat, and as you said, see limited snaps. but when he's on the field, he's likely going to get the ball. he may only have 30 catches on the year, but i bet he scores at least 3 TDs.
so that gives him by my reasoning a floor of 6-7 total TDs.
isn't that good for a flier pick??
Posted by: The Dox | August 9, 2007 08:21 PM
No, that isn't good for a flier pick, because you never know when those TDs will come. Even if he scores 6 total TDs this season, you have less than a 50% chance of starting him on the right week. And if you pick the wrong week, his yardage numbers sure aren't going to help. If you ever start him at flex or at WR3, odds are that you're taking 2 points or less for that week at that position. Take a flier on Troy Williamson, Ronald Curry or Maurice Stovall instead.
Posted by: CJM | August 9, 2007 10:31 PM
If you get return yards, maybe. But I've never played in a league that has that.
Posted by: Gregg | August 9, 2007 11:45 PM
i play in a savvy 14 team league. curry, williamson, and stovall will be gone by the 12th round at the latest.
the people available for with flier picks will be exceedingly crappy, as it is a 23 round draft.
i don't take fliers with the intention of ever having to start them. but in the event that one of my other WRs goes down, i would have no problem plugging hester in for a week or two and hoping for a homerun.
that said, he would still be a WR6-7 on my team, in a league that starts 3.
Posted by: The Dox | August 10, 2007 02:24 AM
I agree 100% with Gregg on this one. There are a lot of players who could step it up depending on the match-up week in week out. I think this guy is too much of a stretch.
Posted by: Dave | August 10, 2007 05:44 AM
He will likely go in the first round of my TD-based-scoring, 12-team, Bears-only league.
Posted by: HT | August 10, 2007 10:40 AM
people love athletes.
it's the same reason matt jones is owned in every league i'm in and randle el has been owned in all of them... regardless of the fact that neither of them have done a thing, fantasy-wise.
hester is just a great athlete who happens to play football, and he can turn that into success returning kicks.
it'll never translate into a position that takes incredible precision, control, timing and focus.
Posted by: dibble | August 10, 2007 10:48 AM