Preseason Notebook, vol. 2
Does Lemon have a chance?
I broke out the preseason notebook Tuesday with the Falcons/Jets. Let me know if this is the type of thing you guys like in the future. Here goes a few notes from the Lions-Bengals and Jaguars-Dolphins.
Jaguars-Dolphins
* Miami's young offensive line was manhandled by Jacksonville. It was like they weren't there. Trent Green had some ugly throws, but no one would have played well. This could be a rare case of the preseason showing something if the trend continues. If Miami's line gets pushed around like this all August, I'd consider downgrading Ronnie Brown.
* Cleo Lemon threw a few beautiful passes, but they were against third-teamers. He needs a monster game this week for a chance to start, but he's still a big long shot.
* Byron Leftwich has lost weight, which is great, but it doesn't change our projection. People want to talk about mobility, but his adjusted sack rate according to FootballOutsiders was the same as David Garrard. Sacks are often about decision making, not always offensive line and mobility. Both Leftwich and Garrard looked great, for what it's worth.
* Jack Del Rio called rookie Mike Walker his best overall receiver in an interview. Walker isn't 100%, but he looked smooth making three catches despite some knee pain and a dislocated finger.
Lions/Bengals
* T.J. Duckett fumbled on the goal line for the Lions. Can't afford many of those.
* Rudi Johnson dropped a wide open swing pass. There's a reason they don't play him much on passing downs.
* J.T. O'Sullivan may not be the next Kurt Warner, but he fits the profile. He has great touch on his passes and can throw Mike Martz's patented 20-yard throws well. His arm was surprisingly good. His decision-making was all over the place, not unlike Jon Kitna. With the Detroit O-line looking shaky, I wouldn't be surprised if O'Sullivan winds up in some fantasy lineups this year when Kitna gets beaten to a pulp.
* Kitna got hammered when G Edwin Mulitalo whiffed on a block. Picking up old Ravens castoffs isn't the way to solve your line problems.
Comments
Great stuff, Gregg. Definitely keep it coming...
Posted by: Chris Wesseling | August 15, 2007 03:06 PM
Absolutely love this stuff.
Posted by: Ron | August 15, 2007 03:29 PM
These snapshots are very valuable to me since I don't have time to catch all the pre-season games or read the full recaps! Please make it a regular thing!
Posted by: Brandon | August 15, 2007 03:32 PM
gregg-
i definitely dig the breakdowns - great work.
question - i've been considering mike walker as a possible flier pick (my drafts all fall between the 26th and the 4th, so hopefully i'll know more then). do you think he'll put up any numbers in jacksonville, or possibly start, at any point this season?
Posted by: The Dox | August 15, 2007 03:45 PM
Yeah ... I would hope more then. if you are a 15 by 12 league, i wouldn't draft walker just yet. I need to know/see a little more, but he could be a good pickup.
If you are in a keeper league, then hes a much better pick.
Posted by: Gregg | August 15, 2007 03:48 PM
I do like it. These nuances are important.
Posted by: Zachary | August 15, 2007 04:57 PM
>> "Byron Leftwich has lost weight, which is great, but it doesn't change our projection. People want to talk about mobility, but his adjusted sack rate according to FootballOutsiders was the same as David Garrard."
Not the same, but better. In Pro Football Prospectus 2007, Garrard's 2006 ASR is listed as 8.2%. Leftwich's is listed as 5.5%. That's not close to the same.
They also have a snippet in the Jaguars section where they compare the two's ASR over the past 3 seasons. Garrard comes in at 6.5% and Leftwich at 5.3%. That's closer but still hardly the same.
>> Sacks are often about decision making, not always offensive line and mobility.
Without a doubt. But that doesn't mean some increased mobility (or, more pertinently, agility) won't help tick that number down a tad more. Or, at the very least, help him avoid taking the full brunt of all of those hits. :)
Posted by: *Legion* | August 16, 2007 03:24 AM