Norwood, Dunn ADP tightening
I am tackling some Average Draft Position (ADP) information in my column today, but I thought it was worth re-visiting some other trends on the blog for a final time before we truly get ready for Week 1. All the ADP information was created by averaging the publicly available ADP feeds at MockDraftCentral.com, AntSports.com, and MyFantasyleague.com.
Let's start with a final look at the Atlanta running backs.
Jerious Norwood (RB29, 66 overall)
Warrick Dunn (RB39, 99 overall)
These numbers are tightening in recent days, and may be even closer by the end of draft season. Norwood was at risk of getting overhyped, but the latest news may help him become a better value. Sometimes you have to make judgement calls on a player's ability. Norwood is very talented young player and is going to hit enough big plays. I don't expect Warrick Dunn to play well enough to help fantasy teams this season, whether he starts Week 1 or not.
At this price, Norwood is a decent RB3 option. There are some safer picks being drafted behind him (Julius Jones, LaMont Jordan, LenDale White), but there are also some uninspiring selections being taken in front (Jamal Lewis). The Atlanta offense is my biggest concern. Norwood looks like a good, not great, third back and that's how he's being drafted.
Comments
LenDale White being safer than Norwood? Yeah sure, injury-prone, overweight and now splitting with Chris Brown, seems pretty safe to me.
LaMont Jordan safer? After 4 weeks he´s in the middle of a time-share, playing for the Raiders!
Jamal Lewis looked pretty good to me in preseason, even catching balls frequently.
Posted by: Stevo | August 29, 2007 10:31 AM
Greg I usually agree with you 100% - but your disenchantment with Jamal Lewis is puzzling. I am not saying Lewis is a great RB or fantasy back - but as a #3 option he is def better than Jordan, J Jones, and White -the reason? Simple - he has ZERO competition. I usually love upside also - but really when you are talking about a #3 RB, you want someone who can come in if your starter gets hurt and will not kill your team Lewis is the perfect guy for that - the others you mention may not even hold their jobs or be #1 options on theri teams. I think ur WAY off on Lewis.
Posted by: Scott | August 29, 2007 10:42 AM
I hear you Steve but I've seen what Lewis can do with no competition as the primary back on an offense that's better than Cleveland's. I believe he'll be worse as a Brown, so he's hard to take.
Posted by: Gregg | August 29, 2007 11:07 AM
How soon you seem to forget Jerome Harrison that plays right behind Jamal Lewis, he is a young talented back who could end up taking Jamal Lewis's starter position barring injury
Posted by: Jason | August 29, 2007 12:12 PM
Jerome Harrison? Is he your brother or something?
Posted by: Joel | August 29, 2007 02:40 PM
Lewis had 1,100 yards and 9 TDs last season.
Jordan had 400 yards and 2 TDs last season.
LenDale had 200 yards and 0 TDs last season.
I agree that Lewis will be worse, but that's a pretty big gap to overcome. Jordan has more competition than last year, and LenDale has competition from not only Chris Brown and the rookie, but also from Vince Young vultures.
Lewis will be playing the Browns twice less, and playing the Ravens twice more, and he'll be on a less productive offense, but I'd still take him over Jordan and LenDale. Lesser backs than Lewis on lesser teams than the Browns have put up more than the 800 yards and 4 TDs you guys are projecting for him. Even Rueben Droughns got 800 and 4 last year for the Browns.
Posted by: Tony C | August 29, 2007 04:33 PM
reuben droughns = jamal lewis
Posted by: evan | August 29, 2007 04:59 PM