Moving Time? (Clinton Portis)
When is it time to move Kevin Jones and Clinton Portis down our cheatsheets?
These are two of the toughest evaluations we face at Rotoworld this month, and similar decisions crop up for a number of injured players. Let's tackle both players in the next two posts.
Clinton Portis
We moved Clinton Portis down last week, to 255 carries, but he's still ranked 16th at running back - an early third-round value. That's close to his average draft position, possibly higher. Portis hasn't practiced this month. I contacted two people who cover the Redskins and neither had a good feeling about Portis' health. They thought his problems may linger and that this may be a bigger problem than reported. It's not a case of a guy wanting to take camp off.
The presence of Ladell Betts will make it easy for Joe Gibbs to split carries if he chooses. This could keep Portis healthier, but would limit his fantasy value. Bettis is currently projected for 155 carries.
One benefit both players have is Washington's offensive line and willingness to run. The Redskins should be among the league leaders in rushing attempts. Both players could have significant value, even in a committee.
Portis, though, needs to be the lead back to live up to that ADP. He's the ultimate boom-or-bust pick this season. He's a top-10 player if fully healthy. Do not understimate his high ceiling. Portis a good RB3 at worst if he's splitting carries. He's a bust if he can't stay healthy. He is coming off multiple surgeries.
I still see his potential as a fun gamble, but when do you take that gamble? He's a player that risk-taking owners will gamble on, then build depth behind him.
I'm stubbornly waiting for a sign of progress, but will downgrade Portis half a round today, behind Maurice Jones-Drew and Carnell Willliams. Betts will move up. It Portis doesn't practice by next weekend, he'll go down another round and a half. He's running out of time.
I'm curious what you guys think. Would you take Portis and when?
Comments
I don't think I would take Portis. I might be crazy but after last season Betts might have more upside and less injury risk. I have been burnt before by he likes of Holmes and Alexander.
The only way I would consider Portis is if I had one of the top 4 picks in my draft(LT2,SJ,Gore or Johnson
) and could steal him as a late RB2 or RB3. Then I would be covered if he underperformed.
Posted by: Cdn Fan | August 16, 2007 11:34 AM
I have the 25th pick in the third round and I'm still deciding on going RB1,WR1 and then Portis or RB1, RB2, WR1. I'm also looking at Benson, T Jones if I go RB2 in round 3. If I go WR1 in round 2 I'll target RB again in round 6-7 to add depth.
Posted by: Cowboys Fan | August 16, 2007 11:46 AM
I know you have not got to Jones yet but you made it sound like he was in for a downgrade. I got this in an email from a different fantasy site today:
Kevin Jones To Be Ready by Week 1
Detroit Lions offensive coordinator Mike Martz is expecting injured RB Kevin Jones to return by the start of the regular season. Jones is on the PUP list but does participate in team drills. Martz said Jones will have to earn his starting job back but he should be healthy enough to play in week 1. All this does is muddy the waters in the Detroit RB situation for us fantasy players. Just when it seemed like Tatum Bell was climbing the rankings, now Kevin Jones is good to go. I recommend drafting both of them or neither of them. If you draft just one of them, make sure you have plenty of other backs.
I cant get into this website at work so I dont know the source. (mlive maybe?) I didn't want to post a competing site on your website but you can email me if you want to know it.
ahypio at hotmail.com
Posted by: Utah Superfly | August 16, 2007 11:46 AM
I'm in an auction league that allows 5 keepers. I have Betts at $25, and can't decide which way to go on him. If Portis is on IR Betts would go for about $120. As a measuring stick for Betts with Portis at 100%, I expect Michael Turner, Anthony Thomas and Chris Brown to all go for between $5-$20. Marion Barber went for $12 last year, and turned out to be a steal. Cotchery is my other fifth option at $10 (we use 4 WRs with the league's top WRs going for $30-$40). Any thoughts on this?
Posted by: Rob | August 16, 2007 11:50 AM
Rob - I'm curious as to the parameters of your league (cap/scoring/etc.) if Betts would go for $120 with an injury to Portis, and yet the top WRs go for $30-40.
Posted by: HT | August 16, 2007 01:08 PM
Personally, I want no part of Portis. Why waste a pick on an injury prone RB on a team with an inexperienced QB and another RB on staff capable of taking the load?
Give me Jacobs, Cadillac or Benson. At least they don't have Betts breathing down their neck. As much upside as Portis has, it's not enough to pick him higher than RD4 and by that time, he'll be another owner's problem!
Posted by: JS | August 16, 2007 01:21 PM
I have Portis this year in my keeper league & despite all the news about his health issues, I'm not too worried. I was more concerned about his health last year & he put up decent overall numbers. I believe as long as he plays, he will be at the very least a serviceable RB2.
Posted by: BJ | August 16, 2007 01:57 PM