Larry Johnson's signing doesn't change risk
It’s hard to get excited about Larry Johnson ending his holdout. It’s a front page sports story concerning a top-five fantasy player, but it simply doesn’t have much affect on fantasy football. The only possible surprise in this holdout would have been if Larry Johnson was still unsigned two weeks from now.
Herm Edwards plays to win the game, but Larry Johnson also plays to get paid on the Monday after the game. LJ is a smart guy, one that knows his earning power may never be higher, and he held out to get the best deal possible. Good for him.
Let’s get one thing straight: Johnson is not ranked fifth in Rotoworld’s rankings because of the holdout. He was fourth all offseason because of his monstrous injury risk and the collapsing offense around him in Kansas City. We bumped him down to fifth last week below Joseph Addai because no one on staff would actually draft him fourth. Joseph Addai is a safer pick.
Rotoworld has assumed Johnson would be the Week 1 starter since the holdout started, so his signing doesn’t affect things. Our projected carries for Kansas City won’t change with the news. i hope that Kansas City will use backups Kolby Smith and Michael Bennett more often this season in an effort to keep LJ healthy, but that’s not really Herm Edwards’ style.
Larry Johnson owners in keeper leagues may be breathing easier Tuesday, but the Kansas City offensive line and the presence of Brodie Croyle are bigger concerns than the holdout ever was.
Comments
Gregg,
I value your opinion but also find it hard to believe that LJ should be ranked behind Gore and Addai. I think WAY too much emphasis is put on this 370+ carries theory leading to injury. There is not a large enough sample for this to be valid. LJ only has two full years of 300+ carries in the NFL which nobody talks about. If he had been carrying the ball 300+ times for several years it would hold more validity. If you want to view LJ below a top 3 pick then I can respect that based on the fact that the O-Line and rest of the supporting cast on the KC offense isn't what it once was. However, I think Gore's past history suggests he is much more of an injury risk than LJ. I would also argue that we can't forget the fact that LJ is a beast and to say that he will break down simply because he averaged 4-5 more carries per game than other RB's last year is not cause for concern in my book. All NFL RB's pose some threat as an injury risk but, in my opinion, to pass on LJ at #3 would be a mistake in any format.
Posted by: RJ | August 22, 2007 01:48 AM
Gregg, this is the first time I have questioned anything on this site. But I have to question the reasoning behind placing LJ behind Gore. I just cannot see it. Premier athletes will produce and find ways to perform. I believe he is top 3 material.
Posted by: Dave | August 22, 2007 02:00 PM
Priest Holmes was at best an average RB until he got behind KC's line. LJ couldn't even get on the field to share carries for nearly two years, so how "elite" or special can he really be? Just like all of those 1,000 yard Denver rushers who were awful before and after their stints with Denver, the line made them. The line that made LJ and Priest is no longer there in KC. LJ will be closer to the 10th to 15th best RB this year. I have the 5th pick in my draft and I will take Addai, Parker, and Gore ahead of LJ.
Posted by: Tony C | August 23, 2007 03:42 PM
O5Vrek
Posted by: Tconkbki | July 15, 2009 07:23 PM
O5Vrek
Posted by: Tconkbki | July 15, 2009 07:23 PM