Larry Johnson's signing doesn't change risk
It’s hard to get excited about Larry Johnson ending his holdout. It’s a front page sports story concerning a top-five fantasy player, but it simply doesn’t have much affect on fantasy football. The only possible surprise in this holdout would have been if Larry Johnson was still unsigned two weeks from now.
Herm Edwards plays to win the game, but Larry Johnson also plays to get paid on the Monday after the game. LJ is a smart guy, one that knows his earning power may never be higher, and he held out to get the best deal possible. Good for him.
Let’s get one thing straight: Johnson is not ranked fifth in Rotoworld’s rankings because of the holdout. He was fourth all offseason because of his monstrous injury risk and the collapsing offense around him in Kansas City. We bumped him down to fifth last week below Joseph Addai because no one on staff would actually draft him fourth. Joseph Addai is a safer pick.
Rotoworld has assumed Johnson would be the Week 1 starter since the holdout started, so his signing doesn’t affect things. Our projected carries for Kansas City won’t change with the news. i hope that Kansas City will use backups Kolby Smith and Michael Bennett more often this season in an effort to keep LJ healthy, but that’s not really Herm Edwards’ style.
Larry Johnson owners in keeper leagues may be breathing easier Tuesday, but the Kansas City offensive line and the presence of Brodie Croyle are bigger concerns than the holdout ever was.
Comments
Gregg,
I did read your Tiers of Heaven:RB's and see where you put LJ in the Tier Two. I like Addai and Gore, but I find it hard for LJ to be behind these guys. Both have had only one good year and now they are ahead of LJ?
I have the 3rd pick in my upcoming draft so I figure LT and S.Jackson will be off the board when I pick. I really don't want to pick LJ but he is the best on my board. I'm gald to see he finally agreed to a deal with the Chiefs, but will he be ready for the start of the season?
With my second rd pick in a 10 team league should I go after a top WR like C.Johnson and then with my 3rd rd pick go after McNabb? Then go after the best RB/WR's that are left?
THANKS!!!
Posted by: AD | August 21, 2007 03:51 PM
If you value another person's opinion besides Gregg, here is my opinion. The first question you have to ask yourself is if you have a limit on the number of players per position. Here is the strategy. If you are a late round pick in the draft, then you have to pickup a running back in your first round pick and then when it snakes around to you for the early second round pick you have to pick up a tier one wideout or the best wideout possible. Then on your 3rd round pick, you have to judge how people pick. Some people jump early on top QB's. Me personally, I rather have plenty of RB's and Wideouts. let the other's panic and jump after Top QB's early and top DF's. Use your picks to scrap up as many top wideouts and handcuff's RB's as possible. After about week 3 or 4 when everyone else's players are hurt and they need wideouts and RB's they will come to you and you can make trades in your favor or just make them suffer for being stupid while drafting. Took me a while to realize this, but it works. There are only a couple Top QB's, Wideouts, Defs and TE's available. Get the other players and you will benefit in the end.
Posted by: Dayvon | August 21, 2007 04:29 PM
I atually listend to Bill Simmon's podcast last night, and his guest was the DVOA guy. Great interview. He talked about the 370 carry mark. Only LT has outdone the odds. However, I dont see Carl Peterson shelling out all that cash unless they were going to preserve him a little better.
Posted by: Zachary | August 21, 2007 04:33 PM
LJ is without question a top 5 back. The big concern I have with him is the frequency of guys getting injured and pulling muscles when they come into camp this late.
Posted by: Iridh Glory | August 21, 2007 04:45 PM
Dayvon,
Thanks for your insight! I have the 3rd pick in this years draft. Like you I never draft a QB early, I usually draft a QB in the 5th. However, last year I suffered QB problems all season after several different ones cost me several games. I told myself this year I would grab a top QB early and try a different strategy.
1:3 First I need to decide between Gore and LJ with the 3rd pick in the 1st rd.
2:18 Second would you go top wr Chad Jackson, Steve Smith or a 2RB (Henry, Bush, Edge, Benson, Brown)?
3:23 Top Qb, RB or WR?
I am in a 10 team league and there are limits. So once I decide on my fisrt pick would you just see how the draft started to unfold? With there being only 10 teams there will be plenty of fill-in players. SO do I go after an elite player at each position?
Thanks for your help and others who want to chime in...AD
Posted by: AD | August 21, 2007 04:58 PM
I meant a top WR like Chad Johnson (Cin)...NOT Chad Jackson from NE.
Posted by: AD | August 21, 2007 05:02 PM
I also have a #3, #22, then #27. I hope to take Gore, Best WR, then Jacobs and more WRs...the rest is gravy.
Posted by: Chuck | August 21, 2007 10:04 PM