How low should Holt go?
Football players, especially ones in their thirties, usually avoid surgery at all costs. Surgery begets more surgery in the future, and one never knows how the recovery will go.
Torry Holt, who noticeably slowed at the end of the last two seasons, is learning the hard way.
It's just one of those deals where I'm not recovering as quick as I used to. I have to get used to that and stay patient. ... I don't know if it'll ever heal all the way, but I think it will heal enough where it will allow me to go out and play.
Ugh. Holt said he was near 70 or 80 percent, a number that will cause his stock to drop across Fantasy Nation. But how far?
Rotoworld is only moving him two spots down in the wide receiver rankings, below Terrell Owens and Larry Fitzgerald. That knocks him out of the first tier. We'd consider moving him further if not for a couple factors.
1. Holt has practiced and played throughout training camp. He caught six passes for 52 yards in the first two preseason games. If he's hurt, he's hurt enough to play, and probably play well. He was clearly slowed in December last year. His numbers: 30 catches, 393 yards, three touchdowns in five games.
2. We knew about this recovery all offseason. It's gone slowly. Holt may talk about his injury more than others, but the reality is that he's been on the field plenty. If Holt works his way to full health by midseason, he's still worth his draft slot.
3. He's Torry Holt. He'll get huge targets on a pass-first offense. He's a Hall of Famer that has put up huge numbers for seven straight years. Last year was probably his worst since his rookie campaign. He recorded 1,188 yards and ten scores.
I'm concerned enough to knock Holt down to a third-down value, but don't go crazy. 80% of Holt is still better than 100% of most everyone else.
Comments
Gregg,
I agree with your assessment of Torry Holt. No question, he's a great WR, career-wise, but fantasy football is all about THIS year, not career accomplishments. Holt is 31, and a WR coming off knee surgery in his 30's is not a good thing.
Question: how does this development affect QB Marc Bulger's status as a Tier 2 QB. Does St. Louis become even more of a running team, relying even more on Steven Jackson??
Love the Tiers of Heaven and Goal Line Stand. :o)
Posted by: michael cha | August 28, 2007 02:42 PM
Keith,
I don't think you can go wrong with grabbing any two of the following WRs from the following list that should be available at 24-25:
Holt, Torry
Williams, Roy
Fitzgerald, Larry
Houshmandzadeh, T.J.
Evans, Lee
Walker, Javon
Driver, Donald
Colston, Marques
Boldin, Anquan
Johnson, Andre
Just make sure you know your League scoring, how many RB and WRs must start including if there RB/WR flex, and the other owners. In my league, we have owners who have man crushes on Steve Smith, TO, Reggie Wayne, and Boldin.
You'll be fine. Worse thing you can do is stress about it. You can definitely lose by screwing up the first few rounds, but that's not where Championships are won. It's the middle rounds. Good luck!
Posted by: Steve | August 28, 2007 02:47 PM
thanks Steve. From your list, I would probably take Roy Williams first.
Posted by: Keith | August 28, 2007 03:00 PM
Anytime... Here are the results of my draft with where each player was selected (1st round was keepers):
1. (8) Larry Johnson RB
2. (13) Brian Westbrook RB
3. (28) Reggie Wayne WR
4. (33) T.J. Houshmandzadeh WR
5. (48) Deuce McAllister RB
6. (53) Plaxico Burress WR
7. (68) Adrian Peterson RB (MIN)
8. (73) Darrell Jackson WR
9. (88) Jason Witten TE
10. (93) San Diego DEF
11. (108) Devery Henderson WR
12. (113) Greg Jennings WR
13. (128) Philip Rivers QB
14. (133) Robbie Gould K
The only player taken before I could get him was Vernon Davis (two spots before me). My concern is with Westbrook. Maybe I drop Devery or Jennings for Buckhalter (backup, but major injury issues) or Hunt OR grab Leon Washington. We start 2RBs, 3WRs, and have 1 RB/WR flex. The other spots are TE, QB, K, and DEF. Only four bench spots, which makes it more difficult for teams to hoard, but should also promote trading... maybe.
What do you think? Drop Devery or Jennings or someone else to pick up Hunt, Buckhalter, or L.Washington?
Posted by: Steve | August 28, 2007 03:07 PM
The Edward Jones Dome has Field Turf, not Astroturf. A world of difference. Holt will be skipping practices and babying the knee during the week. Big deal. He can run perfect routes in his sleep. He also said his knee, while not 100%, feels better than it did the last part of 2006 but no one will report this. Holt is a gamer and will be a top 5 wideout.
Posted by: Bill | August 28, 2007 03:17 PM
I know it doesn't look like a sell high right now but the same thing happen with Alexander last season. Reports started to come out at the end of camp and everyone hoped for the best. Holt's rep might get someone to do a Holt for A. Johnson. I have Wayne, Holt, Branch, Curry and J. Jones as my WRs in a 14-team league and would take A. Johnson in a second. I would consider adding in J. Jones or Curry just to get rid of Holt.
Posted by: sean | August 28, 2007 05:45 PM
Holt has had some fine years but he was showing signs last year of slowing down. He may get his 1,000 yards but he wont be on the field for a full season.
Posted by: Ken | August 28, 2007 06:40 PM