How low should Holt go?
Football players, especially ones in their thirties, usually avoid surgery at all costs. Surgery begets more surgery in the future, and one never knows how the recovery will go.
Torry Holt, who noticeably slowed at the end of the last two seasons, is learning the hard way.
It's just one of those deals where I'm not recovering as quick as I used to. I have to get used to that and stay patient. ... I don't know if it'll ever heal all the way, but I think it will heal enough where it will allow me to go out and play.
Ugh. Holt said he was near 70 or 80 percent, a number that will cause his stock to drop across Fantasy Nation. But how far?
Rotoworld is only moving him two spots down in the wide receiver rankings, below Terrell Owens and Larry Fitzgerald. That knocks him out of the first tier. We'd consider moving him further if not for a couple factors.
1. Holt has practiced and played throughout training camp. He caught six passes for 52 yards in the first two preseason games. If he's hurt, he's hurt enough to play, and probably play well. He was clearly slowed in December last year. His numbers: 30 catches, 393 yards, three touchdowns in five games.
2. We knew about this recovery all offseason. It's gone slowly. Holt may talk about his injury more than others, but the reality is that he's been on the field plenty. If Holt works his way to full health by midseason, he's still worth his draft slot.
3. He's Torry Holt. He'll get huge targets on a pass-first offense. He's a Hall of Famer that has put up huge numbers for seven straight years. Last year was probably his worst since his rookie campaign. He recorded 1,188 yards and ten scores.
I'm concerned enough to knock Holt down to a third-down value, but don't go crazy. 80% of Holt is still better than 100% of most everyone else.
Comments
Jack--I am in New York, so I expect that Jacobs will be taken by a Giants fan even before I pick at # 24. And no, I would not take Evans before Holt. I would sooner take 3 RBs in the first 3 rounds, or even a QB in round 3.
Posted by: Keith | August 28, 2007 01:31 PM
If you're an owner that has Holt all you can do is sit tight & hope he plays early.
There is no way you can "sell high" right now. You won't get value that's close right now.
A savvy owner might "buy low" though. Offer up guys like Darrell Jackson, Plax, or a Javon Walker.
Posted by: Shane | August 28, 2007 01:41 PM
Good point. Way to know the competition. And I agree with Shane, not much you can do now if you already have him. Just hope he puts up 80% of his average, which would keep him in the top 20 WRs, and if he stays close to what he's done over the better part of the last decade, then even better.
Posted by: Jack | August 28, 2007 02:08 PM
I would definetly upgrade Bennett and Bruce. Why risk having him as your top WR when you can draft Fitzgerald, Owens, Wayne Etc. Hes older and his numbers have declined. Let Holt be someone elses problem.
Posted by: Nelson Vazquez | August 28, 2007 02:09 PM
With Holt slowing and Issac Bruce being old enough to get the Sr. Citizen's discount @ Apple Bee's... What value does it add to Drew Bennet?
Posted by: Tony V | August 28, 2007 02:12 PM
how much if anything does this do to Bulger's draft position ?
Posted by: Keith | August 28, 2007 02:15 PM
Holt is a Hall of Famer? I hope Art Monk and Mark Clayton don't read this blog.
Posted by: Shark | August 28, 2007 02:15 PM