How low should Holt go?
Football players, especially ones in their thirties, usually avoid surgery at all costs. Surgery begets more surgery in the future, and one never knows how the recovery will go.
Torry Holt, who noticeably slowed at the end of the last two seasons, is learning the hard way.
It's just one of those deals where I'm not recovering as quick as I used to. I have to get used to that and stay patient. ... I don't know if it'll ever heal all the way, but I think it will heal enough where it will allow me to go out and play.
Ugh. Holt said he was near 70 or 80 percent, a number that will cause his stock to drop across Fantasy Nation. But how far?
Rotoworld is only moving him two spots down in the wide receiver rankings, below Terrell Owens and Larry Fitzgerald. That knocks him out of the first tier. We'd consider moving him further if not for a couple factors.
1. Holt has practiced and played throughout training camp. He caught six passes for 52 yards in the first two preseason games. If he's hurt, he's hurt enough to play, and probably play well. He was clearly slowed in December last year. His numbers: 30 catches, 393 yards, three touchdowns in five games.
2. We knew about this recovery all offseason. It's gone slowly. Holt may talk about his injury more than others, but the reality is that he's been on the field plenty. If Holt works his way to full health by midseason, he's still worth his draft slot.
3. He's Torry Holt. He'll get huge targets on a pass-first offense. He's a Hall of Famer that has put up huge numbers for seven straight years. Last year was probably his worst since his rookie campaign. He recorded 1,188 yards and ten scores.
I'm concerned enough to knock Holt down to a third-down value, but don't go crazy. 80% of Holt is still better than 100% of most everyone else.
Comments
I have the first pick in a 12 team league. I am looking for a "stud" receiver to be there for me at # 24/25. Smith, Johnson and Harrison likely will be gone when I pick. Owens as well. I think I have to take Reggie Wayne and even Roy Williams before Holt. I can't spend an entire season with my #1 WR always being listed as "questionable", whether he ends up playing or not. Let some other owner deal with that.
Posted by: Keith | August 28, 2007 12:59 PM
I have the first pick in a 12 team league. I am looking for a "stud" receiver to be there for me at # 24/25. Smith, Johnson and Harrison likely will be gone when I pick. Owens as well. I think I have to take Reggie Wayne and even Roy Williams before Holt. I can't spend an entire season with my #1 WR always being listed as "questionable", whether he ends up playing or not. Let some other owner deal with that.
Posted by: Keith | August 28, 2007 01:01 PM
I'd take these WRs before Holt:
Johnson, Chad
Smith, Steve
Harrison, Marvin
Wayne, Reggie
Owens, Terrell
Williams, Roy
Fitzgerald, Larry
Houshmandzadeh, T.J.
Evans, Lee
Walker, Javon
BUT If you can get Holt as your #2 WR even at 70-80% that would be a steal. In my 10 team league, Holt went 3.9 (7th WR taken).
Posted by: Steve | August 28, 2007 01:21 PM
I had the same issue last week but Wayne went early and I was left with Holt as the only top tier rcvr left. Already having LT, I went Holt/Williams. With Arizona the way it is, I think you still have to put Holt ahead of Fitz at the top of that second group of WRs. Besides, you'll still have LT, and if all the top WRs are gone you can relax and scoop Jacobs at the turn
Posted by: Jack | August 28, 2007 01:22 PM
thanks Steve. I didn't think Holt would drop THAT low. What about Driver ? I'd love to get him with the last pick of the 4th round (# 48). Plax however I am wary of--even if he is there at # 48.
Posted by: Keith | August 28, 2007 01:25 PM
Just relax people. And don't even think about taking Evans (Buffalo, Jauron, freaking Losman) above Holt. I can't believe that someone even wrote that.
Posted by: Jack | August 28, 2007 01:25 PM
seen it coming because i'm in the st. louis area and i've had knee injuries myself. He's be a top guy, but just below elite. Why gamble if you got other choices? You might even be albe to get Isaac Bruce off the waiver wire. Bottom line, worth consideration but won't match last years stats. Sell high now if you have him. If not, wait 4 games and buy low.
Posted by: JEB | August 28, 2007 01:29 PM