How low should Holt go?
Football players, especially ones in their thirties, usually avoid surgery at all costs. Surgery begets more surgery in the future, and one never knows how the recovery will go.
Torry Holt, who noticeably slowed at the end of the last two seasons, is learning the hard way.
It's just one of those deals where I'm not recovering as quick as I used to. I have to get used to that and stay patient. ... I don't know if it'll ever heal all the way, but I think it will heal enough where it will allow me to go out and play.
Ugh. Holt said he was near 70 or 80 percent, a number that will cause his stock to drop across Fantasy Nation. But how far?
Rotoworld is only moving him two spots down in the wide receiver rankings, below Terrell Owens and Larry Fitzgerald. That knocks him out of the first tier. We'd consider moving him further if not for a couple factors.
1. Holt has practiced and played throughout training camp. He caught six passes for 52 yards in the first two preseason games. If he's hurt, he's hurt enough to play, and probably play well. He was clearly slowed in December last year. His numbers: 30 catches, 393 yards, three touchdowns in five games.
2. We knew about this recovery all offseason. It's gone slowly. Holt may talk about his injury more than others, but the reality is that he's been on the field plenty. If Holt works his way to full health by midseason, he's still worth his draft slot.
3. He's Torry Holt. He'll get huge targets on a pass-first offense. He's a Hall of Famer that has put up huge numbers for seven straight years. Last year was probably his worst since his rookie campaign. He recorded 1,188 yards and ten scores.
I'm concerned enough to knock Holt down to a third-down value, but don't go crazy. 80% of Holt is still better than 100% of most everyone else.
Comments
here's the short answer.
in my 12 team league draft yesterday, he went at 4.3.
also, i got clinton portis at 4.12.
even if portis only gets ~15 touches a game, i'll take LT + Portis any day of the week, esp. in the late 4th - should've waited til the backside of the turn so i could say i got him in the 5th.
Posted by: The Dox | August 28, 2007 10:24 AM
Thought I got a steal last weekend when I got him at 2.12, should've taken Jacobs. I love drafting two weeks early, YES!!!
Posted by: Jack | August 28, 2007 11:19 AM
Torry Holt will not play a full season. He will have to play all his home games on astro-turf which will take to much of a toll on an aging WR body.
Posted by: Mike Bowen | August 28, 2007 11:31 AM
The other big question is how much do we upgrade Bennett and/or Bruce in our rankings? Bennett already figured to take away many red zone targets from the other WRs...how much does this add to his value?
Posted by: Jim | August 28, 2007 12:18 PM
OK, now that we know about Holt and his knee issues, what about the value of Bulger? How does it effect him and his rankings? took him with 3.5 this past week as all top 5 qbs were off board by 4.6
Posted by: ed | August 28, 2007 12:28 PM
I'm trying to unload him today to other owners in my league who don't know about this site :)
Posted by: Joe | August 28, 2007 12:35 PM
I have to agree with rotoworld on this one.
I'd downgrade Holt a little bit but Holt is a gamer.
He'll probably be questionable every week & not practice much but I'd still expect 70+ catches, 1,100 yards & 6-10 td's.
Posted by: Sean-O | August 28, 2007 12:40 PM