The Rapid Decline of Warrick Dunn
Over-30 running backs don't lose their mojo gradually. Just ask Curtis Martin, Duce Staley, and Priest Holmes.
We can probably add Warrick Dunn to the list. Halfway through last season, Dunn was a top-15 fantasy running back on pace for 1,300 rushing yards. He stumbled to the finish line with a 3.4 yards-per-carry average in the second half, then was forced to undergo serious shoulder surgery after the year. He watched his prize offensive line change schemes, his quarterback is under indictment, and now a herniated disc in his back will force him to miss the preseason.
I’m skeptical about the 3-4 week timeline the Falcons placed on the injury, especially after originaly reports were closer to six weeks. Dunn's body is failing him.
When he returns, don't expect to see the same player we last saw. The Falcons offense will be diminished, with Jerious Norwood likely to be one of the bright spots. Dunn was already headed for a reserve role, so fantasy leaguers should not count on Warrick Dunn helping them this season. Before this injury, I divided the carries in the Atlanta backfield like this.
Norwood: 205
Dunn: 155
Jason Snelling: 30
That left Norwood with a fifth-round grade and Dunn with a late-eighth-round grade.
Now I'll project Snelling and undrafted rookie Justin Vincent to pick up few carries depending on how camp goes. Look for Norwood to get a healthy boost in carries and fantasy points, while Dunn sinks to around 100 carries. He came into the league as a third-down back and he’ll probably leave as one. If he’s lucky.
Comments
Ughhhh...yet another team that is nearly undraftable for fantasy purposes. I guess Norwood is worth a look as a RB3 at best, but I'm not seeing me touch many Falcons this year. Can you sat Joey Harrington?
Posted by: Josh | July 25, 2007 08:22 PM
the falcons haven't had many relevant FF players for a while anyways.
it was crumpler, vick, dunn.
this year it'll just be norwood and crumpler. crump should be fine i think. if there's anything harrington can do, it's get scared and dump it off to his TE.
Posted by: The Dox | July 25, 2007 10:32 PM
yeah, i wouldn't say undraftable, but things aren't looking good in atl, obv.
norwood is a decent pick, and i think he'll end up being a good rb2.
and vick is always "relevant" but it's probably a good year to stay away from this team on the whole.
i've heard good things about snelling, the rb from virginia.
Posted by: dibble | July 26, 2007 09:09 AM
Crumpler will probably have a good year.
Posted by: j | July 26, 2007 09:34 AM
snelling is the only back on our roster that fits the "petrino" RB mold.. (ie, 240+ lbs). the buzz so far is that he's our new starting fullback, but i wouldn't be at all surprised to see him take over as ATL's new TJ Duckett.
Posted by: The Dox | July 26, 2007 01:32 PM