Mining Mid-Round Value
One of the keys to drafting in the middle round is taking stock of how thin each available position is. I am about to be on the clock once again in the draft I've written about all week. The picks are 7.13 and 8.02 in a 14-team league.
Here's my squad so far ...
QB: Donovan McNabb
RB: Steven Jackson, Jerious Norwood, LenDale White
WR: Reggie Wayne, Larry Fitzgerald, D.J. Hackett
TE:
To help me decide what to draft, I'm using mostly Rotoworld's tiers. But I'm also checking how many people have been drafted at each position. So far 16 QBs, 42 WRs, 10 TEs, and 42 RBs have been taken.
It's time to take a tight end. Looking at my rankings, I'm happy with Ben Watson or L.J. Smith as my starter, but it's a decent drop-off after that. I'll take Watson if he's available. The other choice is difficult. There has just been a QB run, and I am confident in McNabb most weeks. Two of my favorite quarterback value plays usually slip to the end of drafts, so I'll wait.
That leaves picking up a fourth receiver or a fourth running back. We start three wideouts, so the fourth spot is basially a starter once you factor in bye weeks and matchups. Since I'm somewhat thin at running back, that holds a slight premium.
Here are my best options, in order of how Rotoworld ranks them
RB: Mike Bell, Leon Washington, Ron Dayne
WR: Ronald Curry, Matt Jones, Jerry Porter, Brandon Jones
Having a good fourth running back is a luxury, but our tiers says Bell is the last name on the line. Curry and Porter are tempting, but the Oakland passing game remains a concern. Matt Jones is a boom-or-bust, but has a high ceiling for a pick this late. Curry is the most likely player to slip to round
So do you go for running back security (Bell) or necessary wideout depth (Jones or Curry)?
Comments
I would say go WR here without a doubt. The RB's your thinking about could be completely worthless or could do well, the WR's have most of the upside with not as much downside.
Posted by: J | July 31, 2007 03:54 PM
In a 14 team league, someone is bound to have a RB go down (or 4), so as much as you need another WR, Bell would be the better pick for the future (ie trade bait) for when Henry goes down. If you must go WR, I'd go with B Jones. Moulds doesn't scare anyone and although Matt is also a quasi #1, according to recent posts, its actually a good idea to grab a same team WR/RB tandem, especially on a team like the Titans due to VYoungs inconsistency
Posted by: Jack | July 31, 2007 04:13 PM
You need to take Matt Jones. You can add a RB later since there's not much there that is worth much value anyway...and you never know what may transpire in some team's camp betwen now and then. Perhaps an injury will lead to a backup becoming "the" guy.
Posted by: Rick Olson | July 31, 2007 04:29 PM
I agree with taking a RB, but Dayne would be my choice. Reason- He has the higher chance of filling in for an injured A. Green than Bell for Henry or Washington for Jones. Plus there is talk of Dayne being used in short yardage even when Green is healthy.
Posted by: craig | July 31, 2007 04:32 PM
I think you go RB and I'd take Droughns here. It's not a flashy pick, but this guy even got over thousand yards in Cleveland. While I like Jacobs, he's not proven that he can carry the load.
I'd like Washington here maybe if it was a PPR league, but Bell has too many questions attached to him; he's currently running behind Cecil Sapp in camp. And Dayne....seriously?
I'd take Droughns here and then the best available TE with your next pick, preferably Watson.
Good luck.
Posted by: Chris in the 'Nati | July 31, 2007 05:34 PM
You have to go RB here and I think it's a close call between Dayne and Bell. But since you have Bell rated higher, he's the choice.
No point to take gambles on receivers now, you can always load up on them in later rounds.
Posted by: TD | July 31, 2007 06:51 PM
Gregg, I have to agree with the "take a RB" suggestons above...your choices are thin and I almost agree with taking, gulp, Ron Dayne. I just don't see Ahman staying healthy. Mike Bell could (will) see time too with Shanahan running the show.
The WRs you named just seem like guys...you could probably do better on the waiver wire early in the season!
Watson or LJ will be good TEs that late. Take advantage...
Best of luck...
Posted by: Josh | July 31, 2007 07:29 PM