July 12, 2007
#45. Saints TE: Eric Johnson vs. Billy Miller
Already to No. 45 on our list - feel the excitement! Our third tight end battle (with only three to go) could be lucrative. Most of Fantasy Nation is handing the starting job to Eric Johnson, he of the 82-catch 2004 season. But Sean Payton had Johnson on the second and third teams during minicamp season, indicating nothing will be handed to him.
Billy Miller caught eight passes in two playoff games and knows the system. It’s hard to imagine Miller being a fantasy option, but he could cancel Johnson out by keeping his job. Mark Campbell is also in the mix, but should be a backup.
Johnson missed the entire 2003 and 2005 seasons because of injury, the primary reason other teams weren’t interested on the free agent. He has great hands, but no down-field ability. That skill set could still be quite valuable in New Orleans’ pass-wacky system. With question marks at the number two and three receiver spots, Drew Brees may be looking underneath often. And all the good cover linebackers and safeties will be on Reggie Bush.
Johnson has enough skills to be drafted in points-per-reception leagues as a TE2, with a 50-60 catch ceiling. First he has to beat out Miller for the job in August or all bets are off.
Actual NFL news today! Other blogs have been all over the Supplemental draft in the last two weeks.
The proceedings occured today, with Chargers drafting Georgia Tech corner Paul Oliver in the fourth round, and Baltimore taking Maryland T Jared Gaither in the fifth round.
Oliver is another physical corner for San Diego's improved unit. This move likely precedes Drayton Florence cashing in elsewhere in 2008 while Antonio Cromartie moves into the starting lineup. After trading up for Eric Weddle, the Chargers are now without third and fourth-round picks next year.
Gaither is just the type of huge offensive line prospect that Baltimore specializes in developing. He's a candidate to replace Jonathan Ogden one day.
# 46. Broncos third receiver: Brandon Stokley vs. Rod Smith
This battle is far more dramatic in real life than for fantasy leaguers. One franchise legend facing off against another career overachiever, with the loser possibly being sent into retirement.
Smith’s hip injury may force him to miss the first six games of the year on the PUP list, which could almost do Mike Shanahan a favor. Does The Mastermind really want to carry Smith (or Stokley) as a fourth receiver?
By the time six games are up, perhaps there would be a logical spot for Smith if Stokley or Brandon Marshall are hurt. (Marshall is already having problems.)Shanahan’s poor drafting record (Darius Watts, Ashley Lelie) and his inability to turn around veterans (David Terrell, Jerry Rice) has hurt the team’s depth in recent years.
In the end, I’m not going near either of these two guys in fantasy leagues. But I’m pulling for Smith to get a proper career sendoff.
The Man who ate Pittsburgh
ESPN has already cornered the lucrative “Next” and “Now” markets, so we wanted to get ahead of the curve. Here’s a look at the recent fantasy football heroes who are already done.
Rotoworld’s Done 2007
Quarterback
Aaron Brooks: Between 2002-2005, only two fantasy quarterbacks finished in the top eight point scorers every season: Peyton Manning and Mr. Brooks. After the half-hearted debacles in New Orleans and Oakland the last two years, A.B. isn’t getting a sniff as a starter. Fair enough. But he’s got to be better than half the backups in the league. Brad Childress, I’m talking to you.
Jake Plummer: The Bucs like Jeff Garcia and all, but they have been practically begging The Snake to return from his grueling Handball schedule to return to the NFL. They are threatening to take away his signing bonus money, so Plummer needs to retire officially or make a “comeback” soon.
Drew Bledsoe: Was it only a year ago Bledsoe was getting drafted as a top-12 option? Sorry about that. Teams will keep calling Drew to be a backup, but he’s through.
Continue reading "Who's Done?" »
July 11, 2007
No pics of Nate Washington in the database
Been plowing through submissions for our newswriter job all afternoon - thanks to everyone who worked on samples. Let's get back to the battles countdown before signing off the blog for the day.
# 47. Steelers third receiver: Cedrick Wilson vs. Nate Washington
When Ben Roethlisberger wasn't wildly throwing to the opposition, he did a decent job wildly throwing to his teammates last year. Pittsburgh was the only NFL team that had four receivers over 500 yards in 2006. With Santonio Holmes emerging, a position that was a weakness only two years ago now looks like a strength.
The numbers indicate that the battle between Nate Washington and Cedric Wilson isn't as irrelevent as it sounds. Washington, in his first real season of action, exploded for 624 yards and four touchdowns. That was good enough to finish as RB48. Wilson has been serviceable since coming over from San Francisco, but he's always been miscast in Pittsburgh as a seam buster. After four straight seasons hovering around 500 yards, Wilson has plateaued. He's not going to help you in fantasy leagues.
That's why fantasy leaguers and Ben Roethlisberger owners should be rooting for Washington, an undrafted player out of Tiffin University. Washington's vertical game stats are eye opening. Out of 35 catches, 11 were for more than 20 yards, and four were for 45+. The Steelers love going deep and Washington could be their best option.
I wouldn't draft Washington in most leagues, but he could be a fantasy starter if Holmes or Ward ever get hurt. At worst, he's a solid injury fill-in if he can beat out Wilson. Perhaps my favorite thing about him is his inexperience. He stepped up huge for a second-year player out of a tiny school. His ascent might just be starting.
# 48. Packers TE. Donald Lee vs. Bubba Franks vs. Tory Humphrey
This spot was originally going to be the Oakland starting tight end battle, but the odds on any Raider winner being a fantasy option are slim.
Green Bay’s candidates are long shots as well, but they have a few things going for them. Brett Favre is going to throw a ton, he likes using the tight end, and Green Bay’s wideout group is thin.
Franks has fallen on hard times recently and was running with the second and third team during minicamps. He’s only 29, but has declined since getting a big contract. Tory Humprey is a NFLE prospect that is mostly unknown, but the Packers seem to like him. Donald Lee caught a career-high 33 passes in 2005 and looks to be the favorite.
I’m not excited about any of these options, but the Packers tight ends have averaged 70 catches a year as a group the last two seasons. If they focus on one guy, probably Lee, he could be an injury replacement in fantasy leagues. Woo.
Is Rod Smith nearing the end?
Just because he can, Mike Shanahan held his only mandatory minicamp in the middle of July. He cut it short by a day, but we still learned quite a bit in two days.
1. Brandon Marshall is a riskier bet than expected
When we included Marshall on our magazine sleeper list, we knew he was a boom-or-bust pick. Great physical skills, terrific opportunity, little track record. Now he looks even shakier. Marshall couldn't make it through two days of workouts without re-injuring his thigh. Jay Cutler said Marshall looked overweight after missing all of June.
There have been questions about Marshall's professionalism in the past, and he still may be too immature to handle a big role. He may work his way back into shape slowly. The injuries could be a problem this season.
Continue reading "What we learned: Broncos Minicamp" »
July 10, 2007
The date changes every year, but one of my favorite days on the calendar is when the Patriots sign Troy Brown to a one-year contract. I get at least one more active year out of my Brown #80 jersey.
Brown wasn't considered a lock to make the team last year, so he's definitely no sure thing this season. The Herald speculates that Brown, Reche Caldwell, Jabar Gaffney, and Kelley Washington are battling for 2-3 spots. I'm going to put Caldwell on the team. Sure, he dropped two big passes in the AFC Championship, but he also put up 621 yards and five scores in his last eleven games last year. He's a good player and it wouldn't shock me if he steals the starting job from Donte' Stallworth.
That leaves Brown, Gaffney, and Washington fighting for 1-2 spots. Brown's versatility on special teams and defense gives him an advantage. I can't imagine Washington covering the slot. That said, Brown will probably go from slow to glacial after surgery at his age. My guess is that Belichick finds a spot for him and Gaffney is sent packing, with Washington on the bubble.
Does this have much fantasy impact? Probably not for a while - we're talking about fifth receivers here. Just keep Brown in mind for a Week 17 pickup when Belichick starts drawing up Testaverde-to-Brown touchdowns.
# 49. Browns third receiver: Tim Carter vs. Travis Wilson
When you make a top-50 list of position battles, the bottom isn't going to be pretty. And the bottom is exactly where Cleveland's passing game has been since Kelly Holcomb helped them achieve mediocrity in 2002. The Browns quarterback situation remains up in the air (will come later in the countdown), but the strides made on the offensive line look promising.
Cleveland has a thin wideout group, with Braylon Edwards and Joe Jurevicius starting. Jurevicius is a player annually overrated in fantasy leagues, someone who has never topped 750 yards and is often hurt. He's missed 20 games in the last four years and has recurring back problems. With Dennis Northcutt gone, odds are that Tim Carter or Travis Wilson will start at some point this season.
Carter had chance after chance in New York, but never made a real impact in five years with the Giants. He was often hurt, but did manage to start eight games last season. He caught 22 balls for a decent passing offense. The Browns traded Reuben Droughns for him, but there's little reason to think he'll succeed.
Travis Wilson was a third-round pick in 2006, but only played enough to catch two passes. He had a tremendous junior season at Oklahoma and may have been a first-round pick before a senior year ended by injuries. We were very high on him coming into the draft because of his size and speed, but he didn't crack a weak Browns group.
GM Phil Savage's inactivity at receiver tells me they still have high hopes for Wilson. This battle is too close to call, but I suspect the Browns are pulling for the guy they drafted. In deeeep dynasty leagues like the one I play in, Wilson is a guy to keep an eye on.
August is a month for the football players on the fringes. While LaDainian Tomlinson mostly rests, undrafted players fight for spots on the practice squad. Declining veterans try to hold on to their roster spots. And players on the cusp on stardom battle each other for playing time. That’s when fantasy leaguers should start paying attention.
Over the next few weeks, we'll count down the top 50 position battles to watch during training camp. We try not to get carried away with preseason game results, rather the depth chart adjustments that coaches make. Players usually earn snaps in practice, and they solidify them in the preseason.
Evan Silva will update all the battles in detail throughout a weekly training camp column. This series should help you know where to look.
The beginning of the countdown will be for the true fantasy junkies that like to know every starter. Just barely missing the list were the battles for the starting tight end job in Arizona (Leonard Pope vs. field) and Buffalo (Bubba Kevin Everett vs. Robert Royal). The winners there just aren't likely to matter.
No. 50. Panthers TE: Jeff King vs. Michael Gaines
The winner of this battle isn't going to get drafted in fantasy leagues, but don't dismiss their chances for relevance entirely. The Panthers offense under Dan Henning required blocking from their tight ends and got it in spades from recently retired tight end Kris Mangum.
But Henning was fired and the new coordinator Jeff Davidson comes from the New England school of spreading the wealth. Davidson has been a tight ends coach in the past (for Ben Coates) and helped Kellen Winslow to an excellent season in Cleveland last year.
Davidson doesn't have that kind of talent to work with in Carolina. Gaines is more of a Daniel Graham-type at best, a blocker first. He's 280 pounds. King has a chance to catch some passes, though, if he can earn enough playing time. The Rock Hill Herald thinks he may start. He has decent hands and is someone to watch in deep dynasty leagues if he can win this battle.
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