Nobody asked, but here’s how I’d define what qualifies as “big fantasy football news” from now until Week 1: If the news forces me to change Rotoworld’s player projections for 2007, then it’s big news. If not, it’s just another piece of information to squirrel away in your noggin until draft day.

Jon Gruden’s decisive announcement regarding Jeff Garcia as his starting quarterback last weekend qualifies as big news. In the first of what will be a running segment on the blog, let’s talk about how this news affects our projections and strategy heading into the season.

I’m a Chris Simms apologist. Or at least a true Jon Gruden believer. After he turned journeymen Rich Gannon, Brad Johnson, and Brian Griese into undervalued fantasy quarterbacks in the span of five years, I saw Simms as a nice QB2 (backup quarterback) pick in fantasy leagues last season. He tanked. There are a lot of excuses to make, but Simms played with no confidence. It’s a bad sign when your best performance comes in a game where you ruptured your spleen. (No one said he wasn’t tough)

Going into the offseason, I thought Simms had a legitimate chance to start in Week 1. I thought Gruden would watch tapes of Jeff Garcia’s disastrous runs in Detroit and Cleveland and wonder what he’d look like behind the Tampa line. I didn’t think Simms would finish the season as the starter, but that he would get a chance. That led to original projections where Simms and Garcia canceled each other out. Unless you played in a deep league where you could afford to carry three quarterbacks, it didn’t appear that it would be worth drafting a Tampa quarterback.

Gruden’s announcement changes that. The strong language Gruden used to describe the gap between Garcia and Simms in addition to the mechanical struggles Florio and PewterReport have written about puts Simms in his place. He has no chance to start in 2007 barring injury or a complete meltdown by Garcia.

Considering Tampa’s unsettled line and Garcia’s recent history, injury or poor play are quite possible. That’s why I’m projecting 13 starts for Garcia and 3 for Simms.

So how will Garcia do?

Historically, Gruden doesn’t call as many pass plays as Andy Reid, but he should be above average. I expect this year to be pass-heavy with Garcia at the helm: around 540 attempts. That leaves 400 for Garcia – enough to matter.

Look for Garcia’s YPA (yards-per-attempt) and completion percentage to drop below his Philadelphia numbers down to 6.8 and 59%. The Tampa offense has a questionable line, but a better group of skill position talent than Garcia’s stops in Cleveland and Detroit.

Garcia’s always-solid rushing stats put him over the top as a draftable player. 160 yards and a rushing score in 13 games is conservative, even at Garcia’s age. The Gruden factor keeps me optimistic that the Bucs offense can rebound their scoring to average if Cadillac Williams and Michael Clayton find a pulse. Maurice Stovall provides receiver depth and the tight end position is stronger with Alex Smith and Jerramy Stevens. With all that taken into account, 15 touchdowns and 11 interceptions is a reasonable projection for Garcia. That leaves us with the following projection for Garcia.