Projecting Change: Brown, White, and Henry
Chris Brown’s return to the Titans makes a muddled situation in the Tennessee backfield … muddier. They are the only team in the league where any one of three players could start at running back in Week 1 – Brown, LenDale White, or Chris Henry. This is truly an open competition.
Make no mistake: Brown’s re-signing was necessitated by the slow development of Chris Henry and especially LenDale White. Both of the younger backs are under contract for at least three more years and fit the power-running ideal that Jeff Fisher has preferred since the days of Eddie George. Brown, an upright speedster, never fit the mold and the Titans probably expected to wave goodbye to him this summer. The young runners wouldn’t allow it.
White has obvious talent and looked solid on Sundays as a rookie, but he’s been hurt and overweight since the day he was drafted. Henry is a bigger mystery, a classic workout wonder who shot up the draft boards with a big NFL Combine performance and little production at Arizona. The little we’ve heard about Henry this spring has been negative. While most rookies are subjects of puff pieces and coaches praise at minicamps, Henry has noticeably failed to make an impact. He had a chance to seize control of the starting job with White on the sidelines and failed. Enter Brown.
Who is Chris Brown?
The veteran hasn’t been the same since suffering a turf toe injury midway through 2004. Brown burst on to the fantasy football scene that year with four 100-yard games in his first five starts on the strength of big plays. He only had two the rest of the season and zero since as a myriad of injuries, mostly to his toe, have slowed him down. Brown’s upright running style also makes him an easy target for defenses and unlikely to hold up as a primary runner for 16 games. I doubt Jeff Fisher plans to use him that way.
When re-doing my projections for the Titans, I see Brown settling into a backup/third-down role. His speed can provide a change-of-pace off the bench to the winner of the LenDale White-Chris Henry battle. If the youngsters struggle, the division of carries may look more like a committee, although Fisher has been reluctant to go that route in the past. He’s more likely to flip-flop primary backs depending on performance.
With our magazine going to print next week, that leaves my projection for Brown as the following.
RSH/YD/TD/REC/YD/TD
90/350/1/18/144/0
That doesn’t look like much, but it places Brown as our 58th ranked RB in standard scoring, and slightly higher in points-per-reception leagues. If you were drafting today, he should be one of the last running backs selected.
You probably don’t have to draft today. These Titans projections are going to change one way or another before Week 1. If Brown is immediately running with the first-team at minicamp, the projection may change tomorrow.
What about the young guys?
The Titans would love to be a run-heavy team. I have them slotted for 375 carries from their running backs. That leaves 285 for White and Henry. I currently have White slotted for 180 and Henry pegged at 105.
Despite all his problems, White is the best bet for fantasy value entering training camp. He has a year of experience on Henry and was productive in college. He looked like he belonged last season.
Here’s how their two projections look.
LenDale White
RSH/YD/TD/REC/YD/TD
180/775/6/22/140/0
Chris Henry
RSH/YD/TD/REC/YD/TD
110/455/4/10/81/0
We’re admittedly hedging our bets with this projection, but that’s what you have to do in mid-June. The situation is too uncertain and both runners may get a crack at the job. The addition of Chris Brown knocked White down in our rankings from 26th to 34th. I still see White as a high ceiling RB3 who could be undervalued in the middle rounds of drafts. If he enjoys a big training camp, this projection is going to rise and Henry’s will fall. I would rather gamble on a player like White with a chance to start than settle for a sure backup like Ladell Betts, Mike Bell, or Michael Turner.
Henry was bumped down from 46th to 48th in the rankings. He’s a boom or bust pick for the mid-to-late rounds in drafts that has extra value for White owners. My gut feeling is that I don't want Henry unless I take White. Draft them both, and you should have a solid reserve option every week. Stay away from the whole situation, and you can avoid following this mess all season.
Note: The new column is up. It looks at some early trends at running back during fantasy draft season. Thanks for stopping by.
Comments
I think White is going to do very well this year. I just traded for him in a dynasty league so I might be a bit biased. But I'm interested in what your projections will be if he doea take control of the starting job.
Posted by: J | June 19, 2007 04:04 PM
lendale white is fat and slow. not a good combo for a running back (unless they call you the bus).
i know it's early, but i think brown will be the main bread winner (if you can even call it that) in that backfield. making him a decent value pick... and tennessee will have to sit and wait until henry comes along and can bang the ball next year.
brown will get 200 touches, but will average less than 3.5 yards a carry. and will probably stub a toe somewhere along the way.
leaving him at home on the couch eating bon bons... exactly where lendale wants to be.
Posted by: Dibble | June 19, 2007 05:01 PM
I dont understand those of you that think Brown will start. He was third string last year behind White and now ya'll think he's gonna be better? And Henry sounds pathetic which leaves White the job. White also had more ypc (albeit in very few carries) last year than brown did either of the last two.
Posted by: J | June 19, 2007 05:18 PM
chris brown was NOT "third string last year behind White." he was hurt all last year... he had a nasty turf toe that kept him out most of the season.
that also spells to how fragile he is, but the last time he was healthy, 2005, he put up relatively good numbers. 224 carries for around 850 yards and 7 td's. now, those aren't pro bowl numbers, but he was, again, playing hurt most of the year. i think he had the toe issue that year but didn't take time to get it right till last year?
his best season, 2004, he carried the ball 220 times for just over 1,000 yards. an average of 4.85 ypc. 4.85!!! that is awesome.
bottom line is brown's been there, he knows the offense and he's proven he can be a good stop gap while they try to get chris henry out.
as a loyal lion fan, i've seen the writing on lendale white's wall and his name was mike williams. my guess is lendale doesn't care about his career and he'll be off the titans in the next 2 years. they'll tire of his lack of work ethic and general malaise toward the team.
i know you just traded for him, and sorry to be bursting your bubble... but you really never know what'll happen. these are just my thoughts based on the facts and what i think.
Posted by: Dibble | June 20, 2007 08:46 AM
I feel like we're hijaking Greg's post haha.
Brown really wasn't hurt all last season. He practiced fully most of the season. He was demoted to third string most of the season. He was even inactive for at least one of the games even while he was healthy. He asked to be traded in the middle of the year. I actually have Chris Brown on the team as well (didn't draft chris henry cause I think he is horrible) so if he started I really wouldn't be upset.
Posted by: j | June 20, 2007 09:04 AM
Hijack away! As for Brown ... one thing he's got going for him I didn't really talk about, the same thing Travis Henry had last year...
He knows this could be his last shot to make a good career. Henry took advantage. A year ago, he was not looking like a guy with a future. one good year and he got paid huge.
Brown has to be the most motivated. I dont trust him to stay healthy really but he's more of a 'pro' than the other two.
Posted by: gregg | June 20, 2007 11:04 AM
LenDale White -- fat and slow? That's what the L.A. Rams thought of a certain 1st-round RB back in the early nineties.
They traded him to Pittsburgh for next to nothing, one of the biggest steals in NFL history.
His name? Jermome Bettis. Don't give up on LenWhale, err -- LenDale White too quickly, folks.
Posted by: TommyD | June 20, 2007 12:25 PM