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Mailbag: The Effect of RB Committees

Joe Stoffel asks ...

With all the rumblings about how teams are going to moving to the dual back strategy in the NFL, how should this affect a draft strategy? So instead of the status quo "RB in the first two rounds", should we be drafting an elite RB in round one then going elite WR in round two and avoid wasting the high round pick on the number 1 of a dual back system?

Great question. There is a lot of concern out there about this subject and I'll try to write a column about it. First of all, I'm not necessarily sure that there is that many more running back committees now than usual. It seems more like a reversal to norm in NFL history after a growth of 400-touch monsters over the last five years. Of course those five years are when fantasy football exploded.

With that said, it certainly seems to be that running back depth is better than usual this year. No one from Oakland, Green Bay, and Tennesee are going in the top 50-60 picks. Committee partners like Julius Jones and DeShaun Foster are slipping out of the first 6-7 rounds.

After the top 16 running backs or so, they are all close in value. I absolutely think that makes wide receivers better picks overall in the first three rounds. I also think plenty of WR2s are better bets than the RB3 types that often go in rounds 4-5. If you can get your running back depth late, get your wide receiver starters early. So if you have say, a top-five pick, the running backs available at the end of round two may be poor bets.

The trick is deciding where your cut off is. Yesterday, I had a draft where I had the 11 pick. I took Reggie Bush. For the second round pick, I could choose either Chad Johnson (my top wideout) or choose between Ronnie Brown/Willis McGahee. If Johnson was gone, I probably would have gone running back over my No. 2 WR. I wouldn't necessarily make that choice in every league I'm in or if money was on the line. But I like to try different strategies with these industry drafts so I can write about it.

I felt that the running back depth would be sufficient enough to get a great wideout in that spot. I ended up with Carnell Williams/Julius Jones/Brandon Jackson being my RB2/3/4. Williams is the key. I wound up with Chad Johnson/Marques Colston/Jerricho Cotchery/Ronald Curry being my top four receivers. That's pretty sweet.

Continuing on our theme, Ben Tsujimoto writes

Which of the following is more valuable- a more talented running back in a time-share (MJD or Adrian Peterson or Marion Barber), or a less-talented running back who is the sole ball-carrier (Ahman Green, Thomas Jones)?

It depends on the runners involved of course. MJD is the most valuable runner in a time share other than Reggie Bush. In this case, I would take him just barely over Thomas Jones. Jones is solid enough that he'd get my nod over Peterson and Barber who are in a time share.

Ahman Green is a special case. I think he's a candidate to be a huge bust this season. If the sole ball-carrier is young, then, he usually will get the nod.

***

I need to race out of here and catch a plane to New Orleans, probably my favorite place in the world. Getting together with college friends (went to Tulane) for a bachelor party, so it's going to be all kinds of ugly. Our second magazine will go to the printer Monday and be available in late July. I think it's our best one yet, though I always like to see it finished first. Our first magazine is on newstands now. Thanks for stopping by all week.

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