June 21, 2007
Can Clayton stop his decline?
Enough with the David Boston stories already. We read the same articles this time a year ago and he didn't even make the Bucs. Perhaps he could be a fourth receiver this season, but this is a guy with four catches in the last four years. It's hard to imagine him dominating like the old days.
The Bucs receiver to watch is Maurice Stovall. Judging by Jon Gruden's comment's, old Rotoworld favorite Michael Clayton is in trouble. Stovall and Clayton are both big, physical receivers who will play the crucial flanker spot in Tampa's offense. Watching Stovall's brief appearances last year, the kid almost looked too big, too upright running down the field.
But he's reportedly a hard worker, has great hands, and Clayton seems to have lost his mojo. Stovall would make a great red zone target for Jeff Garcia. I'm not giving up on Clayton yet - we've been through too much. His 2004 rookie season is right there with Anquan Boldin and Marques Colston as the most impressive first year receiver seasons of the decade. Whoever wins the Tampa starting job is going to be one of my favorite late-round receiver picks. Stovall looks like even money at this point.
***
* Watch out Hashmarks, competition is on the way. ESPN hired Mike Sando of the News Tribune and Seahawks Insider to join the Worldwide Leader. Great, great, hire. Assuming they let him blog, Sando is going to provide the newsblog that the NFL is sorely lacking. Unless you count our news page.
* Look, Kyle Orton won a competition!
* Heading back home. Taped a Fantasy Fix that will be posted shortly. See ya Friday.
Veteran holdouts are overrated. They get maximum media coverage and rarely affect what happens on Sundays. That probably won’t stop fantasy owners from freaking out Thursday following Larry Johnson’s statements that he’s prepared to hold out of training camp.
So does this impact L.J.’s fantasy value?
The short answer: Not yet. If Vegas were setting odds on Kansas City’s Week 1 starter at running back, Johnson would still be a 1:5 favorite. (Don't ask how I came up with that). He could skip the entire training camp and preseason, and it still probably wouldn’t affect his output. After 416 carries last season, any extra rest might be a plus. There’s a reason LaDainian Tomlinson practically sits out of football activities until September.
There is a slight risk that Johnson could sit out regular season games, and that’s because the Chiefs may be unwilling to give him big dollars. Johnson is known as a mercurial sort in the locker room, and Kansas City dangled him in trade talks before the NFL Draft. He is scheduled to make “only” $1.8 million in 2007 and smartly realizes this is the time to cash in. Before he breaks down.
Johnson has touched the ball 655 times in his last 25 games and he will be lucky to survive this season without getting hurt. The Chiefs’ overuse of Johnson is one of the factors that will be used against him in contract negotiations. It would hurt him on the open market. His poor blocking skills won’t do him any favors either.
The key for Johnson will be accepting that he’s not going to make LaDainian Tomlinson money. He will be lucky to get more than Frank Gore’s four-year, $28 million extension signed earlier this summer. There is also the possibility of a trade and signing like Deion Branch last year, but that shouldn't be a concern for fantasy leaguers. Almost any destination would probably help Johnson’s fantasy value, not hurt it.
The Chiefs hold almost all the cards here, and that’s why Johnson practically has to hold out as a negotiating ploy. Chiefs GM Carl Peterson is notoriously stingy. Surely he will point out that the Chiefs could easily retain Johnson’s services for the next 2-3 years by letting his contract play out and using the franchise tag. By 2009, the Chiefs will probably have used up the peak of Johnson’s career. Johnson is in a tough spot, and a “below-market” deal might still be his best chance to maximize dollars.
How does this affect the rest of the Chiefs?
One of our frequent commenters' “Dibble” asked Thursday whether this news raises rookie Kolby Smith’s value. As a dynasty league owner of Smith, I’d like to think so. But any bump is marginal. A holdout will give Smith extra time in training camp to prove that life after LJ in Kansas City will be fine. Perhaps a great month could help push the Chiefs to a trade, but I don’t see a match outside of Green Bay right now. And I don't see the Chiefs giving up on their best player so fast.
Smith still has to worry about beating out veteran Michael Bennett for the backup job. Both K.C. backups are squarely on the fantasy radar as fun late-round picks and possible handcuffs for Larry Johnson owners. But Herm Edwards does not want to go into Week 1 with a Smith/Bennett committee. And he probably won’t. Larry Johnson is the Kansas City offense presently and any missed time could grind the team to a halt.
There are a lot of reasons to be wary of Johnson as a top-five pick this season. His overuse last season was historical and he’s at risk of breaking down. His offensive line is a shell of what it used to be. Brodie Croyle will likely be starting his first NFL games. For Johnson’s fantasy owners, this holdout should be the least of their concerns.
June 20, 2007
You know the news cycle is slowing down when I feel it necessary to include an NFL Europa update in the morning news. The time of year is one reason why I've always thought the upcoming supplemental draft is a great deal for the players in it.
If Georgia CB Paul Oliver came out for the April draft, he'd just be another guy. Now I'm reading a feature-length column about him every day. Same thing happened with Ahmad Brooks, Manny Wright, Tony Hollings, and all the other recent supplemental picks.
The Boston Herald thinks the Patriots could be a fit because they have an extra third-round pick. I agree. New England only used one first-day pick this year and are not afraid to develop a guy. They don't usually go for big cornerbacks like Oliver, but someone will in the first three rounds. Oliver runs his forty today and practically every NFL team will be watching.
* The most interesting article from a fantasy football perspective today was the Kansas City Star article on Brodie Croyle. I wrote in our magazine that it's only a matter of time until Broyle takes over. It looks like the time will start in training camp.
As someone who thought Damon Huard was headed for the Pro Bowl last year, it's hard to accept that Croyle is a better choice to win games in the short-term. But Herm Edwards is clearly thinking about the future with a suddenly young roster. I've written about the subject quite a bit this offseason. Larry Johnson and Tony Gonzalez owners can't be excited about this development.
No more handoffs for Huard?
I still wouldn't assume Croyle will be the guy just yet. He has to look competent in the preseason. It's hard to forget his ugly performances during game action last year. He was 6-of-18 for 59 yards and a pick in the preseason. He was 3-of-7 with two interceptions in his brief regular season effort. Huard threw eleven touchdowns and one interception in eight starts.
How can the Chiefs feel completely comfortable with Croyle taking over until he shows something when the bullets are live? He's one of the key players to watch in August.
* Training camp reporting dates are rolling in. July 27th is roughly when my wife will start disliking my job this year.
* I always thought the complaints about Dan Henning's predictability were over-the-top. Perhaps the fans were right on this one. Or perhaps everyone is just bitching about the old coach when the new coach shows up, as usual.
* Sobering days for dynasty league owners like myself who have hung on to Chris Simms. He's behind Bruce Gradkowski now. I suspect Simms will get at least one more chance to win a starting job in his career, but it probably won't be in Tampa.
* His teammate Barrett Ruud is someone to target in shallow IDP leagues. Middle linebacker in a Monte Kiffin defense is a nice place to be.
* The British irrationally root for David Martin as much as Rotoworld does.
June 19, 2007
Chris Brown’s return to the Titans makes a muddled situation in the Tennessee backfield … muddier. They are the only team in the league where any one of three players could start at running back in Week 1 – Brown, LenDale White, or Chris Henry. This is truly an open competition.
Make no mistake: Brown’s re-signing was necessitated by the slow development of Chris Henry and especially LenDale White. Both of the younger backs are under contract for at least three more years and fit the power-running ideal that Jeff Fisher has preferred since the days of Eddie George. Brown, an upright speedster, never fit the mold and the Titans probably expected to wave goodbye to him this summer. The young runners wouldn’t allow it.
White has obvious talent and looked solid on Sundays as a rookie, but he’s been hurt and overweight since the day he was drafted. Henry is a bigger mystery, a classic workout wonder who shot up the draft boards with a big NFL Combine performance and little production at Arizona. The little we’ve heard about Henry this spring has been negative. While most rookies are subjects of puff pieces and coaches praise at minicamps, Henry has noticeably failed to make an impact. He had a chance to seize control of the starting job with White on the sidelines and failed. Enter Brown.
Who is Chris Brown?
The veteran hasn’t been the same since suffering a turf toe injury midway through 2004. Brown burst on to the fantasy football scene that year with four 100-yard games in his first five starts on the strength of big plays. He only had two the rest of the season and zero since as a myriad of injuries, mostly to his toe, have slowed him down. Brown’s upright running style also makes him an easy target for defenses and unlikely to hold up as a primary runner for 16 games. I doubt Jeff Fisher plans to use him that way.
When re-doing my projections for the Titans, I see Brown settling into a backup/third-down role. His speed can provide a change-of-pace off the bench to the winner of the LenDale White-Chris Henry battle. If the youngsters struggle, the division of carries may look more like a committee, although Fisher has been reluctant to go that route in the past. He’s more likely to flip-flop primary backs depending on performance.
With our magazine going to print next week, that leaves my projection for Brown as the following.
RSH/YD/TD/REC/YD/TD
90/350/1/18/144/0
That doesn’t look like much, but it places Brown as our 58th ranked RB in standard scoring, and slightly higher in points-per-reception leagues. If you were drafting today, he should be one of the last running backs selected.
You probably don’t have to draft today. These Titans projections are going to change one way or another before Week 1. If Brown is immediately running with the first-team at minicamp, the projection may change tomorrow.
What about the young guys?
The Titans would love to be a run-heavy team. I have them slotted for 375 carries from their running backs. That leaves 285 for White and Henry. I currently have White slotted for 180 and Henry pegged at 105.
Despite all his problems, White is the best bet for fantasy value entering training camp. He has a year of experience on Henry and was productive in college. He looked like he belonged last season.
Continue reading "Projecting Change: Brown, White, and Henry" »
June 18, 2007
The Redskins and Jets wrapped up minicamp this weekend before breaking for the summer and both squads are excited about their quarterbacks. Chad Pennington isn't recovering from shoulder surgery for the first time in years. The Redskins can't stop gushing about Jason Campbell's work ethic and development. Combined with Al Saunders' track record, I can almost forget that Campbell made Eli Manning look precise in comparison last year. I still like Campbell as a high ceiling QB2 because of his job security and running ability. He may not even get drafted in some leagues.
The other consistent theme emanating from Washington is that Rocky McIntosh is now the key man in their linebacker unit. Coming off a lost rookie year, there may not be a better value pick in IDP leagues. The entire Redskins defense has room to improve, and the Washington Post has a nice x's and o's breakdown of some of the changes that will take place.
Clinton Portis worked more at the minicamp than expected. If healthy, Portis is going to get the majority of carries over Ladell Betts. But Betts proved he's a No.1 caliber back last year and Washington will keep him involved. Look for Portis' receiving numbers to suffer, but he can still approach 300 carries.
That makes Betts very difficult to evaluate this season. Like Chester Taylor and Marion Barber (and Maurice Jones-Drew to a lesser extent), he's a talented player coming off a big season. But he's a backup and fantasy owners are currently taking him as a mid-round (8th) pick. If Portis gets hurt, that's a good value. If Portis plays 16 games, that's way too high. I love Betts as a player, but I doubt I'll own him much this year.
***
The Jets offense is largely set (unless they trade Justin McCareins). I didn't learn much from Jets minicamp other than Thomas Jones has big muscles, Pete Kendall is unhappy, and Kellen Clemens isn't playing very well. The last item is the only one with fantasy football significance. Clemens could have challenged Chad Pennington with a huge offseason. At worst, he could have been a good option if Pennington struggles. For now, it appears he's struggling just to hold off Marques Tuiasosopo for the backup job.
By my highly unofficial count, 29 of the 32 teams have ceased football activities until training camp. Tampa Bay and Atlanta have minicamps this week, while Denver does their annual "Mike Shanahan must really hate us" mid-July get together. Our news page will slow to a crawl until late July aside from PacMan Jones' latest legal problems. Stories like Tommie Harris unintentionally dissing Rex Grossman will make the papers.
We'll switch gears slightly here from news analysis to 2007 fantasy draft analysis. I've been writing player outlooks since March, so I'm ready to get to the good stuff.
June 15, 2007
Busy editing the magazine today, a refrain that may be too common around here over the next two weeks. So let's go straight to the links. (Notice I'm using a * instead of bullet because the PFT Fantasy Mill doesn't like my html.
Wilford a starter again?
* Jack Del Rio lays down the gauntlet to Reggie Williams and Matt Jones. We've written about Jones before this summer, but it appears neither player will be a "starter" to open training camp.
That leaves Ernest Wilford and Dennis Northcutt, with super sleeper Mike Walker waiting in the wings. Someone named Charles Sharon is also in the mix. The news is a concern for anyone interested in drafting a Jaguar receiver, especially Jones. Jack Del Rio is probably trying to motivate the group, but he knows it's a do-or-die season. Donovin Darius' release may be a wake up call. One note of caution: All we heard about last summer was about Wilford, and he was behind Reggie Williams once camp got going.
* As a depressed dynasty league owner of Eric Shelton the last two years, I'll attach myself to any sliver of good news possible. Perhaps the dismissal of Dan Henning will help, but I'm not convinced he was somehow in the doghouse by mistake.
If Shelton could help the Panthers win, he'd be playing. Perhaps a release and a reuniting with Bobby Petrino in Atlanta would help him. Kudos to David Warner, who wrote the piece over at AOL Fanhouse for educating the masses on all kinds of football this summer on his blog.
* Mike Tomlin pencils in his starters. It's surprising Anthony Smith and Bryant McFadden are on the bench, at least for now. Ike Taylor is safely out of the doghouse.
* Thursday was Vernand Morency day in the local Green Bay papers. My gut tells me Morency will split carries with Brandon Jackson at best, but these pieces suggest otherwise.
* Wanted to talk at length all week about Michael Felger's article on Randy Moss. First, it's a huge loss for Patriots fans now that Felger is no longer on staff at the Herald. Hopefully he continues to pen pieces like this when he has time. Second, this is such a great example of how different writers can get drastically different impressions from offseason practices. Peter King was gushing about Moss in Sports Illustrated. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle, but Felger has been right about an awful lot over the years.
For the record, I don't really care how well Randy Moss practices in June if he's not a "distraction." I just hope he has juice left in his legs on Sundays.
* Paul Zimmerman writes that Tom Brady was "furious" about his lack of receivers last offseason - off the record. Thanks to Florio's excellent new vice Poohbah Michael David Smith for catching this.
* Minicamp season is just about wrapping up. Some places with good coverage this weekend to check out...
* The Newark Star Ledger on the Giants
* Redskins Insider, which has a painful sounding account of LaRon Landry's "groin contusion." Maybe Paintball should be played with a cup.
* Seahawks Insider wraps up the recent minicamp in Seattle.
June 14, 2007
Maybe the Seahawks knew what they were doing when they dealt Darrell Jackson. Forget about all the drops and the lax practice habits, at least Jackson was statistically as consistent as any receiver in the league.
We are now seven months removed from his turf toe injury, and Jackson still can't do anything. He hasn't run a route all summer for his new squad. The always excellent Matt Maiocco reports that Jackson isn't close to 100%. "I feel it," Jackson said. "I always feel it."
Jackson has missed 13 games over the last two seasons. He's practiced so little over the last year that he risks another injury if and when his toe does heal. I originally projected him for 72 catches, 1045 yards, and seven touchdowns for 2007 in an improving San Francisco offense, primarily because the rest of their receivers are terrible. That put him at WR24, which I thought was conservative. But that projection looks too generous now.
The current questions surrounding Jackson's health will knock our projections down to 64/928/6 heading into camp. We'll give a few more catches to Arnaz Battle and Jason Hill. That makes Jackson our No. 29-ranked wideout, a boom-or-bust pick as your third wide receiver. It's hard to believe Jackson has fallen so far, but I just don't trust him to stay healthy. The team change is also a negative. I'm open to moving Jackson back up if he starts practicing well in training camp. It's more likely that his freefall will continue after more injury news.
* Here's our Fantasy Fix video for the week, complete with a new set. And some police blotter action.
* Varying levels of receiver sleepers making noise. Jaguars rookie Mike Walker looks like a long-term keeper. Ronald Curry is making spectacular grabs once again. I love Curry as a WR3 this year if JaMarcus Russell can manage to be competent.
* PacifistViking is running fantasy football previews. I'm new to the site, but the writing is high quality. No love for Jerricho Cotchery, though.
A day after I wrote about him, Derek Anderson fever is sweeping across Berea, Ohio.
Patrick McManamon writes that Charlie Frye may no longer be the favorite for the starting job. Even Frye isn't sure if the job is his.
"We'll find out,'' he said.
Thursday afternoon, Tony Grossi of the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports that Anderson took first-team snaps to wrap up the minicamp. Grossi says Anderson was "clearly the most impressive" of the three quarterbacks over the last month. I know it's hard to judge minicamp season, but I might try to watch NFL Network's Inside Minicamp on the Browns to see for myself.
Of course none of them have impressed too much in Rob Chudzinkski's complex new offense. Coach Crennel was so upset that he had the offense run four gassers before Anderson finished off minicamp with the first team. The chances are looking better that Anderson will be there again next month. I'm tempted to project some starts for Anderson in our next magazine. In deep keeper fantasy leagues where all starting quarterbacks have value, it's time to take a shot on him.
* I'm up at NBC in Stamford today and will try to post some links here before leaving if I can finish my magazine work. Stay tuned to the player news in the meantime and a pair of Fantasy Fix videos posting later today.
June 13, 2007
Frye on the run
Most of the focus on the Browns quarterback situation has focused on Brady Quinn, which isn't a surprise. The main question has been when he'll pass Charlie Frye on the depth chart rather than if. With Quinn struggling to adapt to a new offense and a holdout looming, Frye should be a lot more concerned with another quarterback on the roster. Not Ken Dorsey.
Derek Anderson played in four games last season. Three of them were unqualified successes for a first-time starter. He was hurt in the other one.
* In his first appearance, he came off the bench to lead the Browns to one of the best comeback victories in the league all season, a 31-28 win over Kansas City.
* In his second start, he threw for 276 yards with one score and a pick in a loss at Pittsburgh.
* His next start included 223 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions at Baltimore. He had the Browns in a tie game midway through the third quarter.
* Anderson's final start included four interceptions against the Bucs as he tried to play through a seperated shoulder.
I came away from those efforts shocked about how competent Anderson looked. He was known for his big arm, but he couldn't even stay on Baltimore's active roster as a rookie. He certainly outlplayed Charlie Frye last year and it's hard to fault Anderson for a game he played through a serious shoulder injury.
Continue reading "Why not Derek Anderson?" »
Nobody asked, but here’s how I’d define what qualifies as “big fantasy football news” from now until Week 1: If the news forces me to change Rotoworld’s player projections for 2007, then it’s big news. If not, it’s just another piece of information to squirrel away in your noggin until draft day.
Jon Gruden’s decisive announcement regarding Jeff Garcia as his starting quarterback last weekend qualifies as big news. In the first of what will be a running segment on the blog, let’s talk about how this news affects our projections and strategy heading into the season.
I’m a Chris Simms apologist. Or at least a true Jon Gruden believer. After he turned journeymen Rich Gannon, Brad Johnson, and Brian Griese into undervalued fantasy quarterbacks in the span of five years, I saw Simms as a nice QB2 (backup quarterback) pick in fantasy leagues last season. He tanked. There are a lot of excuses to make, but Simms played with no confidence. It’s a bad sign when your best performance comes in a game where you ruptured your spleen. (No one said he wasn’t tough)
Going into the offseason, I thought Simms had a legitimate chance to start in Week 1. I thought Gruden would watch tapes of Jeff Garcia’s disastrous runs in Detroit and Cleveland and wonder what he’d look like behind the Tampa line. I didn’t think Simms would finish the season as the starter, but that he would get a chance. That led to original projections where Simms and Garcia canceled each other out. Unless you played in a deep league where you could afford to carry three quarterbacks, it didn’t appear that it would be worth drafting a Tampa quarterback.
Gruden’s announcement changes that. The strong language Gruden used to describe the gap between Garcia and Simms in addition to the mechanical struggles Florio and PewterReport have written about puts Simms in his place. He has no chance to start in 2007 barring injury or a complete meltdown by Garcia.
Considering Tampa’s unsettled line and Garcia’s recent history, injury or poor play are quite possible. That’s why I’m projecting 13 starts for Garcia and 3 for Simms.
So how will Garcia do?
Historically, Gruden doesn’t call as many pass plays as Andy Reid, but he should be above average. I expect this year to be pass-heavy with Garcia at the helm: around 540 attempts. That leaves 400 for Garcia – enough to matter.
Look for Garcia’s YPA (yards-per-attempt) and completion percentage to drop below his Philadelphia numbers down to 6.8 and 59%. The Tampa offense has a questionable line, but a better group of skill position talent than Garcia’s stops in Cleveland and Detroit.
Garcia’s always-solid rushing stats put him over the top as a draftable player. 160 yards and a rushing score in 13 games is conservative, even at Garcia’s age. The Gruden factor keeps me optimistic that the Bucs offense can rebound their scoring to average if Cadillac Williams and Michael Clayton find a pulse. Maurice Stovall provides receiver depth and the tight end position is stronger with Alex Smith and Jerramy Stevens. With all that taken into account, 15 touchdowns and 11 interceptions is a reasonable projection for Garcia. That leaves us with the following projection for Garcia.
Continue reading "Projecting Change: Garcia and Simms" »
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