Must stick to board. I had Brown tenth in PPR leagues and went with him. Early surprises ...
Travis Henry at tenth in this format. Edgerrin James in the late second round, Marshawn Lynch in the mid-third. Javon Walker in the top 30. This is a great group of site owners mostly.
I realized there is no way to look for advice, so I'll just chime in with how it's going occasionally. The limit to the picks is 60 seconds and most people aren't waiting that room. We are working after all. My gambit on Brown paid off because I still had the choice of Anquan Boldin or Andre Johnson in the third round, not that huge a step down from Wayne/Holt. I hope.
Big Run on receivers after me. Plenty of quality running backs slipping. Only Manning off the board as a QB in the first three rounds.
Looks like my pick will be either Ronnie Brown, Reggie Wayne, or Torry Holt. I was ready to go for a wideout, but Brown gets extra points in PPR leagues. Tough call.
One of the defining features/questions of every draft is whether you take a wideout or a running back in the second round. This season, I think presents a better year than most to take a top receiver. There is a cut-off in the running backs somewhere after the top 12-15 when it's worth it. My cut off is around my RBs that are ranked 12-14: Travis Henry, Ronnie Brown, Willis McGahee.
Basically, do you want to take sure things like Torry Holt, Reggie Wayne, and Larry Fitzgerald or cloudy situations like Clinton Portis, Cedric Benson, Carnell Williams.
In this format, which awards points-per-reception, I think I'm going to be into my wide receivers with the No. 18 pick. We'll see. Draft is being held up right now. I really should be editing our magazine, yet I'm doing a draft. And blogging about it!
Dang, got so busy setting our rankings, the draft is started already. I have the seventh pick, .5 PPR for RBs, PPR for WRs, TEs league.
So I had the seventh pick. LT2, Steven Jackson, Alexander, LJ, Gore, Westbrook went ahead of me.
My board had Addai, then Bush. Nice spot to be. I stayed with the board. The Alexander pick IMO is a huge mistake in this scoring system. The real question now is... do I take another RB with my second-round pick or go for a receiver?
Hello from rainy Dallas.
Nothing gets your morning going like trying to decide if your WR 19 (Brett Favre) is more valuable than your WR45 (Eddie Kennison) or your RB43 (Tatum Bell). I've spent the last two hours setting our final final final top 200 rankings lists this morning for our magazine, an exercise that always hurts my brain.
After rocking my Ford Taurus and Wendy's Frescuit (not terrible) on the way in to our publisher's headquarters, I will be knee deep in magazine work until my 1PM fantasy industry draft. I will attempt to liveblog the proceedings right here. It's against some of the best names in the business, so check back with me then and we'll see if this exercise is worth doing again in the future.
June 26, 2007
Just arrived to Beckett's in Dallas and excited to see how the magazine is turning out. I loved our latest cover (there's a link for the new magazine for those who asked), but we're going back to a look closer to our baseball magazine for this one.
So it's still up for debate. Who makes the cover? I want Frank Gore, but I'm getting vetoed. Some other options: Reggie Bush, Carson Palmer, Chad Johnson, Steven Jackson. What do you guys think?
(And for those on the Fantasy Mill, I'm not just asking rhetorically. The Rotoworld version of the blog has comments. You can also email me.
I'm heading out the door this morning for Dallas, where Beckett's Publishing (yep, the Card price guide one) and I will finish off our second magazine of the season by Friday. So speak now if you didn't like anything from the first one, including LaMont Jordan's ranking.
I will still be blogging from Dallas and should post something here tonight. In the meantime, the new column is up. So is the latest Fantasy Fix baseball video.
With all the final magazines getting prepped before training camp, it's a popular time for the old "Industry" (Expert) league draft. I have two this week - one for NFL.com and one for Krause Publications. I thought it might be fun to do some liveblogging of the proceedings, especially concerning my picks. Get a little reader input into who I should draft. Not that I'll necessarily listen.
If anyone is interested, the first draft is at 1PM EST on Wednesday, so stop by then. The second one is Thursday at 5PM, but first we'll see if this is worth doing again.
June 25, 2007
Who will Smith throw to?
Matt Maiocco's recent post on how the new 49ers are looking is worth a read.
Maiocco writes that Ashley Lelie has run a handful of routes this summer, and has hurt his quad on two of them. He entered the offseason as the favorite to start at split end. While most of Fantasy Nation despises Lelie, we thought the man with a career 17.5 yard-per-catch average could eke out some sneaky late-round value in San Francisco.
Now we're not so sure. If Lelie can't get healthy, the 49ers are thinking about putting Arnaz Battle as the starting flanker and moving Darrell Jackson to split end. Jackson also hasn't been able to practice all summer and switching positions could further damage his value. Battle is a hard-nosed player, a solid pro, but he probably maxed out his fantasy upside last year with 686 yards and three touchdowns. Nothing worth getting excited about.
I've downgraded Lelie because of the news to 36 catches, 610 yards, and two touchdowns, which leaves him ranked as the WR69. He could get a bump if he looks strong in camp, but he's currently a sixth-receiver type if you play in a deep league. I gave Battle some of Lelie's production, but that only moved him up to WR80. Lelie should still make more big plays.
Ultimately, it looks like Battle, Lelie, and fourth receiver rookie Jason Hill will cancel each other out. The number one wideout, Darrell Jackson, is a mystery. The 49ers are riding a wave of good publicity as a team, but their receiver group still could border on irrelevance in fantasy leagues.
June 22, 2007
LenDale has company
The Titans and Bucs wrapped up their minicamp season this week, leaving only the Broncos with any on-field work left before training camp. Here's what I took from Tennessee's session.
The Titans will open training camp not knowing their starters at running back, wide receiver and tight end. Let's look quickly at where each position stands.
1. Running Back - LenDale White, Chris Brown, Chris Henry, and Quinton Ganther
I still think White is the favorite to start, but it's clear Brown will have every opportunity to enjoy a major role. My guess is that Brown starts the season behind the best young player, probably White. As our new writer Brian Flood wrote, the backup in Tennessee is probably the best fantasy bet because he'll be cheap.
2. Wide Receiver - Brandon Jones, Courtney Roby, Roydell Williams, Paul Williams, Justin Gage, David Givens
Givens could start the year on the PUP list and possibly may miss the season. Jones has a starting job locked up, but reportedly hasn't had a great summer. He's still a fine prospect and a nice sleeper pick. We have no idea how the rest of this group will shake out and we're not sure it will matter for most fantasy leaguers. The coaching staff doesn't seem to know yet if anyone here will step up.
3. Tight End - Bo Scaife, Ben Hartsock, Ben Troupe - It looks like Hartsock will improbably start for the Titans because of his blocking skills. He still has no fantasy value. That leaves Scaife and Troupe to battle for the "pass-catching" tight end job in the offense. There is some potential for the winner of that battle for be a quality TE2.
All of this uncertainty is rough news for the development of Vince Young this season.
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My wife's birthday takes center stage this weekend, and I'm also preparing to head to Dallas next week to put our second magazine to bed. Thanks for stopping by and making this a record week of traffic on the blog. See you Monday.
The second part of Jason Whitlock's interview with Larry Johnson is an interesting read. Johnson has been a pain for some coaches, but it's clear he's a bright guy.
Whitlock writes about Kansas City's decision to dangle Johnson on the trade market and reveals something I don't remember seeing before. The Packers had the greatest interest in Johnson (which we knew), but weren't willing to give up Kansas City's asking price. The price? Their first-, second-, and third-round picks in April.
Well, of course a rebuilding team like the Packers aren't going to trade their entire first day of the draft for one running back. I doubt any NFL team would in these enlightened times, where draft picks are appropriately treated as gold. Thomas Jones was traded simply for a move up in the second round. The Ravens gave up two thirds and a seventh for Willis McGahee. (And I didn't even think that was a good deal for Baltimore.)
Carl Peterson knows the Packers weren't going to make that trade. And there's certainly no team out there right now who could make such an offer. I think he dangled Johnson to let him know that no one is irreplaceable. It was a negotiating move, and a fine one. But it also indicates that the Chiefs aren't that interested in losing Johnson. They want to make a deal, just their deal. The Kansas City Star says as much Friday. And that's why I think the Chiefs and Johnson will come to an agreement, whether it's in late July or late August. Both sides have too much to lose for any other outcome.
* Tom Curran and I talked about LJ and more in this week's Fantasy Fix.
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