Impact: Larry Johnson threatens to hold out
Veteran holdouts are overrated. They get maximum media coverage and rarely affect what happens on Sundays. That probably won’t stop fantasy owners from freaking out Thursday following Larry Johnson’s statements that he’s prepared to hold out of training camp.
So does this impact L.J.’s fantasy value?
The short answer: Not yet. If Vegas were setting odds on Kansas City’s Week 1 starter at running back, Johnson would still be a 1:5 favorite. (Don't ask how I came up with that). He could skip the entire training camp and preseason, and it still probably wouldn’t affect his output. After 416 carries last season, any extra rest might be a plus. There’s a reason LaDainian Tomlinson practically sits out of football activities until September.
There is a slight risk that Johnson could sit out regular season games, and that’s because the Chiefs may be unwilling to give him big dollars. Johnson is known as a mercurial sort in the locker room, and Kansas City dangled him in trade talks before the NFL Draft. He is scheduled to make “only” $1.8 million in 2007 and smartly realizes this is the time to cash in. Before he breaks down.
Johnson has touched the ball 655 times in his last 25 games and he will be lucky to survive this season without getting hurt. The Chiefs’ overuse of Johnson is one of the factors that will be used against him in contract negotiations. It would hurt him on the open market. His poor blocking skills won’t do him any favors either.
The key for Johnson will be accepting that he’s not going to make LaDainian Tomlinson money. He will be lucky to get more than Frank Gore’s four-year, $28 million extension signed earlier this summer. There is also the possibility of a trade and signing like Deion Branch last year, but that shouldn't be a concern for fantasy leaguers. Almost any destination would probably help Johnson’s fantasy value, not hurt it.
The Chiefs hold almost all the cards here, and that’s why Johnson practically has to hold out as a negotiating ploy. Chiefs GM Carl Peterson is notoriously stingy. Surely he will point out that the Chiefs could easily retain Johnson’s services for the next 2-3 years by letting his contract play out and using the franchise tag. By 2009, the Chiefs will probably have used up the peak of Johnson’s career. Johnson is in a tough spot, and a “below-market” deal might still be his best chance to maximize dollars.
How does this affect the rest of the Chiefs?
One of our frequent commenters' “Dibble” asked Thursday whether this news raises rookie Kolby Smith’s value. As a dynasty league owner of Smith, I’d like to think so. But any bump is marginal. A holdout will give Smith extra time in training camp to prove that life after LJ in Kansas City will be fine. Perhaps a great month could help push the Chiefs to a trade, but I don’t see a match outside of Green Bay right now. And I don't see the Chiefs giving up on their best player so fast.
Smith still has to worry about beating out veteran Michael Bennett for the backup job. Both K.C. backups are squarely on the fantasy radar as fun late-round picks and possible handcuffs for Larry Johnson owners. But Herm Edwards does not want to go into Week 1 with a Smith/Bennett committee. And he probably won’t. Larry Johnson is the Kansas City offense presently and any missed time could grind the team to a halt.
There are a lot of reasons to be wary of Johnson as a top-five pick this season. His overuse last season was historical and he’s at risk of breaking down. His offensive line is a shell of what it used to be. Brodie Croyle will likely be starting his first NFL games. For Johnson’s fantasy owners, this holdout should be the least of their concerns.
Comments
The worry over KC's offensive line is much ado about nothing. Their line in 2007 will actually be improved from last year, not worse.
It's easy to say "oh no, Will Shields retired", but anyone who actually watched him play last year knows that his retirement really came in 2006. He did, in fact, plan to retire in '06 but was talked out of it by Willie "let me talk Shields into staying and then turn around and retire myself" Roaf.
And when the team lost Roaf out of the clear blue sky, Shields wasn't going to retire and worsen the blow. It was clear from watching him, though, that his initial decision to retire was the right one.
So the dropoff isn't going to be nearly as bad as people think it will. Nobody will step in and play like Shields in his prime, but playing like the Shields who suited up over the past few seasons? That's more than do-able.
And the weak link on the Chiefs' line last year was left tackle Jordan Black, who they let walk in free agency. If their only option at left tackle is to talk Dick Vermeil into playing, they're still better off than they were with Black.
Last season was about as bad as the KC line will ever be, and LJ's numbers were still huge. This year they'll have a right guard who doesn't have one foot in retirement and a left tackle who understands it's his job to stop people from getting to the QB, not aid them in the process.
Defenses not respecting Croyle early on is the biggest worry for LJ owners, assuming Croyle gets the nod.
Posted by: Dave | June 24, 2007 01:37 PM
All thi stalk of breaking down is absurd - yes the record work load could affect LJ in maybe 3 years, but certainly not this year. In fact LJ may be even better this year than last in the sense that he is likely to bump his receptions up to close to 60. The KC line is definitely going to be better than last year, Shields was a shell of himself last year, and now Damion McIntosh is at Left Tackle, and while he struggles in pass protection against quick Defensive ends, he is a punishing run blocker. LJ's demise is being GREATLY exagerated. Steven Jackson is not going to catch anywhere near 90 balls again, more like 60- just like LJ and the fact is people that take S Jax at #2 will regret passing on LJ. LJ is easily the #2 or #3 RB, with Frank Gore right there as well. LJ at #4 in drafts is a STEAL and will send many a team to their title games.
Posted by: Scott | June 26, 2007 08:56 AM