Joe Stoffel asks ...

With all the rumblings about how teams are going to moving to the dual back strategy in the NFL, how should this affect a draft strategy? So instead of the status quo "RB in the first two rounds", should we be drafting an elite RB in round one then going elite WR in round two and avoid wasting the high round pick on the number 1 of a dual back system?

Great question. There is a lot of concern out there about this subject and I'll try to write a column about it. First of all, I'm not necessarily sure that there is that many more running back committees now than usual. It seems more like a reversal to norm in NFL history after a growth of 400-touch monsters over the last five years. Of course those five years are when fantasy football exploded.

With that said, it certainly seems to be that running back depth is better than usual this year. No one from Oakland, Green Bay, and Tennesee are going in the top 50-60 picks. Committee partners like Julius Jones and DeShaun Foster are slipping out of the first 6-7 rounds.

After the top 16 running backs or so, they are all close in value. I absolutely think that makes wide receivers better picks overall in the first three rounds. I also think plenty of WR2s are better bets than the RB3 types that often go in rounds 4-5. If you can get your running back depth late, get your wide receiver starters early. So if you have say, a top-five pick, the running backs available at the end of round two may be poor bets.

The trick is deciding where your cut off is. Yesterday, I had a draft where I had the 11 pick. I took Reggie Bush. For the second round pick, I could choose either Chad Johnson (my top wideout) or choose between Ronnie Brown/Willis McGahee. If Johnson was gone, I probably would have gone running back over my No. 2 WR. I wouldn't necessarily make that choice in every league I'm in or if money was on the line. But I like to try different strategies with these industry drafts so I can write about it.

I felt that the running back depth would be sufficient enough to get a great wideout in that spot. I ended up with Carnell Williams/Julius Jones/Brandon Jackson being my RB2/3/4. Williams is the key. I wound up with Chad Johnson/Marques Colston/Jerricho Cotchery/Ronald Curry being my top four receivers. That's pretty sweet.

Continue reading "Mailbag: The Effect of RB Committees" »

Posted by Gregg Rosenthal at 10:57 AM | Permalink | Comments (8)

Still looking for suggestions for re-titling the blog before the season.

Some good reader submissions so far ...

Goal Line Stand. (Already my ranking column title, but nice synergy there)
Blogg. or Gregg's Fantasy Football Blogg. or FF Blogg.
Pancake Blocks (This one comes from my wife. Its so ridiculous I like it)
Gregg loves Football.

Keep sending them in or submitting which you like of these three below.

Back with a quick Mailbag before I head to the airport.

Posted by Gregg Rosenthal at 10:31 AM | Permalink | Comments (26)

The life of a a fantasy football writer isn't as glamorous as it seems. In between all the champagne rooms and the free NFL Sunday Ticket, we crunch a lot of numbers. And make rankings. Then make sure your projections line up perfectly with your top 200 rankings in every scoring format. Which a lot of places don't bother to do, but that's another column.

Inevitably it comes time to actually use the rankings, like in yesterday's draft. Suddenly, surprising names may rise to the top of your draft board. Players you absolutely don't want to draft. Players you do want to draft are buried. That's when it's time to re-evaluate.

I try not to tweak the rankings too much. We start work on them in February and there is an urge to over-think things. Not see the forest for the trees. With that said, improvement is always possible. Here are some players I'm reconsidering.

Ronnie Brown- The Ronnie Brown bandwagon waylaid a lot of fantasy owners last year, and I was one of his biggest supporters. This year, I originally pegged him as a mid-second round pick, roughly 16th at running back, 23rd overall. Now that I'm drafting, I realize that was too low. He's now moved up to thirteenth, ahead of Willis McGahee, Clinton Portis, and a handful of receivers.

Talent rises, and nothing I saw in 2006 convinced me that Brown is worse than a top-ten talent. The coaching and quarterback situations are upgrades, if modest. I don't want to let last year's emotions get in the way of a solid pick. I'm happy to make him my RB2, especially in points-per-reception leagues.

Marty Booker - Booker was atop my draft board yesterday in the latter rounds, and I absolutely didn't want him. He's a steady pro, an underrated player who has been stuck in bad offenses. But he's playing on another one and the wideout group is currently too crowded with Ted Ginn and Derek Hagan. You want to shoot higher with a late-round pick. He's going to move down from roughly 50th in PPR leagues to the mid-60's. A solid waiver pickup, an uninspiring late pick.

Continue reading "On Second Thought ..." »

Posted by Gregg Rosenthal at 04:13 PM | Permalink | Comments (1238)

While I'm asking for help with the mailbag, for the love of Frank Gore, this blog needs a new name. We are hoping to have a new banner on the site next week, so send me any ideas you have. Hashmarks is already taken. Email me or leave your ideas in the comments.

I'm working on a longish post, not sure if it will be wrapped up before my 5 PM NFL.com draft.

Posted by Gregg Rosenthal at 02:31 PM | Permalink | Comments (3)

I've always thought the regular fantasy mailbag column was a sign of a bored or uninspired writer. Or that an editor made the writer do it. Think of topics on your own!

That said, it lends itself well to the interactivity of the ol' blog format. I'm so 21st century, I almost want to join myspace.

So send a question to me for possible inclusion here. I'll pick questions that have the most relevance to a larger audience rather than just questions like start/sit. Think big fantasy football questions! That's all.

Magazine looks to be in good shape, so I'll try to post here again shortly.

Posted by Gregg Rosenthal at 12:20 PM | Permalink | Comments (2)

Round 11 starts with Joe Horn and Muhsin Muhammad. It looks like I'm not the only one who doesn't want to touch these guys this year.

Leinart, Roethlisberger, and Eli go in round 11. You can wait for your QB2, even in a league like this one that gives six points per touchdown.

Porter and Mike Furrey solid values in round 11. Anthony Gonzalez... I don't understand the fascination with a rookie third receiver.

Damn, Brandon Marshall taken one pick ahead of my in round 12, Maurice Stovall the same in round 13. Both were my sleepers lined up. Take the players you want.

Robert Meachem is a fun twelth round pick. Tab Perry is an odd one.
I take Lorenzo Booker in round 12, who was near the top of board even I didn't own Ronnie Brown.

First kicker goes at the end of the fourteenth - Vinatieri.

Some players that may undrafted because I'm down to just needing a kicker and defense: Patrick Crayton, Michael Pittman, Mark Bradley, Kolby Smith.

Thanks for stopping by today. I will write up this whole draft for a future column. I want to do another live Mock in the future, but tomorrow is out because I'm swamped here with the magazine.

My final team ... We start 3 WRs and a flex. It's PPR and with my team I'm probably starting four each week.

QB: Tony Romo, Eli Manning
RB: Joseph Addai, Ronnie Brown, LenDale White, Lorenzo Booker, DeDe Dorsey
WR: Anquan Boldin, Laveranues Coles, Jerricho Cotchery, Isaac Bruce, Ronald Curry, Wes Welker
TE: Antonio Gates
DEF: Raiders
K: Neil Rackers

Solid, unspectacular team. I like the receiver depth. Need a little juice and running back depth. The Romo pick is the only thing I'd do differently. It's definitely a PPR team, with a lot of players who have extra value in this format like Boldin, Cotchery, Coles, Brown, Bruce.

Gotta love a 90 minute, 16 round draft. ... And the Pizza is here. I can't believe I get paid for this.

Probably won't post again till Thursday, thanks for stopping by.

Posted by Gregg Rosenthal at 02:36 PM | Permalink | Comments (4)

Maybe I'm blogging too much and not paying attention enough to the draft. That Romo pick was the only mistake of the draft. Going against my board is a bad idea, and there were enough QBs available on the way back. Jordan, easily my top RB left, was gone. That left LenDale White and Brandon Jackson as possible RB3 picks.

I take White, then Ronald Curry in round nine as my WR4. A little light on RBs here. Some great TEs still be taken late - Cooley in round 8!, Witten in round 9. Kitna goes in round ten!

With three WRs and a flex in a PPR league, we basically start four wide receivers. Or I will anyway. So I draft Isaac Bruce or Jerry Porter because the value just isn't there at running back.

I smell a QB2 run coming (get this one right) and take Eli as my backup late in round 11.

Posted by Gregg Rosenthal at 01:53 PM | Permalink | Comments (66)

McNabb was off the board, so my next pick came down to Tony Romo, Jerricho Cothery, Braylon Edwards, and LaMont Jordan. We start three WRs and a flex in this league and I had Cotchery and Edwards a tier ahead of everyone else left, so I went with Cotchery. Go Jets!

I also figured Jordan and possibly Romo will slip to the next round. Tatum Bell went at the top of round seven, only a few picks after Kevin Jones. I dont want Bell at all.

D.J. Hackett went in the early sixth. Ahman Green and Julius Jones in mid-sixth. There will be quality running back options available in middle rounds this year. They are all tightly bunched after those first 15 or so, which means plenty will slip.

The second tier of tight ends go in the early sixth, making me feel good about my Gates pick.

** As I was typing this, I go drastically against my board for the first time all day and take Tony Romo over LaMont Jordan. I see the QBs about to go, and don't want to chance having Eli Manning as my QB1. Still, does this mean I don't really have faith in my boy Jon Kitna, who is still out there?

I would be a very happy man if LaMont Jordan slips another round.

Posted by Gregg Rosenthal at 01:45 PM | Permalink | Comments (10)

So I grabbed Lavaeranues Coles as my WR2 in the fifth round. Boldin is my WR1. Brown and Addai are the RBs, Gates is my TE. I was debating between Bulger and Coles, especially because we get 6 pts. per passing TD in this league. But Bulger went two picks ahead and made my choice easy. According to my board, I'm getting good value, which is all you can hope for.

I get the sense there is more disagreement about touts than usual after the top 20 picks or so this season.

Going to have to decide between Donovan McNabb and the best RB/WR in a bit. Hopefully.

Back with some interesting picks in a bit.

Posted by Gregg Rosenthal at 01:35 PM | Permalink | Comments (2)

With a mid-fourth round pick, I can't believe Brandon Jacobs and Marques Colston are still on the board with only two picks before me.

Of course you know what happened. They both went. I put my money where my mouth is in our magazine and drafted Antonio Gates. I never take a TE early, but it's a good year to take him in the fourth round. Still a huge gap till the next guy. I have Chris Cooley as the number two tight end with an early sixth-round grade. Gates is 29th on my list. If I didn't take him, I wouldn't have thought TE until round 8. My WRs are going to be a bit thin.

Posted by Gregg Rosenthal at 01:28 PM | Permalink | Comments (5)