May 17, 2007
Defensive backs, like defensive linemen, are the most replaceable assets in IDP leagues other than kickers. You can always find a cornerback on the waiver wire that will score points and the year-to-year consistency at the position isn’t there. Except at strong safety.
A great strong safety can be worth nearly as much as a top linebacker in tackle-heavy leagues. That’s why safeties make up the top-five of this list. Guessing which cornerbacks will score in fantasy leagues is too difficult.
1. LaRon Landry, Redskins – Landry seems like a sure bet playing strong safety in Washington next to Sean Taylor. Of course I thought the same thing about Michael Huff last year. Washington’s weak front seven could lead to more tackles for Landry.
2. Sabby Piscatelli, Bucs – Big drop-off between Landry and Piscatelli. Landry is worth a top-20 overall pick, while Piscatelli and the rest of the group are outside of my top 40. I’ll post a top-50 overall on Friday without comments.
Piscatelli is undersized, but he’s a big hitter who should challenge Jermaine Phillips for a starting job right away. The Bucs backfield is always a good source of numbers.
3. Brandon Meriweather, Patriots – He’s so good in coverage that we worry he won’t ever become a true strong safety. Meriweather projects to be closer to an Ed Reed-type, which tend to be unpredictable in fantasy leagues. Look for Meriweather to share free safety duties with Eugene Wilson this year if Rodney Harrison stays healthy.
4. Eric Weddle, Chargers - If I was ranking safeties just on 2007, Weddle would probably be number two. His starting job is nearly guaranteed. He's a heady, versatile player, but the Chargers system hasn't delivered big numbers from tackles in the past.
5. Aaron Rouse, Packers –I didn’t know much about Rouse before the draft, but I like what I’m hearing in Green Bay. He’s huge and an excellent tackler. Marquand Manuel is on thin ice, making Rouse quite the sleeper in deep leagues.
6. Reggie Nelson, Jaguars – See Brandon Meriweather. The wrap on Nelson is that he does one thing exceptionally: play centerfield and read the quarterback. But his deficiencies in other areas will show up in the NFL and lead to low tackle numbers.
Continue reading "Rookie Dynasty Rankings: DBs" »
I'll watch just about anything about the NFL, but the NFL Network's latest "Inside Minicamp" series is hard to get excited about. The line drills are pointless to watch without pads on. The best part of the show is the 7-on-7 drills, but that's not guaranteed to even be part of the program. The episode on the Rams I watched didn't include any.
It's basically an hour-long show analyzing a team, which isn't so bad if it's your favorite team. Jamie Dukes had the duties on the episode I watched. He's an acquired taste, but I think he actually has knowledge and work behind his statements. It's definitely a good show to use the Tivo remote with. I took nothing away from the show except that the Rams coaches are gushing about Brian Leonard, and Adam Carriker is going to play nose guard occasionally. I could find that in the paper.
It's not a good sign when the highlight of the hour was actually the UnderArmour commercial played at the beginning. Any spot with that ends with Steve Spurrier hanging up the phone and saying "click, clack" is all right by me.
Note: DB Rankings later this afternoon.
May 16, 2007
Linebackers are the defensive position worth reaching for throughout dynasty league drafts. They are highly predictable, can start right away, and have long careers. Their tackle numbers make them the alpha dogs of IDPs. Players like David Harris and Patrick Willis can be plugged into most starting lineups (fantasy and reality) from day one and be left there.
I play in tackle-heavy leagues, so outside linebackers in 3-4 systems get big downgrades. They are too reliant on big plays and not enough on tackles. If your system is structured differently, make adjustments to these rankings.
1. Patrick Willis, 49ers - Willis went fourth overall in my league. I’d rather gamble on Robert Meachem or Brandon Jackson, but Willis is a safe pick. 3-4 inside linebackers have more competition for tackles, but Willis is an exceptional talent that should produce right away.
2. Jon Beason, Panthers - It doesn’t really matter if he plays weak-side linebacker or middle linebacker when Dan Morgan gets hurt or is force to retire. Beason is an intelligent ballhawk that should have at least five good years in a linebacker-friendly system.
The next great Miami LB
3. Paul Posluzny, Bills - Playing in the middle will make Posluzny a valuable IDP starter in Buffalo. Tampa 2 defenses tend to have very productive middle linebackers. I don’t really know why he slipped in the NFL Draft, but the Bills did a nice job with similar players last year.
4. David Harris, Jets - There should be enough tackles to go around for Harris and Jonathan Vilma. It should only be a matter of time before Eric Barton is off the roster, opening up Harris’ starting spot. There is a big drop-off after Harris, so he’s worth a look in the top 35 overall rookie picks. I'd take Harris over LaRon Landry or any DL.
5. Michael Okwo, Bears - The rest of the linebackers may take some time to make an impact. Okwo is the favorite to be the heir apparent to Lance Briggs in Chicago, but he’ll have to beat out Jamar Williams. Boom or bust pick.
Continue reading "Rookie Dynasty Rankings: LBs" »
John Czarnecki and Brett Favre apparently are in a tiff. The Czar can be hit or miss with information, but he's right on with this analysis. Pay close attention to how the team and Favre handle this week's mandatory minicamp. If the Packers make a stink about Favre skipping, there could still be trouble on the horizon. My guess is Favre is compelled to show up.
It's mid-May, and they are still writing about Bill Parcells in in Dallas. The Dallas Morning News says Parcells was involved in all personnel decisions, including T.O.
I like the idea of a football season as a soap opera. That's pretty much how they structure it in Philly and elsewhere, like a long WWE narrative.
There is a lot of doubt about Donovan McNabb in Philadelphia right now. Maybe there are problems between McNabb and the organization, but he was the best quarterback in the league in the first half of last season. Give the guy the benefit of the doubt.
Shawn Andrews introduces the term "Bro-Hawk."
The Boston Herald points out something that crossed my mind. The changes to the injury report are mostly semantics. We always had tags of whether a player fully practice, partially practiced, or not. I still think anyone that is truly up in the air will be listed as "questionable" and having partially practiced, just like in the past. There will still be plenty of game-time decisions.
I still like the changes because there was no need to update questionable, doubtful, etc. for three straight days. Placing a final answer on Friday is an improvement.
The Jaguars are struggling to sell tickets. In my mind, they continue to be the most likely team to get moved.
May 15, 2007
I'll rank keeper league prospects at DL, LB, and DB this week, combining them on Friday with a Top 40 overall rookie rankings. Today, let's look at the linemen.
I'm not into drafting linemen in dynasty leagues, at least not the four-round, 48-player draft in my league. The reason? Huge risk, marginal upside. It's so hard to find offensive talent in dynasty leagues, whereas a serviceable defensive line starter is only a waiver pick away. It's a position that takes time to develop in the NFL, time that isn't worth spending in dynasty leagues. Only a few linemen coming out are difference makers in fantasy leagues each year, and many times they are players like Mark Anderson that come out of nowhere.
With that said, here is my look at the 2007 class. We are listing Anthony Spencer, LaMarr Woodley, and Lawrence Timmons as linebackers. Draft them as DEs if your league allows it.
Continue reading "Rookie Dynasty Rankings: DLs" »
My gut tells me that Trent Edwards' presence is going to make J.P. Losman comfortable sometime this December.
Devin Hester playing offense gives the Bears options. He's going to be a pain to plan for, even if he only takes ten snaps a game. It's hard to imagine him having much fantasy impact besides stealing a few yards from teammates.
Romeo Crennel states the obvious. Charlie Frye is more likely to start Week 1 than Brady Quinn. The Cleveland schedule does Frye no favors: Pittsburgh, Cincy, Oakland, Baltimore, and New England open the schedule. The Browns by week comes in Week 7. Frye might need a 3-3 record at that point to keep his job.
My new column is up. I look at 25 players who took a hit in value during the NFL Draft, including Chester Taylor, Deuce McAllister, and Devery Henderson.
The new baseball fantasy fix video is is also up.
Continue reading "Tuesday Links" »
May 14, 2007
I don't want to bury a guy too early, but Brian Finneran's career is probably over if this report is true.
That makes ACL surgeries in successive years for a 31-year-old who always had questionable speed. I'll remember Finneran mostly for the way Jim Mora mishandled him for three seasons, usually in favor of Dez White and Peerless Price. Finneran was Atlanta's most effienct receiver during a terrible phase of the Mike Vick Era and didn't see the ball enough.
Finneran's best fantasy season was under Dan Reeves in 2002 when he finished as the WR31 with 838 yards, six touchdowns, and a 15 yards-per-catch average. He played especially well in the NFC Divisional loss to the Eagles after Vick helped beat the Packers in Lambeau. That feels like a lifetime ago.
Finneran's injury should guarantee a spot on the Falcons for second-year pro Adam Jennings. Look for Roddy White and rookie speedster Laurent Robinson to compete for the third receiver job behind Joe Horn and Michael Jenkins.
(This is me trying to use photos. That's Roddy White!)
I'm not sure the Atlanta depth chart at wideout makes a difference this year anyhow. They should all cancel each other out and I'm not buying Petrino magic until I see it. Life would have been much easier for Vick this season if he had his reliable third receiver around.
Note: I've had a few requests and will post rookie defensive rankings on the blog this week. One position group per day starting Tuesday.
The Green Bay Press-Gazette starts their story about Brett Favre's recent trade request by saying it's "likely no big deal." Huh? This a newspaper that has a special section on the site titled "Captain Favrelous" and it's not big news that he wants out of town.
The paper says a source close to Favre, "Might have talked about wanting a trade shortly after the draft but has given no such indication recently."
I know I was on vacation, but wasn't the draft only two weeks ago? Favre continues to build a divide between himself and the organization with his public comments, especially those made at his golf tournament Saturday. He's misguided to think that Randy Moss wanted to play for the Packers as much as he did the Patriots, but Favre is right that moving on makes sense for him and the Packers right now.
The most surprising part of Brett Favre's trade request? The lack of backlash the veteran quarterback receives for his leadership style. Favre continues to blame his teammates for any offensive shortcomings and never talks of what he needs to do to improve.
"Our offense struggled last season. If it were not for our defense, we would not have won eight games. Right now, it's hard to be optimistic," Favre said.
I'm sure Greg Jennings and the young offensive linemen enjoy reading that. Still, most of the public reaction in Green Bay seems to blame Ted Thompson for the mess, ignoring the fact that Moss probably didn't want to play in Green Bay in the first place.
The Packers felt so threatened by Favre's comments that they released a public statement Sunday. I believe they want to keep Favre at this point. Aaron Rodgers is unproven and isn't healthy. That said, if Favre continues to moan, Ted Thompson will be forced to start life after Favre sooner than later.
I don't see it happening, but I also didn't see the Titans locking Steve McNair out of their facility a year ago. McNair, not so coincidentally, is another Bus Cook client. Cook, as profootballtalk.com writes, seems to be behind a lot of these manuervings. If he wants Favre out of Green Bay, Cook should be able to find a way.
May 11, 2007
We'll get back to daily weekday posts starting Monday, focusing more on fantasy value. Between here and the columns, I'll take a belated look at winners and losers among NFL veterans after the NFL Draft, and rank dynasty league prospects on defense.
I'm on the clock with a late second-round pick in my league and was disappointed to see a sliding Ted Ginn just come off the board. I'm not a huge fan, but he's better than 26th best rookie pick. The best options left according to my board are Antonio Pittman, Jacoby Jones, David Harris, and Brian Leonard. I hate passing on running backs in a 16-team league, but my instinct is that Jones will have a chance to start right away.
Hopefully no one in my league reads this.
Ricky Williams has to be in the top-five active players in terms of total Rotoworld posts. As I wrote the news today that Williams failed another drug test, I surprisingly was a little depressed that he may be done with the NFL. He's certainly done with the Dolphins.
That doesn't mean the posts will slow down anytime soon. We will cover the inevitable appeals and applications for reinstatement. But we doubt the NFL will let him back into the league this year. If he was suspended for a year for missing a test, then fails another during the year, why would Roger Goodell let him back in the league? Even if Goodell did let Williams back, the season will already be under way and teams may not want to take the chance.
Williams will be 31 years old in 2008 and we're guessing he'll have missed two straight NFL seasons. He's certainly still talented enough to be a quality backup and he needs the money, so Ricky is not going to give up. But the NFL may give up on him. It's a new era and pot-addled oddballs don't fit in.
For fantasy leaguers (knew I'd get here eventually), this news means that Ronnie Brown should get drafted somewhere in the top 30 picks. We have him graded as a high RB2, a borderline second round pick. Lorenzo Booker becomes his clear backup and an interesting prospect in his own right.
Perhaps Brown will have a better career than Williams, although he has a ways to go. But there's no chance Brown will be as interesting as Ricky. Williams started his career in a wedding dress and may have been on his yoga treat Friday when it ended.
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