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Just missed ...

I posted my top 40 running backs for 2007 in today's column. Let me know where you disagree. The Cowboys and Ronnie Brown were the toughest to rank, but I think this is the most tightly bunched group of RB2s and RB3s in memory.

Here were the players that just missed my list and why ...

Tatum Bell, Lions - Depends on Kevin Jones, but T.J. Duckett's presence means that Bell could limited regardless.

Dominic Rhodes, Raiders - Average talent on a below-average offense.

Anthony Thomas, Bills - If the season started today, he'd crack the top 40 list. But the Bills have to add a first-round pick. Right?

Mike Bell, Broncos - Not giving up on him just yet. If Travis Henry underperforms and Denver doesn't take a first-day running back, Bell has a chance.

Ricky Williams, Dolphins - Could move up when reinstated, but I doubt he'll hit top 35 unless Miami deals him.


Comments

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Hey, I'm glad you had your ranking out already. It makes me feel less anal for having mine made.

My main issue with your rankings is with how low you have Jones-Drew. Even if he has a slower year than last, in my eyes, he's a T-10 guy. I see him, Maroney, Addai, and Bush all very tightly bunched towards the end of the first round. Jones-Drew was much better, productivity-wise, than his rookie counterparts.

Also, I think you have Lendale White and LaMont Jordan too high. I'm sure you'll drop White some if/when the Titans draft some competition, but what I saw of him last year dissapointed me, a USC fan. Also I drafted Jordan early second round last year, and carry a deep seeded resentment towards the guy. I know the Raiders were terrible, but Kiffin wont change their culture of losing.

I completely agree with your assertion that this is the most tightly bunched group of RB2's and RB3's. I did some research on last year:

I found the average draft position for the top 60 RB's. Then I divided them by 12, the first 12 being RB1's, second 12 RB2's... ect.

RB1's scored 2282 points. (In my league, 1pt per 10 yds rush/rec, 6 per TD.)

RB2's scored 1781
RB3's scored 1712

I'm just saying the line between RB2 and RB3 was thin last year as well.

Interesting numbers. MJD is a player I don't know what to do with. He got lucky to score that many times and I think the jags will pass more. that said, hed be a top five player as a starter.

I think your numbers support what I'm saying. Last year's group of rb2s and rbs were close, but we didn't know that so many backups would have big seasons. it will affect this year's drafts

I don't understand how Steven Jackson's 436 touches are any less concerning than Larry Johnson's 457. Catching swing passes is less damaging on the body? 21 more touches isn't a difference maker in my book, and although LJ is older, it's not like he was worked hard in his early seasons; in fact, S-Jax has been worked much harder, as LJ has accumulated just 103 more touches in TWO more seasons played.

I personally have L.J. at 3, above Gore, but below Jackson.

I think it's tempting to put S Jax and Gore higher because they jumped into the elite status in 06, while they started the season as high potential guys. Where as expectations were sky high for L.J. due to his 05 9-game tear. And while he was the second best RB in my league, he only beat out Jackson by 3 points. And his standard deviation was only one percent lower.

In the end, I think if your lucky enough to get an elite guy, you still have to acknowlege it's a crap-shoot; Alexander, Ronnie Brown, LaMont Jordan, Carnell Williams, and Clinton Portis were all first rounders last year. In my eyes, L.J. is as likely to stay healthy as S Jax is, which is no sure thing. RB's take a pounding, no matter what. I have S Jax higher than L.J. because I think he'll have more points when the year is over than L.J., if they both were healthy throughout the year.

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