Don't expect Jones to improve for NYJ
My first thought on the Thomas Jones trade was that it was a great move for the Jets. My second thought was that it was only so-so Jones' fantasy owners. It's good to get away from Cedric Benson, but I doubt the 2007 Jets is a better situation than the 2006 Bears. The only person this trade helps in fantasy leagues is Benson.
The Jets will know how to use Jones' versatility and make him effective per-touch. Jones will be happy because he's making big money the next two years. But I suspect he'll get the ball even less than in Chicago.
Jones averaged 336 touches the last two seasons. He finished ninth in fantasy points at running back in 2005, and 21st in 2006. Add in the playoff touches and Jones has been worked hard the last two years.
The Jets have a young running backs behind Jones that they love in Leon Washington. They will want to keep him involved to keep Jones fresh. Jones tended to wear down in games in 2006, which is why Cedric Benson was such an effective partner in the playoffs.
Here are the stats to back it up, courtesy of the NY Daily News.
Carries 1 to 15: 220 attempts, 942 yards, 4 touchdowns, 4.3 average per carry.
Carries 16+: 76 attempts, 268 yards, 2 touchdowns, 3.5 average.
Jones topped 20 carries nine times last year, but only once in Chicago's last eight games, including the playoffs. I bet that trend continues in 2007.
Comments
Not to split hairs, but is seems a decrease in touches would be benificial due to his drop in apc.
Also, due to the departure of Barlow, I feel Jones would be the better suited for the goal-line vulture role Barlow carried last year.
I think his value is right in the area of:
Shawn Alexander
Chester Taylor
Thomas Jones
Willis McGahee
Fred Taylor
Travis Henry
Posted by: Andres | March 7, 2007 12:16 PM
I disagree about touches, even if he's better per touch, 50-75 less touches hurts. id put jones close to fred taylor on that list, but below the other guys
Posted by: gregg | March 8, 2007 12:07 PM
Gregg,
That carries stat is bogus. Let's examine the scores of the games T. Jones had more than 15 carries in: 26-0, 34-7, 19-16 (just 18 carries), 37-6, 40-7, 41-10, lost 13-31, 38-20, 10-0, lost 13-17. Six blowouts, 8 wins. What that says is MANY of his late-game carries came when it was clear the Bears would be running, which is far from ideal conditions for posting a strong average. By my count, 50 of the 76 carries occurred in blowouts. Additionally, he had 5 carries on the last drive in the Bears-Jets game, which was virtually over by that point.
And the explaination is simple for his lack of 20+ carry games later in the year: fewer big-time blowouts, and a desire in the regular season to save him for the playoffs.
Posted by: Garber | March 27, 2007 10:13 AM
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Posted by: rose@hotmail.com | April 10, 2007 08:28 AM
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Posted by: black@hotmail.com | April 17, 2007 12:48 PM