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February 04, 2007

What Now?

Before we sign off on Super Bowl XLI (morning news is only 9 hours away), here are four key figures from this game that face uncertain futures.

Rex Grossman: Is he the guy? Lovie Smith can be as confident publicly as he wants, but there must be private doubts. The situation is made much trickier this off-season because Grossman has only one year left on his contract.

He'll want a new deal, and Chicago will want to give him one. But making the right offer, without insulting Grossman, could be very tricky. If he enters training camp next year without a deal, next year will be a bigger circus than this one. Brian Griese looms large.

Tony Dungy: Will he retire? He's accomplished everything you can in football and has spoken often about leaving the game in the past. He probably will answer this question this week. If Dungy left, assistant head coach Jim Caldwell would probably be the favorite to replace him. Ron Rivera would seem to be another candidate.

Thomas Jones: If Cedric Benson tore his ACL Sunday night, it will be easy to keep Jones. If the injury was less serious as expected, like a MCL tear or sprain, then Jones becomes quite tradeable. He has only one year left on his contract and both backs want to be "the man" in 2007. We'd keep them both, though. If it's not broke...

Dominic Rhodes:He made a lot of money Sunday night. He can probably earn more in free agency by leaving the Colts. He ran like a man possessed in the playoffs, but they will surive just fine without him.

It's been a great season, our first one with NBC, and I want to thank everyone for supporting the site. Our off-season coverage will get in full swing this week with a free agency preview and all the 24 hour coverage on our player news page.

Deserving Champions

I picked the the Colts to win the Super Bowl before the playoffs started because I thought Peyton Manning was playing the best football of his career. I thought it was their time and they were mentally tougher after all their failure and all the close wins they pulled off this season.

I didn't think their defense would lead the way for much of the playoffs. Honestly, tonight may have been their worst playoff game of the four this year. They were dominant once again, but let the Bears hang around forever because of early errors.

I've seen people write that it's ironic this Colts team made the Super Bowl because their old versions were better. But I disagree. They were 13-3. FootballOutsiders says this was a historically efficient offense. Their run defense was a sieve late in the regular season, but the team had little to play for. And it was always very good against the pass.

The Colts, like the Patriots (and Steelers/Eagles to lesser extent) have beat the salary cap parity era and maintained excellence for a long time. They deserve a title, especially their two leaders: Peyton Manning and Tony Dungy. I'll be back with one more post before I sleep, but have to finish my Rotoworld news responsibilities first. Thanks for stopping by tonight.

MVP

My vote is for Rex Grossman. Okay, that's just mean.

Dominic Rhodes and Joseph Addai are over 100 total yards, so they will probably cancel each other out. Peyton Manning will probably be the pick. He could use the publicity. Plus it would be awkward to put Dominic Rhodes on the 2007 NFL Record & Fact Book. Especially if he leaves the Colts via free agency.

Like the Bears defense ...

I'm starting to fatigue. Here's some advice for the kids out there. Never, ever go apartment hunting in February. Bad idea.

The rest of these posts are all over the place like Rex Grossman passes. Or snaps. I just peaked at a Washington Post liveblog from Tony Kornheiser and Michael Wilbon. Kornheiser is wasted. Why didn't I think of that?

I'm dreading the poor post-game press conference for Grossman. I hope they let him skip it. Some reporter will ask a, "I told you weren't that good" question and Grossman (or Lovie Smith) will go all Dennis Green.

Mike and the Mad Dog said earlier this week that the only person they've ever seen more miserable during Super Bowl week than Grossman was Marv Levy in his first Super Bowl. His week is about to get worse.

One Play

So much for this game not being defined by one play. Kelvin Hayden's 56-yard interception return of a Rex Grossman floater should put this one away.

The Bears haven't fooled the Colts defense all day. Hayden knew the double move was coming. Chicago, who struggles to complete short passes, hasn't hit short or long passes all day. It seems like Grossman doesn't get off his primary receiver very often.

Harrison highlight

Marvin Harrison is one of the greatest regular season receivers of all time , but he doesn't have much playoff success. If he doesn't make another play tonight, I'll always remember that diving 11-yard, top-tapping catch at the end of the third quarter.

It was a classic Harrison play: making an impossible catch look smooth. It also came at a point that Chicago had a little momentum brewing. This Super Bowl doesn't seem to be one that will be defined by one play, but an accumulation of steady big plays by Harrison, Wayne, Addai, and Manning. Since Muhsin Muhammad's touchdown, the Bears haven't made many.

(Of course in the time it take to write this, the Bears stop the Colts three plays later on a GREAT play by Nathan Vasher covering Harrison.)

We have a ballgame.

Breaking point

Like a lot of Super Bowls, this game has featured great intensity and occasionally sloppy play. It's beyond amazing that the Bears are still only one possession down late in the third quarter despite having only four first downs to 20 for the Colts.

It has been Chicago's M.O. to stop the opposing offense when they absolutely needed to during the playoffs. That has held true tonight, but they are going to have to start scoring points or forcing Indy into some three-and-outs.

Addai in the life

Bill Polian's decision to let Edgerrin James walk via free agency, then take Joseph Addai late in the first round has proven to be a masterstroke.

Addai isn't flashy, but he's just so fundamentally solid and continues to make people miss while converting third downs. He has 126 total yards through three quarters. The Colts have run 57 offensive plays to 18 for the Bears.

Hunter Smith did a nice job on a bad snap to help Vinatieri hit a 24-yard field goal. The Bears have managed to slow down the Colts just enough in the red zone to stay in this game.

King Solomon!

Gutsy decision by CBS to use two of their better analysts, Solomon Wilcots and Steve Tasker, as sideline reporters for this game. I like it.

Wilcots is usually buried on the fifth-team with Ian Eagle doing Browns-Texans, but he always does a great job. Tasker benefits from sitting next to the most exciting play-by-play guy in the NFL - Gus Johnson.

CBS just said that Muhsin Muhammad is the third player in NFL history to score for two different teams in the Super Bowl. Ricky Proehl is one of the others. Who's the third?

Vander-tieri?

A nation of Patriots fans just made the same joke: Good to see Adam Vinatieri is still on the payroll.

It's worth noting that Vinatieri missed his biggest kick of the 2005 season, a playoff try against the Broncos that could have made it a one possession game. He also missed two kicks against the Patriots in Foxborough this year, and missed two kicks in New England's three-point Super Bowl win over Carolina.

There is no doubt in my mind Vinatieri is a Hall of Famer, and has made more big kicks than anyone in NFL history. He became one of my favorite players ever after the snow game against Oakland.

But like most "clutch" legends, his actual track record has shortcomings that people forget about. Clutch usually evens out over time. Colts fans just hope Vinatieri's karmic payback doesn't continue after halftime.

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