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Did Ray Dance?

Underrated storyline of the year was the Ravens not allowing Ray Lewis to do his pre-game dance at times. They wanted the focus to go back to the team. As far as I know, he started breaking it out towards the end of the season or during special occasions. Today would probably qualify.

And we're off...

Questions

Here are some of the big questions that will help decide today's game...

1. Will Baltimore's blitz get to Manning?

EA NFL Matchup pointed out a few fascinating stats Saturday. Peyton Manning has the highest QB rating in the NFL when teams blitz him. Baltimore still blitzed him 80+% of the time when they played last season.

It may take Manning 2-3 quarters to figure out where the pressure is coming from, but he'll make Baltimore pay if he does. Indianapolis, on the other hand, blitzes less than almost any team in the league.

2. Can Samari Rolle hang with Reggie Wayne?

I think Wayne is the best receiver in the AFC. Marvin Harrison may be a close second. But Wayne will have a better chance to make big plays because Samari Rolle has lost a step.

3. Can Steve McNair stretch the field?

Bob Sanders is going to live as the "eighth man in the box" unless McNair can go over the top once or twice early. If McNair has a weakness, it's his deep ball.

4. Can Jamal Lewis make a difference?

People want to talk about Lewis' resurgence this season. But his 3.6 yards-per-carry average was weak. If he's ordinary, the Ravens will struggle to control the clock.

5. Were the Colts playing possum?

Indianapolis has done everything possible over the years in the regular season. After going 9-0, they were sluggish down the stretch. But this team knows that their season started last week. If the Chiefs game is any indication, their intensity will be different Saturday. I think it's their year, finally. Just when no one expects it.

Prediction: Colts 31 Ravens 24

Ravens-Colts Inactives Analysis

Welcome to ... my apartment. This will be my first stab at blogging during a game. Should be fun.

No surprises among the inactives for both teams. Ravens LT Jonathan Ogden is starting, as expected. His matchup with Dwight Freeney will be a key to the game. Freeney has come on strong late in the season, and Ogden could struggle with him if he's not 100%. The Colts are known as a finesse team, but I think their speed could pose problems for Baltimore's offensive line. The Ravens short passing game could mitigate Indy's pass rush though.

Joseph Addai is active for the Colts, as expected. He'll probably start. CB Nick Harper is also active. Ricky Proehl, signed to be their third receiver is out. Other Colts that are out: WR Ricky Proehl, CB Tim Jennings, DB T.J. Rushing, LB Gilbert Gardner, DE Bo Shobel, G Matt Ulrich, T Dan Federkeil, and WR John Standeford.

The Colts rush defense has turned around since they benched Gardner late in the year. Rob Morris is going to pick up snaps and help defend the run. Look for Bob Sanders to be the eighth man in the box on rushing downs.

Comments aren't yet working, so send any in-game comments to GRosenthal@Rotoworld.com.

January 12, 2007

Friday Night Links

Perhaps Pete Caroll is feeling some wanderlust for the NFL, after all. As a Patriots fan, I'd certainly welcome him back to the AFC East. It makes you wonder how much money is enough. He's king of L.A, guaranteed to win 9 out of 11 games a year, and is headed for almost certain mediocrity if he goes back to the NFL again.

  • Much of the NFL seems surprised about Tony Gonzalez's megadeal. The contract details are impressive - no other tight end in the league will come close to Gonzo's numbers. But I think the Chiefs had to make the deal to keep him. Free agents are going to make an insane amount this season.

    NFL teams have never had the amount of salary cap space that they do now. Kansas City is anticipating the market well. Tony Gonzalez for $17 million guaranteed won't look so crazy in a month when Nate Clements and Asante Samuel are getting $15 million plus.

  • Evan Silva breaks down the effect of BCS bowls on the NFL Draft.

  • FootballOutsiders has the best AFC preview I've seen of the playoffs thus far. I picked the Colts, and FO's belief in the excellence of Baltimore has me worried. I watched about 5 tapes of Baltimore this season, but they were all in the first half of the season. I didn't see McNair's development under Brian Billick and am looking forward to watching (and blogging) the game tomorrow. Until then...

  • Beef Stew

    Just occured to me I'm supposed to blog after each Fix show and it looks like Tiffany beat me by an hour. Kiss up. Of course, she's probably in a hurry because she's going out on Friday night, while I'm catching up on Tivo. Tiffany wrote about our sweet new digs at the Bradfords Grill and Tavern.

    Check out our show

    Part of me is going to miss Bobby V's . Nothing beats eating on a table laminated with baseball cards of Rance Mulliniks and Garth Iorg. Another part of me is excited about Bradford's. Two words sum up the place: Beef stew. If you are one of the 14 people reading this blog that doesn't work for NBC and you happen to live in Stamford, stop by and say hello.

    Sinking Arizona

    So it turns out profootballtalk.com wasn't totally wrong about their Mike Sherman report. FoxSports.com reported Friday that the Cardinals let Sherman walk after balking at his $4 million salary demands.

    We're not sure who looks more foolish here. The Cardinals, for not simply paying their top choice for the most important member of the organization. Or Sherman, who isn't likely to get many head coaching offers again. We'll vote for Sherman. The Cardinals have a great looking offense. If he won some games, he'd get paid. And it's not like he's rolling in the dough as an offensive line coach.

    My fiance says this blog is boring and I can't disagree so far. Just getting started. Check back this weekend, when I'll liveblog some NFL action. I don't think that's what she had in mind in terms of spicing the place up.

    Alright, time to head out for the Fix's Football/Baseball Friday night doubleheader ...

    January 11, 2007

    The Shermanator

    Profootballtalk.com reported earlier Thursday that former Packers coach Mike Sherman will take over the Cardinals head coaching job. While that report proved premature, he looks like the favorite. The choice would be an uninspiring one.

    Sherman racked up regular season wins in Green Bay, but he was given Brett Favre in his prime. The Packers still had the remnants of their Super Bowl championship team - it was a cushy gig.

    Sherman's was not an effective gameday coach and it showed up in his 2-4 postseason record. Green Bay's collapses against Philadelphia and Minnesota under Sherman particularly showed an undisciplined defense.

    Of course, the Cardinals would be happy just to make the playoffs. Arizona has the best young offensive talent in the NFC and Sherman's Green Bay did consistently score points. Sherman would bring the West Coast offense, which is a fine fit for Matt Leinart's skills.

    Anquan Boldin is a protypical flanker and should continue to rack up 100 catches a season. Both Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald will struggle to post as many garbage-time stats as they did under Dennis Green. It's uncertain if Sherman would bring a zone blocking scheme to Arizona like he coached in Houston. If nothing else there is hope Sherman can produce numbers in Arizona, if not wins. Just like Dennis Green!

    Franchises almost always hire the opposite of their most recent failed coach. Dennis Green was emotional and reportedly disorganized. Sherman is blander than milquetoast and a former executive.

    Update: The The East Valley Tribune reports that Ken Whisenhunt will get a second interview in Arizona. Either way, it's not a done deal.

    The Fix

    Tiffany and I just taped our Thursday Goal Line Stand Fix. I love doing the show, but the one part that kills me every time is the sign off. I'm entirely comfortable (maybe too comfortable) talking about football until I'm blue in the face. But I still haven't overcome the awkwardness of "saying goodbye" to no one in particular in a mostly empty studio. It's just not natural.

    I've gone with "see you later" or "see you then" for most of the season. Pretty weak. Today our producer Harriet wrote "Go Pats" for me, and I said it despite showing my obvious homerism. She also asked both Tiffany and I to write a blog entry about the show. The lesson, as always: listen to whatever Harriet says.

    Now I don't want to go all Katie Couric, but I'm taking this time to ask both of my readers out there for some ideas on a signoff. I'm looking for something in between "Stay Classy" and "Goodnight, and Good Luck." Since the comments aren't quite working here yet, send any ideas to me at GRosenthal@Rotoworld.com.

    See you later.

    January 10, 2007

    Wednesday Links: Coughlin Stays

    Relatively quiet morning, at least until the Giants decided their coach for 2007 ...

  • Mike Francesa was right. Tom Coughlin will remain as Giants coach on a one-year extension. No announcement was made on a possible GM, but Jerry Reese is considered the in-house favorite.

    I expect major changes to Coughlin's staff, but this was a best case scenario for the Giants offensive players in fantasy leagues. Coughlin's defensive coordinator Tim Lewis is interviewing for the Dolphins head coaching job on the same day he may get fired. That has to be a first.

    Coughlin's system has produced plenty of big numbers. Brandon Jacobs has a better chance to suceed and be The Man next season with Coughlin around. Eli Manning didn't need to learn another offensive system. This one suits his strengths.

  • Mike Martz is suddenly a busy man. The Lions coordinator will be one of the 12 coaches to speak with Miami about their head coaching position. (12!) Guess Wayne Huizenga hasn't found what he's looking for.

    There is also mutual interest between Martz and the Raiders. Martz would be a best case scenario choice in Oakland for fantasy league and entertaining purposes. But USC QB coach Steve Sarkesian is reportedly the favorite.

  • Another name mentioned in Miami is talented Jets offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer. If hired, he'd replace his current boss Eric Mangini as the youngest coach in the NFL.

    A lot of Miami's choices for interviews don't make sense because Wayne Huizenga reportedly wants someone to have complete control of football operations. That's asking a lot for a first-time head coach.

  • Perhaps this is why Willis McGahee wants a contract extension.

  • Win or lose, it looks like Lovie Smith is sticking with Rex Grossman. Smith denied reports that Grossman is on a short leash.

    Perhaps Lovie is just trying to buoy Grossman's struggling confidence. Another way to show support Sunday would be to spread out the Seahawks and attack their lack of depth in the secondary. Bill Parcells' conservative approach helped cost him a game.

  • The Houston Chronicle continues to believe that the Texans will deal David Carr. In this scenario, Houston would pick up a veteran to compete with The Sage Rosenfels Experience. Jake Plummer makes a lot of sense.

  • The Ravens are sure talking a lot of trash for a team that hasn't won a playoff game in six seasons. Ray Lewis joked that he didn't know who Joseph Addai was. Bart Scott said he's going to put some "hot sauce" on Peyton Manning.

    There was a report Tuesday that the Ravens were hoping they didn't play the Patriots in the AFC Championship. Confidence is great, but Baltimore may have too much. I think it will bite them.

  • New Jaguars offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter has a porn-star worthy name. And he loves the vertical passing game. I think that makes Byron Leftwich's big arm much more likely to remain a Jaguar next season.

  • It doesn't seem fair, but Marty Schottenheimer is reportedly likely to get fired if the Chargers lose to New England this week.

  • Jeremy Shockey wants to play for the Eagles, not that he has the option. I doubt the Tom Coughlin announcement will change his vote.

  • The season ended for the Jets and Chiefs last week and the report cards are out. No one does a better job with these than the Kansas City Star's Jason Whitlock. Calling the team's QB "Trent Bledsoe" is harsh, but I agree with the sentiment. Giving Ty Law a higher grade than Patrick Surtain is a joke. Whitlock may as well by Law's agent.

    Rich Cimini of the NY Daily News gives his grades for every Jet. For all the positives in New York, their defense needs major work this off-season.

  • Finally, I posted my top fantasy 50 keepers for 2007. Thanks for checking in.

  • January 09, 2007

    Coyer's Last Words

    The Broncos fired defensive coordinator Larry Coyer Tuesday. It's not a huge surprise considering the uneven play of his unit. In 2005, they blitzed like crazy and it caught up to them down the stretch. In 2006, they played in their base defense ad naseum and it caught up to them. If the Broncos defense had a trademark the last two seasons, it was the ability to play far better in September than December and lose leads late in games.

    In an odd ending to his tenure, Coyer released a 537-word statement on his way out including a shoutout to the custodian. Here's the part that interested me.


    "Prior to the season's end I opted to put all my efforts into game planning. At least we were able to win two of the last three games. Did (we) always coach and play to our best ability? No! No one does. There is always room to do better. However, I am not the person judging my decision to put all of game-planning efforts into the last three games while I was laying plans for changes I would like to see at season's end or the decision to replace me. I have the highest regard for (Mike Shanahan) and have no choice but to accept his decision and do so with as much dignity and grace as I can muster."

    Huh? Was he trying to dig Shanahan there? If Coyer's game plans were half as confusing as that paragraph, you can see why it's time for a change.

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