July 15, 2009
Matt Cassel's o-line might be better than he, or anyone else thinks
One of the most disturbing stats from Matt Cassel's mostly awesome starting debut was his league-high 47 sacks taken. The Patriots' offensive line is widely regarded as among the best in the league (although it's really closer to above average), so Cassel gets knocked as a sack waiting to happen. That, perhaps, could further the idea that Cassel was a one-year wonder -- a product of Randy Moss and the Patriots' quarterback-friendly system -- and that he'll struggle in his new digs.
The good news is Chiefs coach Todd Haley's system is also passer-friendly, and like New England's, very shotgun-happy. The Chiefs' offensive line is also apparently on the rise.
I'm not saying the Chiefs' line is better than New England's, but the Football Outsiders reveal that Kansas City held up better than one would've guessed during a miserable 2008 season. The unit is broken down in the Kansas City Star's Chiefs blog.
Theoretically, the Chiefs would've given up more sacks in '08 because they attempted 541 passes, their second most since the Dick Vermeil era and the ninth most in the NFL. But they cut their sacks allowed at every position save center and only left guard (Brian Waters) committed more penalties (1 in '07, 2 in '08). Their directional rushing rank also improved significantly at left tackle (Branden Albert), left guard, and right tackle (Damion McIntosh). They were a little worse at center and stayed the same at right guard.
Continue reading "Chiefs Offensive Line: Underrated?" »
Tiffany Simons and I are back on the Fantasy Fix beat with a look back at what has changed among quarterbacks in the offseason. We'll post one video-per-week for about a month, then do a ton of season previews and switch to twice a week, plus the weekly Sunday live show. (And possibly more fun stuff we're working on.)
In this one, we talk Brady, Eli, Romo, and more. (I'm going Brady first among quarterbacks if he has a good camp.) A couple notes on the video:
1. I was told after the video no more short sleeves. Probably doing me a favor since there is no reason to show off my 12-year-old girl sized arms.
2. As with a lot of taped Fix material, especially as we get people back up to speed, the content will cover material you guys mostly know. (Although there will be rankings in there.) The average Pancake Blocks reader is a more sophisticated fantasy player than our average NBC viewer.
3. The average NBC viewer, however, has been proven to enjoy a more well adjusted life. And they are better dressed.
4. Most of you didn't read past the words "Tiffany Simons" and just clicked the thing, which is fine by me.
July 14, 2009
In an early Tuesday snapshot of the Patriots' offensive backfield, nocturnal beat reporter Mike Reiss pointed out that Kevin Faulk has played more snaps than any New England tailback over the last two seasons. That, of course, hasn't led to much fantasy value. Injuries to Laurence Maroney and Sammy Morris helped Faulk finish as the RB27 overall in 2008, but previous to then he hadn't been higher than RB34 since 2000.
In a mailbag posted Tuesday afternoon, the presumably coffee-chugging Reiss predicted that newly signed Fred Taylor would finish second on the team in snaps this year.
Here is a rundown of the Patriots' depth chart, along with Average Draft Position (ADP):
Continue reading "Patriots Backfield is a Muddled Mess" »
July 13, 2009
Josh Morgan is directly in the mix to be Rotoworld's top 2009 prospect
I'm in the process of constructing the "Prospects" report for the 2009 Rotoworld Draft Guide. I've made a preliminary list of potential prospects, and plan to end with a Top 25. I'm hoping to get some opinions on who should be in the top five or ten. The criteria to be a "prospect" is as follows:
1. Cannot be rookies. Rookies are already over-analyzed. We're looking for second- to fourth-year players with chances to make a significant impact in fantasy.
2. Must be 26 or younger. I loosened this by one year (last year's list excluded anyone over 25) to expand the list of players to choose from.
3. Must play a fantasy relevant position. This is obvious enough. We're not looking at offensive linemen.
4. Must have a clear opportunity to make an impact this year due to aging or injured vets in front of him, starting or key situational holes to fill, or be involved in a competition. No guys buried on their team's depth charts or unlikely to make the final roster.
5.There must be reason to believe that these guys can play. Knowing college backgrounds helps here.
Continue reading "2009 "Prospects" List for Draft Guide" »
July 12, 2009
The second magazine is a wrap. As usual, I like the second one better than the first. There is more time to fine-tune things; it's not as rushed. Thanks go out to all the awesome guys (and girl) at Beckett Media down in Dallas. The place feels like my second home after going there for six years, especially because of the awesome people there like Mike Obert, Tim Trout, Tracy Hackler, Brad Hastedt, Brett Robertson, and more. Also: we need a TopGolf in NYC!
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Last week, I went over the minor changes I made for the second magazine at quarterback, while Silva took a look at ch-ch-changes at the IDP positions. Now let's take a look at running back moves.
1. Brandon Jacobs is now ahead of LaDainian Tomlinson and Brian Westbrook in non-PPR leagues. Tomlinson didn't really move, Jacobs and Westbrook just flipped spots.
It appears I'm down on LT2 and Westbrook this year more than your average analyst. You can read the magazine or draft guide for why, but essentially we hang on to our fantasy heroes too long. I still see them as second round picks, higher for Westy in PPR, but there are too many better (and cheaper) bets that aren't clearly on the decline.
This move essentially didn't pass the "What would I do?" test. Push comes to shove, I wouldn't draft Tomlinson ahead of Jacobs, so I can't rank him that way.
2. Marshawn Lynch passed Derrick Ward. I wrote an article called lessons learned, talking about things to take from previous seasons. One is that we overrate the importance of early season suspensions in drafts. Lynch will be a great player to own for the weeks that matter in fantasy. Be confident you can draft someone to fill in for him in the meantime. (Fred Jackson is a fine option.)
Continue reading "Running Back Moves: Jacobs over LT2" »
July 09, 2009
In the third and final part of this IDP shakeup series, we examine some changes made in the defensive back rankings:
1. Dolphins FS Gibril Wilson dropped from DB2 to DB20. Wilson has played both the free (Giants) and strong (Raiders) sides in his career. After the Fins paid him $27.5 million in March, it was somewhat natural to assume Wilson would stay at the position he played last (with Oakland) and led all NFL defensive backs in tackles. Wilson, however, is going to play center field and line up off the line of scrimmage. Yeremiah Bell will stay at strong safety and is the better bet for production. All isn't lost for Wilson, but we can't have him just behind No. 1 DB Eric Weddle when he's playing a less IDP-friendly position. This, of course, necessitated Bell's move up from DB9 to DB4. The Dolphins won't have two 100-tackle safeties, and Bell is the better target.
Continue reading "Mag Ranks: IDP Shakeup at Defensive Back" »
July 08, 2009
Patrick Willis should be the first linebacker off the board in any Individual Defensive Player (IDP) format. I tend to draft defensive linemen earlier than linebackers due to position scarcity, but there's no doubt about the No. 1 LB. After him, though, it gets a lot less certain.
Continuing our IDP shakeup series in the 2009 Rotoworld Draft Guide, we'll move on to linebacker changes.
1. Texans OLB Zach Diles dropped from the LB15 overall to the LB62. This is because Diles is no longer assured of a starting job. A former undrafted free agent, Diles opened 2008 as Houston's starting strong-side linebacker. Through nine weeks, he was leading the Texans in tackles (ahead of even Pro Bowl middle 'backer DeMeco Ryans) before falling victim to a fractured tibia. Diles is recovered, but the Texans drafted Brian Cushing in the first round and will start him at SAM. Diles and Xavier Adibi (no pushover) will battle on the weak side. The winner could approach 100 tackles, but Adibi's cover skills may give him the edge.
2. Steelers ILB Lawrence Timmons catapulted from the LB33 to LB21. Even this rank may be conservative for Pittsburgh's prime breakout candidate. While Timmons is "competing" for tackles with highly productive fellow inside man James Farrior, it's obvious who possesses more big-play ability. Timmons registered an amazing five sacks, 65 tackles, and a fumble forced despite being a nickel backup behind Farrior and Larry Foote last year. With Foote gone to Detroit, Timmons will be an every-down player. There's nothing not to like here.
Continue reading "More IDP Shakeup: T-T-Timmons Time" »
July 07, 2009
Matt "don't call me Schaub" Schauf did the rankings and profiles for Individual Defensive Players (IDPs) in the 2009 Fantasy Draft Guide. He submitted those in early spring. Some things have obviously changed since then (and there naturally is some difference of opinion), so I spent yesterday updating the defensive linemen, linebackers, and DBs.
Some notable changes in The Defensive Line Ranks:
1. Seahawks RE Darryl Tapp dropped from DL5 to DL14. Tapp has exhibited disruptive ability with 13 sacks and seven forced fumbles over the last two seasons. However, Seattle revealed that it plans to use newly acquired Cory Redding at end on running downs, and Patrick Kerney, 2008 first-round pick Lawrence Jackson, and big-bodied end Baraka Atkins return at the position. That's a formula for rotation, and both Jackson and Redding project as better run stuffers than the undersized Tapp. Tapp could wind up as a nickel end, making him too risky to keep in the top five. He'll still score plenty in big-play leagues.
2. Packers DE Aaron Kampman's position switched to linebacker (DL7 to LB69). That's an ugly drop and Kampman dynasty owners won't like it. But it's the reality of IDP. When defenses transition from 4-3 to 3-4 schemes, the linemen almost always suffer. Kampman's stat projection [71 tackles (51 solo) and 7 sacks] is still generous, but it's rare for 3-4 outside linebackers not named DeMarcus Ware or James Harrison to compete with 4-3 'backers or 3-4 ILBs in most IDP leagues.
Continue reading "Shakeup in the IDPs: Kampman to LB" »
July 06, 2009
Before the McNair news hit, I was all set to write a post Saturday about the changes I made in our quarterback rankings for the second magazine. So here's that post, albeit a little delayed.
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I do less tweaking of projections between May and August than I used to. Maybe it's laziness, but I'd like to think it's an evolution towards realizing very little that has happened in minicamp season is impactful. I've looked at changes we've made in previous years, and it hasn't helped the final product. Sometimes you stare at the same rankings so long that you change them just for the sake of it.
Continue reading "Second Mag QB Projections Barely Move" »
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