September 6, 2011
Mike McCarthy's Packers kick off the NFL season against the Saints Thursday night.
New Orleans @ Green Bay
Get your Saints and Packers going on Thursday night. The 47.5-point over-under is the highest of Week 1. ... Aaron Rodgers is primed to start fast after a second straight assassin-like August. In the past two preseasons combined, Rodgers has completed 78-of-100 passes for 865 yards, 10 touchdowns, and no interceptions. The Saints return all four secondary starters from last year's top-four pass defense, but are without suspended RE Will Smith and have slowly nursed back RCB Tracy Porter from knee surgery. In the projected shootout, Rodgers is a no-brainer top-two QB play. ... If you own Greg Jennings, you probably drafted him in the second round. Start him, but you'll be disappointed over the course of the year with large drops in touchdowns and yards. ... Jermichael Finley will destroy coverage liability SS Roman Harper. Lock in Finley.
The writing was on the wall this preseason, when Ryan Grant and James Starks rotated with the first-team offense. The Packers announced Monday that their Week 1 blueprint is to give Grant and Starks equal carries, leading either to a "hot hand" situation or "working combination" (i.e. RBBC). While neither back can be counted on to exceed 15 attempts Thursday, the plan is an indirect nod to Starks. Grant entered camp as the starter, was outplayed by Starks, and has now lost his lead back role. Starks is only a low-end RB2/flex against an improved Saints defense, but he is the favorite to lead Green Bay in touches this year. ... James Jones was silent in the preseason and is coming off a knee injury, so he may struggle for snaps out of the chute. Behind Jennings and Finley, Jordy Nelson and Donald Driver are neck and neck for third in the targets pecking order.
Continue reading "Opening Night Matchup: Saints @ Packers" »
July 9, 2011
The NFL owners locked out the players on March 12, immediately making the league's Personal Conduct Policy unenforceable. According to league spokesman Greg Aiello, the NFL still plans to discipline conduct that occurred during the lockout and is deemed "detrimental to the league."
There are a lot of reasons why that will prove very difficult. But, with the help of Profootballtalk.com's Police Blotter page, we decided to recall the arrests by team in this space. So at the very least you'll know whether your 2011 fantasy pick was jailed during the lockout.
These law breakers may or may not be subject post-lockout discipline.
And feel free to let us know if we've missed anyone.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS - 4
3/30 - Cornerback Aqib Talib surrendered to police on second-degree felony charges of assault with a deadly weapon stemming from a March 21 incident. Talib is accused of firing shots at his sister's boyfriend. On June 6, ESPN's Adam Schefter wrote that he's heard Talib "could have a pretty good case." The trial isn't scheduled to occur until March 26 of 2012.
4/20 - Nope, not a weed arrest. Bucs assistant to the head coach Jayson Kaiser was arrested for DUI shortly after midnight. He was pulled over for driving with his lights off, denied drinking, and refused a breathalyzer despite "slurred speech, bloodshot eyes, and smelling like alcohol."
5/9 - Defensive End Alex Magee was arrested for allegedly possessing marijuana and driving with expired tags. Magee became the fourth member of the Bucs' organization to be arrested in a matter of just over two months. But it gets worse.
6/? - The exact date of Bucs Luxury Suite Sales Manager Brian Weiss' arrest isn't known. But the details are gross. Weiss was one of 32 men charged with involvement in a Florida internet plot to engage in sexual activity with girls ranging from ages 9-14. The charges against Weiss are "traveling to meet a minor for sex, obscene communication using a computer, and lewd and lascivious behavior." Undercover police exposed the illegal activity by posing as underage girls online. Weiss, fired shortly thereafter, became the fifth member of the Bucs' organization to be arrested in just over three months.
Note - The others are Magee, Talib, Kaiser, and Director of Pro Scouting Shelton Quarles (DUI, March 4). Former Bucs assistant coach Chris Mosley was also arrested in September of 2010 for DUI. Yet another Bucs DUI arrest occurred last November when Wide Receiver Mike Williams was booked for the offense. Williams' charge was later dropped.
To boot, Linebacker Geno Hayes was arrested for misdemeanor trespassing last December, and Tight End Jerramy Stevens for several drug charges last October.
TENNESSEE TITANS - 3
4/12 - Wide Receiver Kenny Britt was arrested on three counts following a car chase in New Jersey on the afternoon of Tuesday, April 12. He was charged with felony eluding police, lying to an officer, and obstructing a governmental function. Marijuana was also found in the car, but Britt was lucky enough to have the charges reduced to finable offenses.
6/8 - On the same day his aforementioned felony charge was dropped, Britt was booked again on two counts of resisting narcotics officers and one count of evidence tampering for allegedly crushing a marijuana cigarette. He "pushed away from officers and wouldn't submit to handcuffs," although no formal drug charge was pursued. These were the fifth and sixth arrests of Britt's NFL career. Once again, the latest charges were all downgraded to "disorderly person" offenses.
6/29 - Britt surrendered to Tennessee police on multiple outstanding misdemeanor warrants stemming from allegations that he made "inaccurate statements" on his drivers licence application. He was charged, fingerprinted, and booked. Britt has pending court appearances on July 12 and July 18.
OAKLAND RAIDERS - 2
3/17 - Offensive Tackle Mario Henderson was arrested in Florida on charges of carrying a concealed firearm. He admitted to the offense only after police found the gun next to his seat in his vehicle. Henderson does not have a gun license. His contract will expire after the lockout, and the arrest doesn't figure to help his market value.
4/3 - Wide Receiver Louis Murphy was booked in Florida for possession of Viagra without a prescription, non-violent resisting arrest, and failure to obey an officer. All three charges are misdemeanors. Police found 11 Viagra pills in Murphy's car. He had ripped off the label “because he did not want his girlfriend to know he had a prescription for it." (And his performance is artificial.)
Note - Running back Michael Bush, a restricted free agent, was arrested for drunk driving on February 12 in Jeffersonville, Kentucky. This offense occurred one month previous to the lockout. Bush has no prior history of off-field issues and figures to avoid significant NFL discipline.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES - 2
3/26 - Offensive Tackle Jason Peters was pinched in Shreveport, Louisiana for "blaring music and resisting arrest." He refused officers' overtures when they asked for identification, and was cited for peace disturbance and charged with resisting.
6/19 - Linebacker Akeem Jordan was arrested in Harrisonburg, Virginia on misdemeanor assault and battery charges after an alleged incident in a parking lot. Details remain murky, but the alleged victim suffered non-life-threatening injuries and Jordan turned himself in "without any issues," a police spokeswoman confirmed.
Note - Peters' fellow Offensive Tackle, King Dunlap, was arrested on March 4 for reckless driving and disorderly conduct in Nashville, Tennessee. Police alleged that Dunlap drove onto a sidewalk in front of Bridgestone Arena, home to the SEC women's basketball tournament. Dunlap refused to move because he was trying to pick up his father, who uses a wheelchair. It sounds like Dunlap has a good case. This arrest occurred eight days before the lockout.
GREEN BAY PACKERS - 2
3/25 - Defensive End Johnny Jolly. missed the 2010 season due to a suspension for (allegedly) being a prominent member of the Houston drug trade from 2006 through 2008. He was arrested again on March 25 for felony codeine possession when police discovered 600 grams of "Sizzurp" in his vehicle following a traffic stop. The charge was subsequently dropped in a plea deal, and Jolly will somehow avoid prison time altogether. He remains under indefinite NFL suspension.
6/16 - Cornerback Brandon Underwood was arrested on the same night the Packers accepted their Super Bowl rings for misdemeanor disorderly conduct following an alleged domestic dispute with his wife. Underwood allegedly ripped off his wife's necklace, dragged her out of a car, and threw her to the ground. Wife Brandie later told a court that the incident was overblown. "I told police I did not want them to arrest him," said Brandie Underwood. "He's never harmed me in any way, shape or form." Brandie filed for divorce in May.
Continue reading "Bucs Lead Charge in Lockout Arrests" »
June 14, 2011
Yeah, so this lockout is getting beyond boring. We're still cranking out our draft guide, but there just isn't a lot of news otherwise.
So we may as well create some content out of thin air.
On Tuesday, we'll unveil the first in our series of the Top-25 players at each position in fantasy leagues since 1995. This isn't some scientific list. We checked out the stats, focused especially on top-five and top-ten finishes, and then went with our gut.
Continue reading "Top 25 Fantasy Quarterbacks of the last 15 years" »
June 13, 2011
Jermichael Finley is Silva's top-ranked fantasy tight end.
The 2011 fantasy tight end class is deeper than ever. There are as many as 7-10 locks for legitimate TE1 production, plus a number of breakout candidates such as Jimmy Graham, Jared Cook, and Jermaine Gresham. Tony Moeaki and Rob Housler are promising youngsters. Dustin Keller could make a big leap with free agent Braylon Edwards likely to depart New York.
The Patriots' Gronkowski-Hernandez duo presents a dilemma because their week-to-week value is dependent on game planning. One of them can be silent in a given game while the other dominates as the league's top tight end scorer for that week. At least one is likely to finish as a top-10 tight end, but I just barely left them out because they project to be maddeningly inconsistent and unpredictable. Who's going to be more productive? Your guess is as good as ours.
Ultimately, though, there are five elite tight ends unquestionably at the top. Let's have a look:
The Tight Ends
Continue reading "Preliminary 2011 Re-Draft Ranks: TEs" »
June 9, 2011
"60 Minutes" is comfortably in Silva's top-ten receivers
These were last year's standard-league fantasy rankings for wide receivers: 1) Brandon Lloyd 2) Dwayne Bowe 3) Roddy White 4) Greg Jennings 5) Mike Wallace 6) Calvin Johnson 7) Reggie Wayne 8) Hakeem Nicks 9) Andre Johnson 10) Steve Johnson.
Receiver production is heavily, heavily dependent on targets. Save the ridiculously talented Mike "60 Minutes" Wallace, every wideout who finished in the top ten in fantasy points last year finished in the top 15 in passes thrown their way. It may seem obvious, but what we're shooting for in these rankings is wide receivers who not only dominate on the field, but dominate the attention of their quarterbacks.
The Wide Receivers
Continue reading "Preliminary 2011 Re-Draft Ranks: WRs" »
June 8, 2011
As you probably recall, Jamaal Charles' preseason fantasy ranking was a point of major contention on this blog last year. Some readers argued that Rotoworld was overrating Charles because his piping-hot finish to the 2009 season came against weak defenses, Thomas Jones was better than Charles, and rookie slot receiver Dexter McCluster would cut into Charles' production.
In retrospect, we didn't have Charles high enough. He finished the 2010 season as the No. 4 fantasy back despite only six starts and a relatively meager 230 carries. We ranked Charles ninth at this time last year.
Charles' carries project to leap this season. Coach Todd Haley expects Charles to "take the next step" and "be ready for more carries" while Thomas Jones slims down after averaging an embarrassing 2.67 yards per rush attempt in Kansas City's last five games. The plan is to keep 33-year-old Jones fresh in the change-of-pace role, with Charles becoming the feature back.
Remember, these are just my rankings. Not Rosenthal or Wesseling's:
The Running Backs
Continue reading "Preliminary 2011 Re-Draft Ranks: RBs" »
June 7, 2011
Vick is the top-ranked fantasy quarterback for 2011.
The Rotoworld football crew will huddle Thursday afternoon for a fantasy draft guide brainstorming session. This year's projections are delayed for obvious reasons, but there will be a draft guide, and our football coverage remains uninterrupted.
For the past couple of weeks, Wesseling, Rosenthal, and I have been putting together our individual fantasy rankings. These ranks will be combined in a final product, which will stay updated throughout the free agency period. At this point, we expect a Collective Bargaining Agreement to be finalized between late June and August.
For the rest of the week, I'll be rolling out my personal rankings on Pancake Blocks. Realize that these are my rankings only and do not reflect the opinions of Gregg and Chris.
The Quarterbacks
Continue reading "Preliminary 2011 Re-Draft Ranks: QBs" »
May 27, 2011
The usual start of training camps is under two months away. We have no idea if 16 games will be played, but are confident there will be an NFL season in some form.
And that means fantasy football will continue in 2011.
Over the course of the next several days, I'll document live a Dynasty League draft in this space. I traded my first-round pick last year, but have two second-rounders. This draft began on Friday morning.
It's a PPR league with 12 owners. We keep as many members of our 40-man rosters as we want, and are able to draft rookies as well as free agents available on the waiver wire.
FIRST ROUND
1.1. Falcons WR Julio Jones
1.2. Saints RB Mark Ingram
1.3. Bengals WR A.J. Green
1.4. Dolphins RB Daniel Thomas
1.5. Browns WR Greg Little
1.6. Cardinals RB Ryan Williams
1.7. Lions RB Mikel Leshoure
1.8. Chiefs WR Jonathan Baldwin
1.9. Jets RB Bilal Powell
1.10. Colts RB Delone Carter
1.11. Rotoworld (via trade with Fantasy Sharks) - Redskins RB Roy Helu
1.12. Panthers QB Cam Newton
UPDATE: With RotoExperts taking their time at No. 6 overall, I've begun trade talks with Matt Williamson of ESPN Scouts Inc. Williamson won the league as a first-timer last year -- his first experience ever with a dynasty league -- although he doesn't have a single draft pick this year in the first or second round.
Williamson is loaded with running backs, owning Jamaal Charles, Steven Jackson, and Ahmad Bradshaw. He also has Tashard Choice, Justin Forsett, and Ricky Williams.
He expressed interest in Bernard Scott. I want Jamaal Charles. My standing offer is Scott, Greg Jennings OR Vincent Jackson, my pick at 2.3, and my 2012 first-round pick for Charles. Let me know what you think in the comments.
UPDATE II: Williamson wants Calvin Johnson.
UPDATE III: Here is a link to all the rosters in the league. And here is a link to the "official" draft page.
UPDATE IV: Commenter Dustin scoured the league's rosters and discovered that one in particular, owned by FFXtreme, is short on receivers (A declining Reggie Wayne is WR1, Brandon Lloyd WR2, Jerome Simpson/Anthony Armstrong WR3) but rich in running backs (Arian Foster, Chris Johnson, Michael Turner). My predicament is the opposite. So I've proposed FFXtreme the following trade:
I get:
Foster
He gets:
Greg Jennings
Picks 2.3 & 2.12
Now let's see if he bites.
UPDATE V: I've received the following offer from Fantasy Sharks:
I get:
Picks 1.11, 7.2, 8.2 this year
He gets:
My 2012 first-round pick.
Let me know whether I should consider it in the comments.
UPDATE VI: My initial reaction to Fantasy Sharks' trade proposal for my 2012 first-round pick was negative. I thought Roy Helu would go before Carter and Powell because, well, Helu is more talented than both and has the clearest path to playing time. I probably would've taken Helu ahead of Baldwin, not only because my roster is rich on receivers, but because Helu's fantasy ceiling is higher.
I accepted the trade because I believe in Roy Helu. I studied him as much as any player leading up to the draft, and considered him the fourth best running back in the 2011 class. Shanahan backfields can be unpredictable, but in my opinion Helu is easily the best tailback talent in D.C. and will win the lead back job early in the season, if not before it.
Jamaal Charles remains in the crosshairs, however.
UPDATE VII: Okay, I just got a flurry of trade action, and executed two deals, one with Pro Football Focus and one with ESPN/Scouts Inc.'s Matt Williamson. Here's the sum of both deals. (More in the morning.):
I gave up:
Greg Jennings
Kevin Kolb
Bernard Scott
Joe McKnight
Chris Ivory
Pick 2.12
I received:
Steven Jackson
Matt Schaub
Robert Meachem
Rex Grossman (will be dropped)
Continue reading "In-Progress Dynasty League Draft" »
May 13, 2011
Marques Colston had another microfracture knee surgery.
Cause for Concern
1. Marques Colston, Saints
Chris Wesseling was working the Rotoworld news page when word of Colston's latest microfracture surgery broke Thursday afternoon. Wesseling noted that this is Colston's second microfracture procedure in the last three offseasons, each affecting a different knee. It's his fifth knee surgery as an NFL player. This blog post from 2009 basically forecasted Colston's continued future knee problems after his initial microfracture operation. We've seen too many wide receivers' careers shortened by bad knees (Javon Walker, Torry Holt, Antonio Bryant, Marvin Harrison, David Boston, etc.) to be especially optimistic about Colston in 2011 or beyond.
2. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars
Jones-Drew played the 2010 season with a torn right meniscus, which by the end of the year resulted in a bone-on-bone condition in the joint. Jones-Drew underwent an extensive knee surgery on January 5 and, against Dr. James Andrews' orders, resumed running in early April. (Andrews recommended MJD not run until May.) While Jones-Drew deserves credit for gutting out most of last season on a bum wheel, the long-term effects may be costly. We'll be avoiding him in the first round of fantasy drafts.
Continue reading "Offseason Medical Concerns" »
February 18, 2011
DeMarco Murray's college yards-per-carry average was unimpressive.
From an entirely statistical perspective, NFL Network's Mike Mayock has discussed the desire to see a running back average five to six yards per carry at the college level when evaluating that player's pro prospects. Plenty of factors outside a player's control (line, system, competition) impact yards per carry, but the fundamental idea is pretty straightforward. Running backs who dominate in college are more likely to succeed in the pros, and YPC average is the best statistical measurement of a running back's down-to-down effectiveness when you have a large sample size.
Some Background
Some running backs recently drafted in rounds one through four, and their college career yards-per-carry averages:
DeAngelo Williams, Memphis - 6.28
Jamaal Charles, Texas - 6.24
Shonn Greene, Iowa - 5.93
Leon Washington, Florida State - 5.88
Michael Bush, Louisville - 5.66
Maurice Jones-Drew, UCLA - 5.55
Knowshon Moreno, Georgia - 5.49
Ray Rice, Rutgers - 5.41
Brandon Jackson, Nebraska - 4.92
Andre Brown, NC State - 4.85
Kenny Irons, Auburn - 4.81
Lorenzo Booker, Florida State - 4.73
Brian Calhoun, Wisconsin - 4.70
Chris Perry, Michigan - 4.56
Brian Leonard, Rutgers - 4.08
Chris Henry, Arizona - 3.37
Not a Rule
This isn't a study by Advanced NFL Stats; there are plenty of exceptions to Mayock's theory. Chris Johnson averaged 4.77 yards per carry in his college career, although he did explode to 6.03 as a senior. LeSean McCoy, 19 and 20 years old during his two years at Pitt, averaged 4.82. Arian Foster didn't take his college career seriously, averaging 4.56 at Tennessee. He paid for it on draft day. On the flip side, Laurence Maroney (5.65) and Tony Hunt (5.18) ripped up the Big Ten only to bust in the pros.
So just understand that running backs' college yards-per-carry averages don't dictate NFL success. This isn't a rule. It's a loose guideline worth a look.
The 2011 Running Back Class
These are running backs considered worthy or at least borderline worthy of draft selections in April, ranked in order of career yards-per-carry average.
* denotes underclassman
The Gamebreakers
Taiwan Jones*, Eastern Washington - 7.90
Alex Green, Hawaii - 7.12
Vai Taua, Nevada - 6.45
Mikel Leshoure*, Illinois - 6.03
Comments: Jones did his damage in FCS (the old D-IAA), but the guy is a playmaker. Given a second- to third-round grade by the NFL Draft Advisory Committee, the 2010 Big Sky MVP has drawn comparisons to Brian Westbrook. ... Leshoure's average is the most impressive of this group because he did it against top competition behind a weak offensive line. He's a potential first-round pick. ... Green looked good at the East-West Shrine Game following an early fumble. He's not afraid of contact. ... Taua is a late-round prospect. In addition to his ridiculous YPC, he scored 52 touchdowns in his final three seasons at Nevada.
Continue reading "College Backs and Yards Per Carry" »
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