November 19, 2009
 Keenan Burton wasn't talented enough to be a fantasy factor, but Brandon Gibson is.
Brandon Gibson, Ramses Barden, Patrick Turner and Devin Aromashodu all have talent. They’re young, relatively unknown receivers that are worth keeping on the radar in dynasty leagues.
There’s one difference: Gibson actually is getting an opportunity to play. Now.
Gibson is locked in as the Rams’ starting split end for the rest of the season thanks to Keenan Burton’s season-ending knee injury (and Laurent Robinson's). Donnie Avery will start opposite him and Danny Amendola will be in the slot.
Gibson had seven catches for 93 yards and led the team in targets in his debut.
“For him to come in after Keenan got hurt and play as well as he did is impressive, rookie or no rookie," Marc Bulger said, per the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. "I think we found a really good receiver there."
So if Gibson really can play, why didn’t he go until the sixth round of the 2009 draft? First of all, he would have gone much higher if he left Washington State as a junior. But he stuck around for a miserable senior season on a miserable team and had a miserable year.
Then, he pulled his hamstring in the practices leading up to the Senior Bowl and wasn’t able to play in the game. He also missed the agility tests at the Combine and at Washington State’s pro day. So Gibson went tumbling down draft boards before the Eagles, who didn’t really need a receiver, said they can’t pass on his talent and took him with the 194th overall pick.
Maybe I’m getting a little too excited about a rookie on a bad team. But the bottom line is Gibson has an opportunity right now and I’m stashing him and/or playing him until we see how this develops. The Rams play the Texans (No. 17 vs. pass) and Cardinals (No. 30 vs. pass) in Weeks 15 and 16.
November 18, 2009
Chad Henne will remain a game manager on Thursday night
The Dolphins' offense won't change much despite Ronnie Brown's season-ending Lisfranc fracture. Ricky Williams lacks Brown's first-step burst and shiftiness, but is plenty experienced as the Wildcat Triggerman and was a decorated high school shortstop. He can throw.
The most likely adjustment, as Gregg Rosenthal pointed out Wednesday night on Twitter, is the probable increase of rookie QB Pat White's usage. White won't suddenly become a fantasy factor, but the Dolphins' offense won't suddenly tank, either.
With that out of the way, let's get to Thursday night's Panthers-Dolphins matchup:
This game sets up as a decidedly run-heavy affair. Both teams rank in the top three in rushing attempts and have bottom-eight passing attacks. Carolina seemingly has an edge at home after Miami lost Ronnie Brown for the year, but new Dolphins every-down back Ricky Williams has been even more effective per play. Carolina is also highly suspectible to the run, ranking 25th in rush defense and allowing an NFL sixth-worst 4.6 YPC. Not helping the Panthers: WLB Thomas Davis (torn ACL) went on I.R. in Week 9, All-Pro DE Julius Peppers can't play on early downs due to a broken hand, and DT Damione Lewis (shoulder) is questionable. The Dolphins get back mauling RG Justin Smiley from injury, so consider Williams a legit RB1 in this very favorable matchup.
Miami will again ask Chad Henne to "game manage," rather than test the Panthers' No. 4 pass defense. While Henne has executed the role successfully with just one turnover in his last three games, this isn't a recipe for even two-QB league fantasy production. He's thrown only two TDs and is averaging 166 passing yards a game over the same span...Davone Bess has seemingly emerged as Henne's go-to guy with 10 catches for 128 yards in his last two efforts, but his lack of big-play ability and the Dolphins' four-receiver rotation kills his upside. Bess is only a borderline WR3 in PPR leagues...Ted Ginn Jr. started last week, but was benched after an early drop. Avoid Dolphins wideouts after Bess, and their tight ends. Anthony Fasano (hip) won't play.
Continue reading "Thursday Night Matchup: MIA @ CAR" »
What happens when a team that despises running the ball gets behind early in a game? Target report madness.
We don’t have to give the Eagles any more reason to throw. Third-and-1 has been a passing down for Andy Reid for the last five seasons. But now that Brian Westbrook is out indefinitely and the Eagles’ defense is getting leakier by the game, Donovan McNabb is going to be chucking.
So when someone like DeSean Jackson gets an absurd 16 targets and Jason Avant goes for 156 yards in Week 10, eyebrows should be raised. Even in the Eagles’ “spread it around style,” target report madness can ensue.
Anyway, on to this week’s highlights. Here are four pass-catching situations that caught our eye in Week 10:
Remember that for a complete target report, plus all the tools you need for Week 11, check out the Season Pass.
RAMS
Steven Jackson: 13
Brandon Gibson: 9
Donnie Avery: 6
Randy McMichael: 5
Daniel Fells: 3
Danny Amendola: 2
Keenan Burton: 1
Billy Bajema: 1
Maybe I’m too pumped up about Brandon Gibson, but this guy has me excited. He’s going to start the rest of the way and have every opportunity to succeed. Amendola is strictly a slot guy and Donnie Avery can stretch the field. It just feels right.
Continue reading "Week 10 Target Report highlights" »
November 17, 2009
Every so often, I like to torture myself by going back to draft results and seeing what I could/should have done differently.
Today, I feel like sharing that with you. So at the risk of annoying everyone with a “We don’t care about your team” post, here’s a look back at my draft results from two leagues. One has worked out very well and one has gone straight to hell.
* This was the 10-team SOFA Industry Draft I represented Rotoworld in. It’s PPR but otherwise standard scoring. It was an online draft. We start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX, 1 K, 1 D.
The knowledge level of the owners was obviously very strong.
My team is 5-5 but that’s misleading. I’m dead last in points and it’s been a real struggle.
I had the first pick.
1.1 – Adrian Peterson: Chris Johnson, Maurice Jones-Drew and Ray Rice all have more points than All Day. Still don’t regret the pick and he’s definitely not the reason I’m scuffling around.
2.10 – Marques Colston: It was a bad pick. The Saints spread it around style has hurt Colston and made him the No. 14 WR in this format. Could have and should have taken Roddy White or Wes Welker.
Continue reading "Looking back at two drafts" »
News came screaming out of left field this afternoon that Dwayne Bowe has been suspended four games for violating the NFL’s policy on performance-enhancing substances.
Wow. Didn’t see that one coming. As a Bowe owner in couple leagues, it’s pretty solid straight right hand to the jaw. It’s not a knockout blow as Bowe was ranked just 26th among fantasy wideouts in non-PPR leagues this season. But it still hurts.
Apparently, Bowe went all soccer mom on us and put on 30 pounds this offseason. That probably explains why he was in Todd Haley’s doghouse earlier in the year. Here’s the scoop from Kansas City Star beat writer Kent Babb:
“He plays a position that hinges sometimes on a swing of three or four pounds, and Bowe had packed on 10 times that amount of weight in only a few months. Haley demoted Bowe, bullied him, disparaged him, embarrassed him. Somehow, it worked. Or seemed to. Bowe lost the weight and became the chiseled wideout that Haley envisioned so many months ago. It really didn't take that long, either.”
So it looks like Bowe used PEDs to lose that weight. Allegedly, of course.
Bowe is eligible to return in Week 15. That’s the first week of the fantasy playoffs for me. Will Haley just throw him right back into the lineup in his first game back? Will he start? Will he get enough targets to be used? Should we keep him on our rosters?
Even though Haley doesn’t seem like the very forgiving type, I’m going to hang onto Bowe because the rosters are pretty deep. The Chiefs play the Browns in Week 15, so in the off chance Haley says, “He’s paid his dues, we’re going to give him 60 snaps in his first game back,” I can use him. If not, I won’t.
Considering the Chiefs play the Bengals outstanding corner duo of Leon Hall and Jonathan Joseph in Week 16, Bowe will probably be on my bench that week.
So consider your roster size and what you need down the stretch if you own Bowe. We’re really just hoping against hope for one good week at this point.
* Also, click here for the player news pages for Lance Long and Chris Chambers for Chris Wesseling’s take on the short-term effects of Bowe’s suspension.
November 15, 2009
Week 10 proved to be a crazy week, mostly because of a rash of key injuries. We’ll touch on some of those briefly here as well as all the surprising stat lines.
Basically, this is a list of guys that I looked at their numbers and said “Really? Why?”
THE GOOD
Jason Snelling – 92 total yards, 1 TD: With Michael Turner reportedly suffering a high ankle sprain, Snelling is a must own.
Muhsin Muhammad – Six catches, 91 yards: I’ll guess that this will be best game of the year.
Donnie Avery – Four catches, 67 yards, 2 TD: We knew he could do this, he just hasn’t been healthy all year. The guy makes big plays.
Brandon Gibson – Seven catches, 93 yards: He was the guy the Rams really wanted when they sent Will Witherspoon to the Eagles. Gibson is legit and is worth a look in deep leagues.
Knowshon Moreno – 18 carries, 97 yards: Correll Buckhalter only got two carries because of a first-quarter fumble. It’s unclear how long C-Buck will be in the doghouse.
Jamaal Charles – 117 total yards, 1 TD: We’ve expressed our love for him in this space before, but the best sign out of this game is that the Chiefs actually agree. He had 22 touches while Kolby Smith had nine.
Justin Forsett – 17 rushes, 123 yards, 1 TD; Five catches, 26 yards: Julius Jones has a cracked rib, which will make the speedy Forsett a very hot pickup.
Beanie Wells – 16 rushes, 85 yards, 2 TD; Two catches, 32 yards: He’s gained on Tim Hightower before, but this time feels different. He’s too good to sit and watch.
Jason Avant – Eight catches, 156 yards: He’s more of a possession receiver and this can be chalked up as a fluke of sorts. Don’t add him.
THE BAD
Bernard Berrian – Three catches, 22 yards: He’s getting phased out with the emergence of Sidney Rice. That’s what happens when your hamstring nags you all season.
Cedric Benson – Seven rushes, 22 yards: Left with a hip injury, tried to return but couldn’t. Early reports are that he’ll play next week, but that seems pretty optimistic to me. Bernard Scott is the add.
Rashard Mendenhall: 13 rushes, 36 yards: Nothing wrong with Mendy, it’s just this Bengals defense is really something.
Chad Ochocinco: Two catches, 29 yards: Chad was looking fresh and good, but the Bengals grinding out the win. He’ll be fine.
Marshawn Lynch: Nine carries, 37 yards: He’s back in an even timeshare. Avoid the situation.
Darren McFadden: Four rushes, 11 yards: Michael Bush and Justin Fargas carried the majority of the load. The Raiders obviously aren’t ready to just throw him back in the mix.
Marion Barber – Five rushes, 26 yards: The Cowboys got behind and gave up on their running game. He’ll get his 15 touches next week against the Skins.
Miles Austin – Four catches, 20 yards: Again Austin faced double teams and again he struggled. Roy Williams is liking it though as he finally got over the 100-yard mark.
Vincent Jackson – One catch, 10 yards: No, he was not hurt at all. Just a weird, fluke of a game for V-Jax. He’s still a fine WR1.
November 14, 2009
In case you haven’t been constantly refreshing our Player News Page (shame on you), here’s the latest news on all the injuries for Week 10.
*** Designates a true game-time decision.
Check that player news page about an hour before each game’s kickoff to find out the final inactives.
Also, use Gregg’s updated rankings and Evan’s matchup column for help with lineup decisions.
FALCONS at PANTHERS
- Jerious Norwood (hip) is not expected to play.
- Jason Snelling (ankle) is expected to resume his third-down duties.
*** Roddy White (knee) was limited all week. We expect him to go, but check back to be sure.
*** DeAngelo Williams (knee) is a full blown game-time decision.
- Muhsin Muhammad (knee) will almost certainly start but isn’t a fantasy option.
- Dante Rosario (knee) will play.
- Jonathan Stewart (heel) will play and is a very nice fantasy option if DeAngelo can’t go.
*** Brian Finneran (knee) is expected to sit out.
*** Michael Jenkins was a late addition to the report with an illness.
BUCS at DOLPHINS
- Antonio Bryant (knee) is out and Maurice Stovall will start.
*** Derrick Ward (knee) was a late addition to the injury report and is very questionable.
- Michael Clayton (knee) will play but isn’t a fantasy option.
*** Anthony Fasano (hip) is a game-time decision but also isn’t a fantasy option.
Continue reading "Week 10 last minute injury glance" »
November 13, 2009
There are a lot of big questions surrounding fantasy football this season. Who is that man dressed up as Cedric Benson? Will Steve Slaton ever get his job back? Is Adam Levitan the sexiest fantasy writer alive?
All are interesting questions. But perhaps the biggest question is what the heck is wrong with Matt Forte and the Bears’ running game?
Well, maybe there is nothing at all wrong with Forte. He’s not a high yards per carry (YPC) kind of back anyway. He’s not a Chris Johnson or Maurice Jones-Drew, or even a DeAngelo Williams that will bounce one to the outside and go to the house. Even last year, Forte averaged just 3.9 YPC.
Perhaps Forte just isn’t the kind of back that gets much more than what is blocked. And this year, the Bears’ revamped offensive line isn’t blocking much. That wasn’t supposed to be the case when they revamped their line around left tackle Orlando Pace.
It’s hard to see exactly what goes on in the trenches, so former NFL center and current NFL Network analyst Jamie Dukes’ words really ring true.
“What I look at is they’re a passing team now. Orlando is built to pass block. So don’t beat your head against the wall when the running game isn’t going,” Dukes told the Chicago Tribune.
After Thursday night’s 20 rushes for 41 yards performance, Forte’s YPC stands at 3.4. The Bears already benched left guard Frank Omiyale in favor of Josh Beekman a couple weeks ago. Their line is what it is and there’s virtually no chance Forte is going to snap out of his funk on the ground.
November 12, 2009
On Monday night, Miles Austin encountered something he had never seen before. It was - gasp - a double team!
Austin and the Cowboys shouldn’t have been surprised at all. The Eagles’ game plan was to take Jason Witten and Austin out of the game and dare Roy Williams and Patrick Crayton to beat them. And the Eagles were very successful at it. If Sheldon Brown doesn’t blow his assignment and bite on a Tony Romo pump fake, Austin would have very likely gone without a catch in the game.
Coach Wade Phillips downplayed Austin’s struggles, saying that the breakout receiver was open plenty. Then why was he only targeted four times all game?
“They doubled him some, which we hadn’t seen, but a lot of the time he was open. It just wasn’t the read that Tony had,” Phillips said, per the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. “I feel good about him being consistent in that he is running good routes and he is hard to cover. Hopefully, we will hit him some more times when he has those openings.”
OK, fine. But the point is that Austin better get used to seeing double teams. It comes with the territory of being a No. 1 receiver. Ask Randy Moss, Larry Fitzgerald and Andre Johnson how often a safety is rolled to their side. Austin needs to learn how to get through that, and when you go from the No. 4 receiver to the No. 1 receiver in a couple weeks, it could be a struggle.
I love Miles Austin -- he’s extremely talented and explosive after the catch and is in a great situation. But before we put him in that every week group of WR1’s, let’s see him deal with the attention for a few weeks.
Crabtree has a great matchup in San Fran
Note: This is Evan Silva's matchup breakdown for 2009's Thursday Night Football debut. The game starts at 8:20ET. As of noon Thursday, the forecast for Walsh Field at Candlestick is calling for 60-degree temperatures, only 12MPH winds, and zero chance of precipitation.
And on to the matchup:
Michael Crabtree was widely compared to Larry Fitzgerald coming out of Texas Tech, and it just so happens that Fitz ripped this same Bears secondary for 123 yards and two TDs last week. In coverage, Crabtree will see LCB Peanut Tillman -- playing with a separated shoulder -- and RCB Zackary Bowman, who's been picked on all year. Look for Crabtree's first touchdown Thursday night on NFL Network ... The Bears have been stingy against tight ends, but are dealing with injuries to their top two strong safeties (Al Afalava - shoulder, Kevin Payne - back). An obvious must-start, Vernon Davis is fantasy football's No. 1 TE.
Isaac Bruce (ankle) won't play, increasing Josh Morgan's snaps and WR3 viability. The 49ers' offense is theoretically run heavy, but OC Jimmy Raye has shown a willingness to use shotgun-spread looks since installing Alex Smith at QB. More passing means more targets for a "No. 4" option like Morgan ... 49ers slot WR Jason Hill caught his first four passes of 2009 in Week 9, going for 50 yards and two fluky touchdowns. He is a situational player, however, and will be very inconsistent ... Frank Gore is averaging 20 touches for 146 yards a game with a pair of touchdowns in his last two outings. Chicago is 21st against the run.
Continue reading "Thursday Night Matchup: CHI @ SF" »
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