November 07, 2009
A lot of questions came through the Season Pass Chat today about Justin Forsett. Of course, this was prompted by the team’s release of Edgerrin James earlier this week.
Blind logic would suggest that Forsett will assume the No. 2 role behind Julius Jones and immediately have fantasy value. I’m not so sure.
Some facts on Forsett, a seventh-round pick out of Cal in 2008:
* He is 5-foot-8 and 194 pounds. Also known as half the size of Brandon Jacobs.
* As a rookie, he was waived and signed to practice squads throughout the season. That’s never a good sign.
* The Seahawks didn’t trust Forsett to be their No. 2 back earlier in the season, signing two washed up backs in T.J. Duckett and Edge.
The point is, I’m not sure the Seahawks see Forsett as more than a strict third-down back. He can clearly excel in that role, will get a few more touches going forward and have some deeeeep PPR value, but look for Louis Rankin to fill Edgerrin’s old role. Yes, we’re talking about that big 5-7 carry per game role.
Rankin is a nice fit for the zone blocking scheme of the Seahawks and he may have more of a chance to eventually have fantasy value down the line.
Of course, with the Seahawks’ offensive line playing the way it is, none of their backs have much of a chance. Regardless, we’ll get a good look on Sunday as the hapless Lions are in town, meaning plenty of opportunities for the Seahawks to run the ball.
November 06, 2009
I use the word “sigh” way too much. And I don’t mean I exhale loudly a lot. I enjoy using the actual word, sigh, to express my emotions often.
For example: My car broke down on the Walt Whitman Bridge and I had to have a cop literally bumper car me across it. Sigh. … I have to go to my girlfriend’s friend’s wedding in New York during an NFL weekend. Sigh. … I had Lou Williams on my fantasy hoops bench and started Brandon Jennings tonight. Sigh.
Friday’s news about Anthony Gonzalez caused an extra loud sigh to come out of my mouth. I used a fifth-round pick on him in a couple leagues and have been stashing him despite some shallow rosters. I saw some late-season and fantasy playoff value in him. Forget that.
Gonzalez had a setback in practice recently, had a scope on his knee and has probably won’t be back to his normal self by year’s end, according to beat writer Phillip B. Wilson. Sigh.
Gonzalez was not a bad fifth-round pick. It just didn’t work out. And that’s the definition of sigh. Just an unfortunate turn of events that are really out of our control.
Austin Collie has 24 catches and four touchdowns in his last four games and is a solid PPR option down the stretch.
November 05, 2009
Before the season started, I wrote a column detailing the teams that I projected to have the best fantasy schedules during playoff time (Week 15 and 16). The moral of the story was don’t be the Buffalo Bills or John Stockton - don’t get second place.
Of course, some defenses have not lived up to expectations (Titans). Others have really surprised, in a good way (Broncos).
So as we start to creep closer to the fantasy playoffs, here’s an updated look at the teams with the best matchups in those two crucial weeks. Anticipated weather plays a part.
1. Cardinals - @ Lions, vs. Rams: Anquan Boldin could be a nice “buy low” as he’ll be healthy by this time.
2. Chiefs - vs. Browns, @ Bengals: We’ve talked enough about Jamaal Charles’ chances of being the starting running back by this time. How about Dwayne Bowe as a sneaky “buy low?”
3. Browns - @ Chiefs, vs. Raiders: Will it be the Jerome Harrison show by this time?
4. Colts - @ Jaguars, vs. Jets: Florida and then the dome is a great spot if the games mean anything to Peyton Manning and company.
5. Chargers - vs. Bengals, @ Titans: These games will almost certainly mean something to the annually late-blooming Chargers.
Check out today’s Dose for a more on the Jamaal Charles situation, but here are some quick thoughts on him.
* Herm Edwards never viewed Charles as an every-down back. This new Todd Haley regime says that they do.
* Charles has had more than seven carries just once in his career. That came in Week 9 last season when Larry Johnson was suspended for “Spitgate” and Kolby Smith got hurt. Charles came on and picked up 106 yards on 18 carries.
* Speaking of Kolby Smith, it’s hard for me to believe he’s ready to step right off the PUP list with that major knee injury and into a major role.
* The Chiefs offensive line is putrid, but they are getting a little healthier. Center Rudy Niswanger could be back for Sunday and tackle Branden Albert is expected to play.
* Larry Johnson is averaging 2.7 yards per carry this season. Charles is averaging 5.0 yards per carry this season.
* The Jaguars have a bottom-5 run defense and struggle against small, speedy backs like Charles.
What will Charles do with his chance Sunday? It’s impossible to say for sure because he's so unproven, but there’s no doubt he has a great opportunity.
November 03, 2009
Week 8 was a good reminder about injuries and superstars. Reggie Wayne didn’t practice on Wednesday or Thursday due to a groin injury. He was questionable and although we fully expected him to play, he was considered a game-time decision.
Of course, anytime a guy like Wayne is active, he needs to be in all lineups. It’s not like when Jerricho Cotchery is a game-time decision and we can safely bench him even if he is “up.”
So groin injury or not, Wayne popped off for a ridiculous 20 targets against the Niners. Sometimes more is made of these missed practices and “game-time decisions” than is warranted.
Anyway, on to this week’s highlights. Here are four pass-catching situations that caught our eye in Week 8:
Remember that for a complete target report, plus all the tools you need for Week 9, check out the Season Pass.
TEXANS
Andre Johnson: 10
Kevin Walter: 6
Ryan Moats: 3
James Casey: 3
David Anderson: 3
Vonta Leach: 2
Chris Brown: 2
Steve Slaton: 2
Owen Daniels: 2
Jacoby Jones: 1
Daniels went down for the season in the first quarter, so we can get a little glimpse at how the targets will shake out without him. Walter stands to be the main beneficiary and should be owned in all leagues. Casey has a knee injury of his own, but is an interesting name to keep in mind.
Continue reading "Week 8 target report highlights" »
Jamal Lewis wants to retire. Woo hoo! I am sick and tired of watching this guy ram it in there 20 times a game for three yards a carry. It's painful. If only Browns coach Eric Mangini would put Lewis out of his misery.
I think we’re all ready to see what Jerome Harrison can do as a full-time back. Shouldn’t the Browns just see what they have in Harrison over the long haul, considering their 1-7 record?
With Lewis nursing a hamstring in Weeks 3 and 4, Harrison put up these numbers:
Week 3 @ BALT: 16 carries, 52 yards; 5 catches, 33 yards
Week 4 vs. CINC: 29 carries, 121 yards, 5 catches, 31 yards
Two tough spots and two very solid performances. But as soon as Lewis got healthy, Harrison resumed his strict third-down duties. As Harrison languished on the bench, coach Eric Mangini offered up this explanation, per the Canton Repository:
Jerome Harrison “needs to work on his pass protection.”
OK, I can deal with that explanation. Harrison is just 5’9/205 and clearly is deficient in protection. But with Lewis admitting he's finished, Harrison has to get a look again. Lewis is a beaten man.
I’m keeping Harrison on my bench and waiting this thing out. Youth has to prevail in the second half of the year, no matter how stubborn Mangini is.
November 02, 2009
Owen Daniels’ season-ending knee ACL tear is going to cost his fantasy owners big time. The injury could cost Daniels even more.
Daniels is in the final year of his contract and will be a restricted free agent this spring. The Brinks truck was about to back into his garage. Now - well, we shall see. (Don't forget that Daniels has suffered two ACL tears before, once in high school and once in college.)
But forget Daniels’ problems. We have some serious problems of our own. His injury is a tough one to swallow because he was such a great value pick this season. He was the fifth tight end taken in ESPN.com live drafts, going in the seventh or eighth round.
Heading into tonight’s game, Daniels is the No. 1 tight end in fantasy. He was on pace for 80 catches, 1,038 yards and 10 touchdowns. Just a monster breakout season right down the drain.
As a Daniels owner myself in a couple leagues, I woke up today feeling like I got stabbed. The Texans had an interesting rookie prospect in James Casey, but he’s down with a minor knee injury of his own. So what now?
I gathered enough strength to take an early peak at the waiver wire in the leagues I own Daniels in, and what I found is not pretty. Fred Davis is available in one 10-team league, while Kevin Boss and Bo Scaife look like the best options in my 12-teamer.
Hopefully, our own waiver guru Chris Wesseling will have some better ideas in his Waiver Wired column tomorrow.
You can’t say that Texans coach Gary Kubiak didn’t warn Steve Slaton.
* After Slaton fumbled twice in Week 2, Kubiak said this: “My concern with him, as I told him [Sept. 22], he’s got three balls on the ground in (26) carries in two games. That can’t happen.”
* Following another fumble in Week 6, Kubiak pledged to work with Slaton in practice on his problem: “We’ve got to get his attention from that standpoint. Obviously, fumbles can get you beat. … It’s something Steve has to get corrected.”
* Kubiak was still positive after Slaton lost another fumble in Week 7: “People smell blood because he’s put some balls on the ground. Steve’s our guy, and I have a lot of confidence in him. It’s out job to help him find a way to hold on to the football.”
Obviously, Kubiak ran out of patience in Week 8. He benched Slaton for the rest of the game after a fumble on the Texans’ second series. Slaton now has fumbled seven times in eight games.
To make matters worse for Slaton, Ryan Moats came on and popped off for 126 yards and three touchdowns in the win at Buffalo. Kubiak had this to say Monday about Slaton possibly losing his job, per the Houston Chronicle:
“Ryan took advantage of the situation. We’ll go to next week. We’ll see.”
About the only positive Slaton’s owners can take out of Sunday is Owen Daniels’ injury. Slaton will be needed even more in the passing game, something he excels at.
It also helps that Slaton doesn't have a history of fumbling. He put the ball on the ground just three times on 318 touches last season.
As long as he can string together a few fumble-free games while playing in a committee with Moats and Chris Brown, Slaton should earn his team’s trust back. Regardless, it will be interesting to see what Kubiak has to say about Slaton at this afternoon's press conference.
Kevin Smith is part of a dying breed. Since Week 10 of last season, Smith has been a true feature back in every sense of the word. He gets about 20 carries every Sunday, he plays on third-downs and he doesn’t rotate series. What thanks does he get? Nicks, pains and a possible plan to reduce his workload.
After Smith aggravated his shoulder injury and tweaked his foot against the Rams Sunday, coach Jim Schwartz hinted that Maurice Morris will play a bigger role in the offense. Smith left the game early and didn’t come back in even though Schwartz said he could have. Morris picked up 63 yards on 14 carries while Smith got 45 yards on 16 carries. Here are quotes, courtesy of the Detroit Free Press:
“[Morris] did a good job, and that’s why we signed Maurice in the offseason,” Schwartz said. “He’s a running back that is proven in this league. And he’s gonna need to carry a load for us. He had some injury problems, been set back over the first half of the season, but we need him at full speed and we need him to be able to get some yards like that.”
The truth of the matter is that Smith’s 3.1 yards per carry average on the season is putrid. Is he getting worn down? Probably.
Over Smith’s last 16 NFL games, he’s touched the ball 349 times (308 rushes, 41 catches). In his final year of college, the Central Florida coaches strapped a saddle to his back. He carried the ball a stunning 450 times in 2007. These numbers are too high for someone of his size (6’1/211).
Smith was a valuable fantasy player mostly because of his workload. He’s currently the No. 19 fantasy RB in non-PPR leagues heading into the Monday night game. That value looks like it’s about to take a hit.
October 31, 2009
In case you haven’t been constantly refreshing our Player News Page all week (shame on you), here’s the latest news on all the injuries for Week 8.
*** Designates a true game-time decision.
Check that player news page about an hour before each game’s kickoff to find out the final inactives.
Also, use Gregg’s updated rankings and Evan’s matchup column for help with lineup decisions.
BRONCOS at RAVENS
- Joe Flacco (ankle) is a little sore but shouldn’t be limited in any way.
TEXANS at BILLS
- Andre Johnson’s reputation as a really tough player grows this week as he’ll play through a lung bruise.
- Shawn Nelson (concussion) is out.
- Trent Edwards (concussion) has been medically cleared but is out.
BROWNS at BEARS
- Phil Dawson (calf) is finally listed as probable.
- Adrian Peterson (knee) is back but is the No. 3 RB.
RAMS at LIONS
*** Calvin Johnson (knee) is a full blown game-time decision. Impossible to even guess right now if he’ll go.
- Matthew Stafford (knee) is expected to start despite being listed as questionable.
- Donnie Avery (shoulder) is nicked up all over but will start.
SEAHAWKS at COWBOYS
- Matt Hasselbeck (ribs) rested a little this week but is fine.
VIKINGS at PACKERS
- Percy Harvin (illness) is questionable but is fully expected to start.
*** Bernard Berrian (hamstring) practiced on a limited basis Friday and is a game-time decision. He’s not a strong play even if he suits up.
- Jermichael Finley (knee) almost certainly will not play. Donald Lee should get the majority of snaps.
49ERS at COLTS
*** Reggie Wayne (groin) practiced Friday, making him a likely to play. But he’s still a game-time decision.
- Donald Brown (shoulder) will almost certainly miss the game. Joseph Addai gets a big boost.
- Anthony Gonzalez (knee) is still out.
DOLPHINS at JETS
- David Clowney (ankle) is expected to play but should be benched with Jerricho Cotchery back.
- Jerricho Cotchery (hamstring) is listed as questionable but is fully expected to play.
RAIDERS at CHARGERS
- Chaz Schilens (foot) is still not ready to return.
JAGUARS at TITANS
- Javon Ringer (back) will not play.
- Nate Washington (quad) will start in a great matchup, but can Vince Young get him the ball?
PANTHERS at CARDINALS
- Muhsin Muhammad (knee) will not play, giving Dwayne Jarrett an opportunity.
- Dante Rosario (knee) will not play.
- Jonathan Stewart (heel) is listed as questionable but will play in a tough matchup.
- Anquan Boldin (ankle) practiced on a limited basis every day this week and is expected to play.
GIANTS at EAGLES
*** Brian Westbrook (concussion) still hasn’t been ruled out but isn’t expected to play. It will almost certainly be the LeSean McCoy show.
*** Mario Manningham (shoulder) says he’ll play but is a game-time decision.
- DeSean Jackson (foot) missed a little practice time but he was never in doubt.
- Ahmad Bradshaw (ankle) is risking a serious injury by playing, but he’ll go.
FALCONS at SAINTS
*** Jason Snelling (hamstring) didn’t practice this week and is questionable. He’s not an option.
- Jerious Norwood (hip) is questionable and also not an option.
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